Purdue vs Northwestern Odds, Prediction: Wildcats Now Favored
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Garnett Hollis Jr.
Purdue vs Northwestern Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
After a tumultuous offseason that saw their head coach unceremoniously fired after a hazing scandal, the Northwestern Wildcats are fighting for bowl eligibility.
Meanwhile, at 3-7, this season has to be a disappointment for Ryan Walters and the Purdue Boilermakers.
Despite the discrepancy in records, these teams are pretty evenly matched. Let's dive in, look for the betting edge and make a Purdue vs. Northwestern pick.
What's gone wrong for Purdue this year?
Well, after losing Aidan O'Connell to the NFL, replacement signal-caller Hudson Card has been streaky at best. With a quarterback rocking a PFF grade of 68, it's no surprise that this offense has been lagging.
The Boilermakers have been somewhat efficient this year (67th in Success Rate), but everything else has been subpar, to put it nicely. They rank 117th in explosiveness, 115th in Points per Opportunity and 95th in Havoc Allowed.
Their rushing attack is at least average, ranking 54th in Success Rate and 97th in explosiveness.
When passing the ball, they rank 79th in Success Rate and 121st in explosiveness. The Boilermakers aren't built to play from behind.
On the defensive side of the ball, the story is similar. The Boilermakers rank 58th in Success Rate Allowed and 60th in total Havoc.
However, they give up a lot of points as they rank 112th in explosiveness and 109th in Points per Opportunity Allowed. They're particularly prone to giving up the deep pass and rank 125th in passing explosiveness allowed.
On the other side of the field, the Wildcats are coming off a great 24-10 victory over Wisconsin a week after dropping an ugly 10-7 contest to Iowa.
Northwestern has shown resiliency all season, as it would have been easy to write the team off this season after the hazing scandal.
NU has built its identity around limiting the big plays on defense. The Wildcats rank eighth in explosiveness allowed on defense, and it's a good thing they limit the big plays because they allow other teams to move the ball efficiently and rank 90th in Success Rate Allowed.
On offense, the identity has been built around converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns, as Northwestern ranks 25th in Points per Opportunity.
Just like on defense, Northwestern's offense struggles in terms of Success Rate (95th) and explosiveness allowed (125th).
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Northwestern match up statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 79 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 77 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 60 |
Northwestern Offense vs. Purdue Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 128 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 97 | |
| Havoc | 96 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 100 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 79 | 27 |
| PFF Coverage | 133 | 77 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 130 | 54 |
| Middle 8 | 92 | 66 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (40) | 26.3 (56) |
| Rush Rate | 51.9% (80) | 54.9% (84) |
Purdue vs Northwestern
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams are pretty evenly matched, and our model lines this game at Purdue -1.5. In this scenario, I'm happy to take the points with Northwestern.
Pick: Northwestern +3
Editor's Note: The Purdue vs. Northwestern spread recently moved, and Northwestern now sits as a -2.5 favorite.
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