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We have a stacked afternoon slate as part of college football's Week 6, and I have two games I'm targeting for betting.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 6, here's the full piece. So, here's my college football picks (afternoon) for Week 6.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 27-15-1 (64.2%)
- Overall: 250-193-4 (56.4%)
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College Football Picks for Week 6 Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Oklahoma +8.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Georgia Tech +7 |
Oklahoma +8.5 vs. Texas
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
What if I told you that both Texas and Oklahoma essentially have the same exact net yards per play this season across similarly difficult schedules?
- Texas: 5.29 yards per play vs. 4.23 yards per play allowed
- Oklahoma: 5.2 yards per play vs. 4.25 yards per play allowed
Most probably wouldn't have guessed that given the perception difference between these two teams.
Everybody is down on the 2-2 Sooners, who got embarrassed at Georgia in a game where John Mateer basically handed the Dawgs a victory on a silver platter. Meanwhile, Texas arrives in Dallas with a perfect 4-0 record and ranked No. 1 in the country.
However, the Longhorns needed about 10 different things to go perfectly right to complete a miraculous comeback against Ohio State in Austin.
Then they almost lost at Tennessee in a game where the Vols played with a true freshman quarterback who looked like a deer in the headlights on every snap, taking 10 snaps and then subsequently getting benched the following week after throwing for 0 yards on eight attempts against Auburn.
It's not like all of those struggles can be attributed to the dominance of a Texas defense that I still believe is a little vulnerable on the back end.
The difference has come down to turnovers. Oklahoma has coughed up the rock 10 times (that includes losing all six fumbles, which is a bit unlucky) to Texas' five.
Mateer rightfully deserves the blame for those giveaways. He has looked lost out there for most of the season behind a beat-up offensive line that still won't have its projected starting left tackle nor a reliable running game to lean on.
However, his overall numbers don't look too dissimilar to Arch Manning's for the entire season.
Just a few weeks ago, Manning finished 16-of-32 for 132 yards against a bad UTSA defense. This Texas offense has plenty of sexy toys, but the sum is less than the parts. The offense just doesn't look right due to subpar offensive line play.
Does Texas figure it all out during the bye week? It's possible, but it will now face arguably the best defense in the country that should have a much cleaner bill of health.
Oklahoma leads the country in pressure rate with Brent Venables relentlessly bringing blitzes in passing situations, which Texas should face plenty of since I believe the Sooners will win the early-downs battle at the line of scrimmage, especially with a healthy David Stone back in the lineup.
That's when the Manning mistakes and drive-killing sacks (he took six against the Vols) should come.
There's a reason this total sits below 40. This game should be ugly. Don't expect your older brother's Red River Shootout. This is more like the Red River Repulsion or Red River Repugnance or Red River Red-Headed Stepchild.
Whatever you want to call it, points should come at a premium, which makes the underdog much more attractive.
I also believe the bye week came at a much better time for the Sooners. Mateer needed a break following his disastrous start to the season, and the Sooners needed to get their backups reps in case they need to make a change if the turnovers continue (Venables said he considered doing so vs. Georgia).
This is basically Oklahoma's season with two losses already, so this is the game where you throw everything you have at Texas, including running Mateer until his feet fall off.
Schematically, that could give Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp's aggressive defense issues. And all it might take to cover this number is a score on the scripted portion of the game, plus a broken play or two.
Maybe Mateer turns it over three times, and the Sooners get blown out. That's certainly in the cards, but Manning could do the same.
I'll take the best defense in the country (and superior special teams unit) for my money catching over a touchdown in a prime buy-low/sell-high spot against an offense that has yet to really find its footing this year.
Boomer Sooner!
Oklahoma vs. Texas Trend
Over the past two seasons, Texas has gone just 3-7 ATS (30%) in SEC play away from home. However, two of those covers came against Oklahoma by a combined score of 57-9.
Pick: Oklahoma +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
Georgia Tech +7 vs. Duke
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
Georgia Tech has been dreadful to start the season with one win over Mercer and a trio of losses that haven't aged well against Colorado, Stanford and Tennessee.
As a result, I believe we're now getting some value on the Ramblin' Wreck, who may benefit from a much-needed bye week after losing both coordinators and dealing with so much roster turnover in the offseason.
Conversely, Duke has raced out to a perfect 4-0 start both SU and ATS. However, I'm not entirely sold on this Blue Devils squad as a potential ACC sleeper as some have started to suggest.
Duke has beaten absolutely nobody to start the season, and none of their wins have aged well:
- Tulane (arguably should be 0-4)
- Illinois (two wins over UAB and Southern Illinois)
- Stanford
- William & Mary
That schedule ranks 125th nationally in difficulty (Tech sits at 67th in comparison), and that might be underselling what those wins may look like by the end of the season.
There's also the potential for some hurricane impact with rain and heavy winds, which has driven the total way down in this game. If the forecast holds up, this game should be ultra low-scoring, creating more value on the 'dog.
Georgia Tech can also just completely sell out to slow down running back Nate Sheppard, who has carried the Duke offense so far this season.
Quarterback Walker Eget and this Duke passing attack in inclement weather just isn't all that scary, so the Yellow Jackets can load the box without much worry about their back end.
Give me Brent Key catching a touchdown at home to pick up his first cover of the season in a desperate spot off a bye against a one-dimensional Duke offense with some potential weather to even the playing field.
Buzz Buzz!
Georgia Tech vs. Duke Trend
Brent Key has historically been a cash cow as an underdog. Since taking over as the head man at Georgia Tech, he owns a gaudy 17-7 ATS record (70.8%) when catching points, covering by over nine points per game on average. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark at home.
Pick: Georgia Tech +7 or Better
