The Oregon State Beavers take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas, on Saturday, Sept. 5. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Houston is favored by -20.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1800. Oregon State, meanwhile, enters as a +20.5 underdog and is +980 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my Oregon State vs. Houston prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 5.
Oregon State vs Houston Prediction
- Oregon State vs. Houston Pick: Oregon State Team Total Over 13.5 (Play to 14)
My Houston vs. Oregon State best bet is on the Beavers to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon State vs Houston Odds
| Oregon St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -106 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +980 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -114 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -1800 |
- Oregon State vs Houston point spread: Oregon State +20.5 (-106), Houston -20.5 (-114)
- Oregon State vs Houston over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Oregon State vs Houston moneyline: Oregon State +980, Houston -1800
Oregon State vs Houston College Football Preview
Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview
Oregon State ushers in a new era under JaMarcus Shephard after it saw diminishing results under Trent Bray (7-17 in two seasons).
Shephard comes from Alabama and is hailed as an ace recruiter. Lo and behold, he hit the recruiting trail hard this year, bringing in 21 transfers.
Quarterback Braden Atkinson tops the list of newcomers after he threw for 3,600 yards and 34 touchdowns as a true freshman; his efforts won him the Jerry Rice Award for the FCS' top freshman player.
Atkinson beat out veteran Maalik Murphy for the QB1 spot, and his ceiling could be immense.
He'll play behind an offensive line that should be the strength of the team.
Four of the five rising starters have Division I starting experience, and all-conference-caliber guard Tyler Voltin returns to the lineup after missing last year to injury. Sophomore center Carter Guillaume started 12 games at Southeast Missouri State as a true freshman before seeing limited time at Louisville last year.
Oregon State also adds receiver Xayvion Noland, a 5-foot-6 receiver who still managed to average 22.5 yards per reception at UTRGV a season ago.
The pieces are there for new offensive coordinator Mitch Dahlen, who comes with Shephard from Alabama and should install a Kalen DeBoer-inspired attack.
The Beavers' defense is largely made up of FCS transfers, but new defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre is an FBS veteran as both a play-caller and head coach.
Cornerback Trey Glasper (nine starts as a freshman) and defensive tackle Jacob Schuster headline the defensive production, and this unit should improve over its No. 94 finish in Points Per Drive allowed.
Both sides of the football should see a massive boost this year.
Atkinson and a new system breathe life into what was one of the worst offenses in the country, while returning production on defense should help that side boost.
Improvement is inbound for Oregon State, and returns could be seen as early as this year, although it will have to traverse an impossible first few weeks with Houston, Texas Tech and Montana on the schedule.
Houston Cougars Betting Preview
Among the list of "Google Me" coaches sits Willie Fritz. No matter the location, Fritz does two correlated things: (a) improve football programs rapidly and (b) win football games.
After his 4-8 start, Houston exploded to a 10-win ranked season that included a win over LSU in the Texas Bowl.
Quarterback Conner Weigman found new life and, though the defense took a step back, it did enough to win games. In Year 2, Fritz touts a .730 win rate; in Year 3, that stays steady at .725.
Weigman returns and poses a significant threat as a revamped passer and dynamic rusher. Only two quarterbacks attempted more designed rushes (among non-option teams) than Weigman, who ran for 847 non-sack yards and 11 touchdowns.
Makhi Hughes enters as the presumed RB1 after a failed stint at Oregon. Hughes was recruited by Fritz and rushed for nearly 2,800 yards over two seasons under offensive coordinator Slade Nagle at Tulane.
All-Big 12 wide receiver Amare Thomas returns, and Fritz added Oregon State WR1 Trent Walker (1,724 yards the last two seasons).
Nine FBS starters return on defense, most prominently all-conference cornerback Will James. Two NFL-level players depart in that secondary, but it should remain one of the Big 12's better units.
There's a ton of experience both up front and in the linebacking corps, and defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong is one of the better young defensive play-callers.
Even with a very strong secondary last year, teams found moderate success passing against the Cougars. Teams averaged a 44.4% Passing Success Rate (right around average), and their 6.98 yards per dropback checks in at 82nd.
With a September that involves pass-heavy attacks in Oregon State and Georgia Southern — plus an immensely talented passing game in Texas Tech — that secondary and the front's ability to get home will be tested right out of the gate.
Oregon State vs Houston Pick, Betting Analysis
Houston has been the favorite side since this line was hung over the summer. The Cougars jumped from -18.5 to as high as -21.5, while the total ticked down a notch.
Since Houston received a majority of the steam and the total did not inflate, Oregon State's team total took the brunt of the adjustment. At one point, you could find the Beavers' team total as high as 16.5. Now, it sits at 13.5.
That three-point adjustment is just too much.
Perhaps this evaluation crashes and burns with an overexuberance on Atkinson's translation to FBS football. But typically, passers as prolific as he is (3,600 yards, 34 TDs) translate pretty well:
- Cam Ward: 4,600 yards at Incarnate Word; Jerry Rice Award winner; No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick
- Bailey Zappe: 3,800 yards at Houston Baptist; set the NCAA record for passing touchdowns
- Austin Reed: 4,000 yards at West Florida; 3,300-yard passer at Western Kentucky
Plus, see Marcus Stokes' debut last week at Memphis after throwing for 4,000 yards at West Florida.
The most experienced unit comes on the offensive line, which returns Division I 56 starts. While I doubt this is really a "dominant" unit, it's not a disastrous one, and the injection of Voltin back into the lineup isn't insignificant.
Should this unit simply hold up against Houston's front, Oregon State's offense could really move the ball with a pass-heavy approach from the DeBoer system.
The bottom line is, there's enough talent on this roster to score two touchdowns.
I think the talent combination of Atkinson and a receiving corps with proven downfield ability could even make this game interesting, if not for a brief while.
I'll focus on the overcorrection to the team total and consider backing this offense until last year's 134th finish is wiped from the ledger.
Pick: Oregon State Team Total Over 13.5 (Play to 14)
Oregon State vs Houston Betting Trends
