The Sam Houston Bearkats take on the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces, N.M. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Sam Houston is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and comes in at +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here’s my Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 2.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Prediction
- Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Pick: New Mexico State ML +115
My New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston best bet is on the Aggies to win outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Spread: Sam Houston -2.5, New Mexico State +2.5
- Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Over/Under: 53.5 Points
- Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Moneyline: Sam Houston -140, New Mexico State +120
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State College Football Betting Preview
Sam Houston State Bearkats Betting Preview: New Scheme, No Success
Sam Houston comes in off a bye week last week and is searching for answers after a 55-0 beatdown at Texas on Sept. 20. The Bearkats have spent the majority of their time this season on the road, as this will be their fourth road contest in five games.
We've seen a change in offensive philosophy for Phil Longo, with the Bearkats migrating to a more uptempo offense while trying to incorporate a more pass-heavy scheme.
However, quarterback play has been inefficient thus far. SHSU is completing just 58% of its passes while averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with Hunter Watson and Mabrey Mettauer rotating.
The ground game has been unreliable and non-explosive for Sam Houston, running for just 106 yards on 58 attempts combined over the last two weeks.
We've seen this offense experience growing pains because the Bearkats don't have the personnel to run their system. That lack of offensive production has been a big driver in the 0-4 record this season.
Defensively, the Bearkats have been torched by every opponent they've faced this season, as the defense is surrendering 484 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.
The front seven creates very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the coverage unit grades out as the worst in Conference USA, according to PFF.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Bounce-Back Spot?
New Mexico State lost to rival New Mexico last week in a game that was very competitive into the fourth quarter.
Quarterback Logan Fife threw the ball well for the Aggies, who racked up six explosive pass plays.
However, the rushing attack has been the worst in FBS this season, averaging 39 yards per game on 1.5 yards per attempt. Drives were consistently stalled by the ineffective rushing attack, along with an inability to protect the quarterback.
Defensively, New Mexico State was torched by the Lobos, who racked up 476 yards on 6.9 yards per play. The Aggies couldn't create a pass rush, as UNM quarterback Jack Layne completed 23 of his 30 pass attempts for 303 yards and four touchdowns.
The ground game was a different story, though. NMSU's run defense has been a strength all season, and its game against the Lobos was no exception, as UNM averaged just 3.5 yards per carry.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Pick, Betting Analysis
The scheduling spot favors Sam Houston situationally, as it has extra rest off the bye week, while NMSU is coming off a loss against its rival and now has five days to regroup before getting back on the field.
With that said, I can't warrant making the Bearkats a favorite on the road here, and I did took New Mexico State on the moneyline at +115.
I'm encouraged by the Aggies' passing attack. That unit should have opportunities to exploit the Sam Houston secondary, which ranks 106th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Pass and 119th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
The Bearkcats don't generate enough pressure to rattle opposing quarterbacks, and we can't expect Sam Houston to perform well enough in early downs to force New Mexico State into unmanageable third-down distances.
Defensively, the Aggies rank sixth nationally in EPA Per Rush allowed and eighth in Rushing Success Rate allowed. Sam Houston's ground game is going to struggle here, and Watson isn't a strong enough passer to exploit the weakness in the NMSU secondary.
Situationally, Sam Houston has been terrible on third down and in the red zone. The Bearkats have converted just 7-of-51 third-down attempts this season, and only two of their eight red-zone trips have reached the end zone.
I just can't trust this offense to move the ball consistently and keep drives alive. This team isn't good enough on money downs or in the red zone to put points on the scoreboard, especially on the road.
Sam Houston has played one game since Sept. 6, so we could see some rust after back-to-back layoffs.
We're already seeing this season as a “Year 0” situation for Longo. The offense doesn't have the personnel to run his scheme and the defense is completely void of talented players, so I have no choice but to take the home 'dog to win.
Pick: New Mexico State ML +115
