The Michigan State Spartans take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday, Sept. 19. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Notre Dame is favored by -29.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. Michigan State, meanwhile, enters as a +29.5 underdog and is +2500 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame Prediction
- Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Pick: Michigan State +29.5
My Notre Dame vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +2500 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
- Michigan State vs Notre Dame point spread: Notre Dame -29.5 (-110), Michigan State +29.5 (-110)
- Michigan State vs Notre Dame over/under: 52.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Michigan State vs Notre Dame moneyline: Michigan State +2500, Notre Dame -10000
Michigan State vs Notre Dame College Football Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: A Work in Progress
Over the past 12 months, Michigan State has undergone a lot of change. However, there’s been one constant in East Lansing, and that’s quarterback Alessio Milivojevic.
The redshirt sophomore won the starting job in the middle of the 2025 season after Aidan Chiles was benched, and Milivojevic hasn’t looked back.
Since he assumed the starter's role, he has completed 67.3% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just three picks. This season, he’s formed quite the connection with wide receiver Rodney Bullard and tight end Jayden Savoury.
The Spartans are completing passes at a solid clip, but certainly not where they want to be. They rank 63rd in Passing Success Rate and 50th in Passing Down PPA.
The run game can certainly use some work, and while Cam Edwards has looked good in the backfield, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with three touchdowns, Michigan State doesn’t tailor its offense to the ground game. That's largely why it ranks 71st in Success Rate.
I think the schedule masked some of the flaws from Michigan State’s defense, though. This is a decent team, and it has a total stud on the defensive line in Eli Coenen, but there’s still a lot that it needs to work on, primarily against the run.
The Spartans rank 100th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, but they're 35th in Passing Success Rate allowed. That plays perfectly into their opponents, because Notre Dame is a pass-first, run-second team.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Need More From the Ground
I want to be clear when I talk about Notre Dame, because sometimes it can come off as if I’m a hater. But I do think the Fighting Irish sometimes get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to their schedule.
You look at their schedule, and they have only three ranked matchups with just one opponent inside the top 10.
Now, with that being said, this is still a talented football team. CJ Carr is very much in the running for a Heisman Trophy this season, and he's completing his passes at a 71% clip with six touchdowns and no picks.
Based on everything we’ve seen, Marcus Freeman will keep relying on his quarterback to spin the ball because the run game has been mild at best.
Through two games against Wisconsin and Rice, Aneyas Williams is averaging only 4.1 yards per carry, and the team as a whole sits 78th in Rushing Success Rate.
One strength of the Irish is their secondary. Leonard Moore is easily one of the top cornerbacks in the game, and a bona fide first-round draft pick.
But he doesn’t tell the whole story. Safeties Adon Shuler and Luke Talich have been ballhawks, each with a forced fumble.
Not only that, but they have an elite linebacker duo in Jaiden Ausberry and Drayk Bowen, who have primarily been a factor in Notre Dame not allowing a rusher to go over 50 yards in the first two games.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame Pick, Betting Analysis
This is the first time these two programs have faced off since 2017. A fascinating statistic, because before then, they played each other every year.
Either way, the Spartans have always played the Irish hard. I understand it’s two different eras, but it’s a little surprising the spread is listed at 29.5 points given that history.
History doesn’t tell the whole story either. I was critical of the Spartan defense, but I don’t see their weakness being a factor. Williams has been unimpressive against two subpar programs in Rice and Wisconsin.
Michigan State will just need to quiet Carr down a little, which I don’t think is an egregious ask. The spread is too high.
Pick: Michigan State +29.5 (-110)
Michigan State vs Notre Dame Betting Trends
