The LSU Tigers take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, Mississippi, on Saturday, Sept. 19. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
LSU is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -152. Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +126 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19.
LSU vs Ole Miss Prediction
- LSU vs. Ole Miss Pick: LSU -3 · Ole Miss Team Total Under 28.5 · Sam Leavitt Anytime TD
My Ole Miss vs. LSU best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread, the Rebels to go under their team total and LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt to score a touchdown. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
LSU vs Ole Miss Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -122 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +126 |
- LSU vs Ole Miss Spread: LSU -3.5 (+100), Ole Miss +3.5 (-122)
- LSU vs Ole Miss Over/Under: 58.5 (-110o / -110u)
- LSU vs Ole Miss Moneyline: LSU -152, Ole Miss +126
LSU vs Ole Miss College Football Preview
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Defense Steals the Show
The Lane Kiffin era in Baton Rouge has started with a bang. The Tigers have toppled Clemson and Louisiana Tech by a combined score of 96-24.
The rushing attack of running back Dilin Jones and quarterback Sam Leavitt has been lethal.
Jones has forced 13 missed tackles while averaging more than four yards after first contact. Leavitt has produced an even split of scramble and designed runs with 169 rushing yards through two games.
More importantly, Leavitt has been the bell cow in scoring position with five rushing touchdowns.
Leavitt's role on the ground could come from his four interceptions this season, three of which have come on non-blitz downs by the opposing defense.
Surprisingly, the LSU offensive line has allowed 23 pressures on the season, while the receiving targets have dropped six balls. Those drops belong to six different players. Leavitt's integration under center is still in process as he gets to know his receivers.
Slot Winston Watkins Jr. leads in targets, while Trey'Dez Green leads in yards per route run.
The MVP of the LSU team belongs to the defense heading into Ole Miss. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker retained his position with the Kiffin hire and now calls plays for a defense that ranks as the top coverage unit in FBS.
The Tigers also own top-10 ranks in Havoc, Success Rate allowed and Quality Drives allowed. LSU has allowed only six opponent drives to cross the 40-yard line this season, giving up less than three points per trip.
Ole Miss transfer EDGE Princewill Umanmielen has been a one-man Havoc crew with 10 pressures and five sacks.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: Offense to the Rescue
Head coach Pete Golding started off the 2026 season with a signature victory over Louisville and a blowout of Charlotte.
Ole Miss pulled a low 33% post-game win expectancy against the Cardinals in losing the yards-per-play battle, but eight of its 13 offensive possessions contained two or more first downs, while its execution in scoring position determined the winner.
The biggest issue in the Rebels' season debut came with the defense.
Louisville torched Ole Miss in the secondary, as Lincoln Kienholz connected on seven passes that went over 20 yards. Golding and his co-defensive coordinators, Bryan Brown and Patrick Toney, have plenty of data points to correct before LSU.
The Rebels missed 25 tackles against Louisville, followed by another 10 against Charlotte. Ole Miss ranks 132nd in PFF tackle grading, a number that coincides with a coverage grade rank of 129th.
Safety Edwin Joseph and cornerback Dante Core have allowed 6-of-7 targets to be caught with an average yards per reception in the double digits.
Ole Miss will depend on its offense, primarily Heisman Trophy contender Trinidad Chambliss. The quarterback has connected on 70% of passing attempts thus far, maintaining a low turnover-worthy play rate below 2.8%.
The running game will be at full strength for LSU after an injury removed Kewan Lacy from the Louisville game. Lacy returned against Charlotte, gaining 87 yards on 13 rushing attempts while forcing eight missed tackles.
LSU vs Ole Miss Pick, Betting Analysis
Ole Miss finds itself at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball.
Leavitt will be throwing against a Rebels secondary that has given up nine passes of 20 yards or more with 35 missed tackles. Despite throwing four interceptions through two games, Leavitt also has three big-time throws to just a single turnover-worthy play.
The alarming number from the Louisiana Tech box score was 15 pressures, but Ole Miss will attack Leavitt with a pass rush that grades out at 111th, per PFF.
If the Tigers can resolve the highest drop rate of Leavitt's career at 12.8% within the receiver room, LSU should find plenty of explosives through the passing game.
Chambliss will have a much tougher time with execution, as Umanmielen returns to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss ranks mid-FBS in Havoc allowed, so the LSU defensive line will be playing behind the line of scrimmage.
The Rebels have had issues controlling the line of scrimmage with the rushing attack, ranking outside the top 75 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Tigers have missed only half of the tackles compared to the Rebels, suggesting that Lacy and Chambliss will see a decrease in yards after first contact.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for LSU to be favored by six points.
With a dozen analytical categories suggesting the Tigers' defense will have firm control against the Rebels' offense, the game will come down to Leavitt creating explosives against the Ole Miss secondary.
The LSU quarterback already has five rushing touchdowns on the season, an area Kienholz where logged a touchdown against the Ole Miss defense.
Picks:
- LSU -3 or Better
- Ole Miss Team Total Under 28.5
- Sam Leavitt Anytime TD
LSU vs Ole Miss Betting Trends
