San Jose State vs. Air Force Picks & Betting Odds: Can the Spartans Halt the Triple Option?

San Jose State vs. Air Force Picks & Betting Odds: Can the Spartans Halt the Triple Option? article feature image
Credit:

Nelson Chenault, USA Today Sports.

San Jose State vs. Air Force Picks & Betting Odds

  • Spread: Air Force -19
  • Over/Under: 55.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS Sports Network
  • Location: Colorado Springs, Colo.

All odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Collin Wilson’s San Jose State at Air Force Betting Breakdown

This line is right on target with our projections of Air Force -18 and SP+ makes it Air Force -19, but there’s more than meets the eye for this game.

Those projections don’t account for situational spots or certain advanced statistics.

San Jose State and third-year head coach Brent Brennan are coming off a 31-24 triumph over Arkansas. It was San Jose State’s second win over an FBS opponent since 2017 and was easily the program’s biggest win since 2006. Prior to their $1.5 million trip to Fayetteville, San Jose State was 0-14 in revenue games, losing by a combined score of 551-177.

Do not let the victory at Arkansas fool you into thinking the Spartans are contenders in the Mountain West. San Jose State sits outside the top 100 in plenty of categories. They rank near the bottom of the list in offensive line yards, stuff rate, total defense, sack rate and opponent 3rd down conversion rate.

San Jose State’s poor rush defense now has to take on one of the nation’s elite ground attacks in Colorado Springs, which has an elevation of 6,035 feet. Air Force should exhaust the Spartans, who have lost by a combined score of 82-16 in their two previous trips to Falcon Stadium.

Air Force averages the third-most rushing yards per game this season and its offensive line grades out in the top five in line yards, opportunity rate and stuff rate.

San Jose State will likely go to the air on offense but the Spartans will be met by a sturdy Air Force defense that ranks 35th in opponent passing yards. The Falcons have allowed just six passes of at least 20 yards this season.

This is a bad spot for San Jose State off a program-defining victory. The Falcons have Navy on deck, so Troy Calhoun will do everything against San Jose State to keep the triple-option humming.

The elevation will help Air Force, but expect a lockdown defense and one of the nation’s leading rush attacks to cover the spread.

This line has bounced around between -18 and -19 for a few days, so be sure to find the best number around the market.

The Pick: Air Force -18 or better

Kyle Miller: How I’m Playing the Over/Under

The Spartans offense has a much more challenging task this week as Air Force has one of the best group of five defenses in the country. I don’t see them having much success at all through the air which means Air Force will have the ball a bunch.

Air Force runs the triple option so you know the clock will be ticking for most of the game. The Falcons aren’t known for explosive plays, but San Jose State has done an exceptional job at limiting them. When Air Force scores, it’ll likely take a lot of time to go down the field and score.

I’m expecting a low scoring game.

The Pick: Under 56.5