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Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Updated Odds & Pick: Back to the Well with Lane Kiffin (Saturday, Oct. 3)

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Updated Odds & Pick: Back to the Well with Lane Kiffin (Saturday, Oct. 3) article feature image

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Corral.

  • Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels travel to Lexington, Kentucky, in hopes of securing their first win of the 2020 season against the Kentucky Wildcats.
  • With Kiffin at the helm, Ole Miss shouldn't have a problem finding big plays and putting points on the scoreboard.
  • Collin Wilson breaks down the game with a pick and updated odds below.

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds

Kentucky Odds -6.5 [BET NOW]
Ole Miss Odds +6.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline -265/+210 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 63.5 [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network

Odds updated Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Get up to a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Watching the Ole Miss offense will not lack in entertainment throughout 2020. In Lane Kiffin’s first game as the Rebels head coach, there were 78 plays in 11 personnel. Matt Corral was fantastic without pressure, completing 18-of-22 passes for a 130.1 passer rating. Elijah Moore was the primary target, with 10 receptions and 227 total yards, including 106 yards after the catch.

Where Ole Miss struggled was on the defensive front. Mississippi posted the second-worst success rate among all active FBS defenses. The Rebels also rank in the bottom-10 in defending explosiveness after facing Bo Nix and a skilled group of Auburn receivers.

Many Kentucky season ticket-holders will point to the three turnovers as the reason for the loss to Auburn. But there were other contributing factors, such as the Wildcats’ failure to engineer a single explosive drive, plus Auburn’s 170 hidden yards that shifted the offensive rules of engagement.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The handicap in this game comes down to the Kentucky defense stopping an explosive Ole Miss offensive attack. The Wildcats did a great job stuffing Auburn’s runs 10 times in 29 plays, but two explosive drives through the air could be troublesome moving forward.

The Kentucky defense gave up big yardage to Auburn’s core of talented skill position players. Ole Miss has no shortage of playmakers on offense either, as Kiffin disguises his offense presnap. Although the Rebels lined up solely in 11 personnel last week, 71% of running plays utilized pre-snap motion as the offense changed gears in and out of no-huddle. Of the 44 passing plays called by Kiffin, 13 were play-action and five were screens.

Kiffin’s offense should continue to confound and bust explosive plays against Kentucky. Ole Miss ran plays at a pace of 20.9 seconds, which will bring a level of tempo that Kentucky did not see against Auburn.

If Ole Miss is allowed to move up and down the field, then Kentucky will need to deliver more touches to its star running back. Kavosiey Smoke averaged 8.9 yards per carry on just seven rushing attempts.

Kavosiey Smoke beats Smoke Monday for a UK TD!💨

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 26, 2020

In a game that should go back and forth, the Wildcats defense may take a few drives to adjust. Look for the Rebels to put up their fair share of points and go over the total early.

The Bet: Ole Miss +6.5; First Half Over 29.5

[Bet Ole Miss +6.5 at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]

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