One of the most highly anticipated college football games in recent memory has arrived.
The No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels host the No. 7 LSU Tigers on Saturday, Sept. 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC in Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford.
Kiffin made major headlines last season when he left the Rebels during their College Football Playoff run to take the Tigers' head coaching position.
In doing so, the former head Reb has become the most hated man in Mississippi.
Oxford will be a madhouse this weekend, and Vaught-Hemingway Stadium will be even crazier. Despite that, Kiffin's Bayou Bengals still enter as -3 favorites with the over/under set at 58.5.
So, where does the value lie? We polled 12 of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total for Saturday's top-10 showdown.
Let's take a look at our Ole Miss vs. LSU picks and college football predictions for Saturday, September 19.
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Ole Miss vs. LSU Spread Picks
Our Staff's Pick: LSU -3
We think Lane Kiffin is inevitable in this game. LSU looks like a wagon.
The Tigers dismantled Clemson and then pieced together a ho-hum game plan in a 30-point win over Louisiana Tech. The defense leads the nation in Success Rate allowed by a large margin (19%) while ranking third in Havoc (30%).
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker and defensive end Princewill Umanmielen are cooking.
The offense hasn’t been overly effective through the air, but the rushing duo of Sam Leavitt and Dilin Jones is lethal.
I love Trinidad Chambliss as much as the next guy, but it’s hard to imagine Ole Miss reaching the heights of last season. Of greater importance, the defense looks like it’s going to be a problem.
Against Louisville, the secondary couldn’t hold up against the skill-position weapons, the rush defense in the front seven was shaky, and the whole unit missed a whopping 25 tackles.
Chambliss will carry them for stretches, but the Rebels' offensive line has struggled to piece together a coherent attack, ranking outside the top 75 nationally in Stuff Rate and Line Yards.
Altogether, it seems like this is a battle between Chambliss and the monster that Kiffin has created. We’re pretty positive that Lane wins that battle.
Ole Miss vs. LSU Over/Under Picks
Over 58.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 58.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Under 58.5
By Joshua Nunn
The total was appropriately set here, with just a slight majority of our staff leaning toward the under. There are reasons to support a lower-scoring game, which I could see playing out here.
LSU has completely smothered its first two opponents, and the Tigers own the nation’s best Defensive Success Rate.
The Tigers defense has given up just 284 total yards through two games, while the defensive line has registered an eye-popping 22 tackles for loss and 12 sacks.
I believe the LSU defensive line can create advantages off the edge and contain Trinidad Chambliss in the pocket. Reducing big plays when Chambliss has to create on the move will be critical here.
LSU’s run defense has also been incredible through two weeks, as the stop unit has allowed just one run of 10-plus yards on 57 opponent rushing attempts.
Ole Miss will run the football, but I expect more methodical drives that require the Rebels to execute on third downs. Ole Miss has struggled on third down so far this season (35%), and the LSU defense has allowed just four third-down conversions all year.
The explosives likely won't be there for Ole Miss, which should help this game trend toward the under.
On the other side, a lot has been made about the LSU injury report, and for good reason. Starting quarterback Sam Leavitt was originally listed as doubtful to play before being upgraded to questionable on Thursday.
I believe he'll play, but LSU has made running the football a focus early on, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers try to establish the run here.
Running back Dilin Jones was excellent against Clemson in the opener, and the quarterback run game has been featured in each of the first two weeks.
Look for the first few possessions to feature the ground attack as part of the opening script when LSU has the ball.
This game has been hyped up all summer, and both teams have plenty of motivation. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see these two teams play a little tight, with more conservative play-calling early on.
I don't foresee a barrage of points like we saw in the second half of Ole Miss’ opener against Louisville, so long as LSU's defensive front continues to leave its mark. This game should stay under the posted total.
Ole Miss vs. LSU Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
