As it always does, a Hawaii home game under the lights will give bettors a late-night bail-out opportunity should things go awry in the early going Saturday. Sharps, on the other hand, don't treat the game as such.
They aren't waiting around to bet this game, and have made moves on both the spread and total throughout the week — the latter perhaps being inspired by the weather forecast.
Wind speeds of 20-21 mph are expected throughout the entirety of the game, and if history is any indication, that could significantly increase the scoring difficulty.
Since 2005, games with average wind speeds of at least 13 mph have hit the under at a 57% rate — a record of 513-389-34. That clip improves to 62% (63-38-3) when the average speed is 20 mph or greater.
The windy under trend is not exactly a secret, and the betting splits on this game reflect that. About 70% of bettors are taking the under, and our tools indicate that sharps are among that majority.
Under tickets have accounted for 87% of actual money being bet on the total, meaning they're coming from bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be pros. Sports Insights' Bet Signals confirm that to be the case, as they've revealed three steam moves on the under at lines of 50.5, 49 and 48.
Behind the sharp action and weather forecast, oddsmakers have dropped this number from 51 to 47.
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As mentioned, the total isn't the only thing catching wiseguys' eye in this game. They've been all over the home team since this game opened at a pick'em, and despite Hawaii's mere 24% backing, the Warriors are up to a field-goal favorite at some books.
SI Bet Signals have recorded three instances of sharp action on Hawaii — one at the opening pick'em and two at -1.5.
Sharp angles: Under (moved from 51 to 47), Hawaii (moved from pick'em to -3)
