The SMU Mustangs take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C., on Saturday, Oct. 25. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW.
SMU is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. Wake Forest, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Wake Forest prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
SMU vs Wake Forest Prediction
- SMU vs. Wake Forest Pick: SMU -3
My Wake Forest vs. SMU best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the point spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs Wake Forest Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- SMU vs Wake Forest Spread: SMU -3, Wake Forest +3
- SMU vs Wake Forest Over/Under: 54 Points
- SMU vs Wake Forest Moneyline: SMU -165, Wake Forest +140
SMU vs Wake Forest College Football Betting Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Offense Excels Despite Mistakes
It's not quite the hot 6-1 start SMU was off to last season, but the Mustangs are still very much a contender in the ACC. They still control their own destiny in the ACC Championship race with two massive games against Miami and Louisville upcoming.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings stands second in the ACC in passing yards (1,952), though an increased volume from last year has led to seven interceptions through seven games.
The receiving corps lacks a premier pass catcher, as Romello Brinson hasn't quite broken through the way preseason forecasts suggested. Six players have at least 19 targets, but no individual stands out as the go-to option for Jennings.
SMU's experienced offensive line is one of the ACC's top units. However, Jennings sometimes tries too hard to extend a play and takes unnecessary sacks. His 22.4% pressure-to-sack ratio is the third-highest in the ACC and within the NFL "danger zone" for prospects (generally set at 20%).
The good news is Jennings has been pressured only 58 times this year, 10th in the ACC.
Jennings appeared on the injury report this past week but was a full participant at practice. Recent injury reports about quarterbacks have actually been quite wrong (Garrett Nussmeier last week, Maverick McIvor a surprise inactive Tuesday night).
Monitor Jennings' availability this week closely, but don't overreact to early movements based on speculation.
Success can be found through the air against SMU.
Elite passers like Baylor's Sawyer Roberson and TCU's Josh Hoover managed to stuff the stat sheet in wins, while Clemson youngster Christopher Vizzina went for over 300 and threw three touchdowns with no turnovers just last week.
Does this success translate to SMU's upcoming opponent in Robby Ashford? He didn't play in Wake Forest's 39-14 win at Oregon State, but the market suggests he makes a return.
SMU's secondary is certainly its weakness and can be exploited by a talented receiving corps.
However, it's the lack of a truly dynamic pass rush that's hurt the passing defense the most. While the Mustangs' front isn't bad by any definition of the word, it's certainly regressed from previous years when it was one of the better rushes in the country.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Preview: Can They Stay the Course?
Wake Forest stands at 4-2 after seven weeks and is just a game away from surpassing its preseason win total already.
With opponents like North Carolina and Delaware on the slate, Wake almost certainly exceeds its regular-season total and competes for, if not secures, a bowl berth.
The early success is twofold. First, the Demon Deacons are simply better than expected, highlighted in a 30-29 overtime home loss to unbeaten Georgia Tech. Secondly, they have had a favorable road to 4-2.
Wake beat an overmatched Kennesaw State team in its first game under Jerry Mack with multiple delays, 10-9. Its other two FBS wins came over 2-5 Virginia Tech (which fired its head coach) and 0-7 Oregon State (a bottom-tier FBS team).
Ashford has been a good spark for the Deacs, particularly on the ground and with explosive passes.
Running back Demond Claiborne is a truly premier rusher, averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 69 attempts — 10 of which went for 15-plus yards. Claiborne is prone to putting the ball on the turf, but the return on investment can't be argued with.
Veteran defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton has done a nice job with this unit, flipping it from 107th in points per drive in 2024 to 12th through six games in 2025.
Granted, the quality of opposing offenses must be mentioned. Georgia Tech, talented as it is offensively, has underproduced so far, and three of its four FBS wins have come against offenses worse than 95th in points per drive.
The truth about the expected capability of this defense against quality opponents surely lies somewhere between its on-paper output and being a complete fraud.
That holds true for the team in general. Is this truly an 8-4 team waiting to happen? Unlikely. But it's also not a bottom-tier ACC producer right this moment.
However, after seven weeks, there's certainly a sell-high opportunity with Wake Forest. Let's explore.
SMU vs Wake Forest Pick, Betting Analysis
Wake Forest opened this game as a +6.5 underdog but was bet down to +3 as of midweek.
Let's do some quick resume comparison here: both teams have two losses, one by about 10 points and another by a single score.
SMU has four FBS wins against opponents that average 87th in SP+ and 77.3 in FPI. Wake Forest has three FBS wins against opponents that average 97.3 in SP+ and 89.3 in FPI. Two of Wake's opponents are either in Year 1 under a new coach (Game 1, in fact!) or have fired their coach this year.
Per FPI resume rankings, Wake Forest has played the 109th-ranked schedule, while SMU checks in at 77. Wake ranks 46th in net points per drive, but SMU clears it at 33rd.
Simply put, SMU has won more convincingly against a more competitive schedule than Wake Forest.
The concern here comes from the schedule spot for the Mustangs — this game comes after a road win over Clemson and before a massive home tilt with Miami. Could this be a look-ahead spot for SMU?
SMU is still undefeated in ACC play, and its route to returning to the championship game is wide open. But with two losses on its ledger (to teams not currently ranked), SMU's path to the College Football Playoff comes almost exclusively through an ACC Championship.
It's unlikely the Mustangs overlook the Demon Deacons this week with that fact in mind.
SMU is the superior team that has performed better against a superior schedule. Wake doesn't carry a huge home-field advantage here, so I'm laying the number with the Mustangs.
Pick: SMU -3
SMU vs Wake Forest Betting Trends
