The San Diego State Aztecs take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EST on CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State is favored by one point on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 41.5 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. New Mexico prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 28.
San Diego State vs New Mexico Prediction
- San Diego State vs. New Mexico Pick: New Mexico +1.5 or Better
My New Mexico vs. San Diego St best bet is on the Lobos to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
San Diego State vs New Mexico Odds
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
- San Diego State vs New Mexico point spread: San Diego State -1
- San Diego State vs New Mexico over/under: 41.5
- San Diego State vs New Mexico moneyline: San Diego St -120, New Mexico -100
San Diego State vs New Mexico Pick
San Diego State has been one of the most pleasant surprises this season, perfectly symbolizing the beauty of the new college football landscape, which is marked by incredible year-over-year turnarounds (in both directions).
Having won (and covered) eight of their past nine games, the Aztecs now find themselves all alone atop the Mountain West standings. They simply need to win in Albuquerque to clinch a spot in the Mountain West championship.
While they can still get there with a loss, they may need help from others or the dreaded computer ratings in a multi-team tiebreaker.
What has led to the remarkable turnaround? Despite head coach Sean Lewis being known for his "flash fast" offense at Kent State, it's actually the defense that has carried the Aztecs all season long. Cornerback Chris Johnson is the star of the show and will play at the next level, but the entire group is stingy.
The offense, on the other hand, remains extremely limited. It's a unit I currently rank outside the top 100 nationally.
Lucky Sutton is a competent running back, which is what the Aztecs try to lean on as a complement to their relentless defense.
However, there is almost no juice in the passing attack (122nd in EPA), which at least could hit some explosives when healthy. Well, that's no longer the case with two starting receivers now lost for the season due to injury.
The most critical loss came recently when Jordan Napier (who has almost twice as many catches as the next leading receiver) went down against Boise State. Since then, the already anemic passing attack has turned to dust.
Over his past five games, quarterback Jayden Denegal has completed just 46 of 93 pass attempts (49.4%) for 548 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions. It's even uglier over the past two games, where he didn't even throw for over 100 combined yards.
That includes last week's 25-3 victory over a horrid San Jose State defense. The Spartans actually out-gained the Aztecs 268-248 in that game, but couldn't overcome an early injury to their starting quarterback and poor luck on fourth downs and in the turnover department.
The wide receiver injuries will be felt even more this week since the optimal way to attack this New Mexico defense is through the air. The Lobos have been extremely stingy against the run (which is why I loved them against Air Force), but are very vulnerable against opposing offenses that can efficiently move the ball through the air.
That is certainly not San Diego State, especially without Napier.
While I did sing the praises of this San Diego State defense earlier, I do believe the Aztecs are a tad overrated, given that they've faced one of the easiest schedules in the country.
Not only is it a laughable schedule on paper, but they have also benefited from facing more backup or benched quarterbacks than any team in the country. Just take a look at the quarterbacks they have faced:
- Carson Conklin (Fresno State), who was the original backup, has since been benched.
- Tama Amisone (San Jose State), who came in early after Walker Eget got hurt.
- Max Cutforth (Boise State) in his second career start after Maddux Madsen's injury.
- Carter Jones (Nevada) in his first-ever start.
- Jackson Brousseau (Colorado State) in his second career start.
- Josh Holst (NIU), who was benched shortly after.
- Jaxon Potter (Washington State), who was benched shortly after (36-13 Wazzu win).
The only other quarterback they beat in league play was Wyoming's Kaden Anderson, who has arguably been the worst starting quarterback in the country to keep his job.
It's almost impossible to face a more manageable schedule of opposing passing attacks. In fact, their only Mountain West game against a quarterback who began the year as the starter was against Hawaii, a game the Aztecs lost 38-6 on the island.
Keep in mind that New Mexico not only had the more difficult schedule on paper by a substantial margin, but also faced Boise State and San Jose State with their starting quarterbacks in games where neither opponent could get much on the ground. Those were the only two league losses for the Lobos, who have since won five straight to give themselves a chance at reaching the Mountain West championship with a victory.
If Boise State loses to Utah State, New Mexico would clinch a spot with a win and face San Diego State again in the title game. If Boise State wins, then it would come down to computer ratings to break a three-way tie (I believe).
In conclusion, I do think the San Diego State defense is a bit overrated based on the laughable schedule of opposing quarterbacks it has faced, and the Aztecs don't have the chops in the passing game to exploit the New Mexico defense.
While it won't be easy for the Lobos on offense, I do trust Jason Eck to scheme up enough points to get this win. Look out for the quarterback run packages with James Laubstein, who has given the offense some extra juice over the past month.
Lastly, SDSU usually has a significant edge in Special Teams, but New Mexico can match it there.
Pick: New Mexico +1.5 or Better
