The South Alabama Jaguars take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, Alabama. Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Auburn is favored by -24.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my South Alabama vs. Auburn prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13.
South Alabama vs Auburn Prediction
- South Alabama vs. Auburn Pick: Auburn Team Total Over 40.5
My Auburn vs. South Alabama best bet is on the Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs Auburn Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -108 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +1350 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -112 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -3500 |
- S. Alabama vs Auburn point spread: Auburn -24.5 (-112), South Alabama +24.5 (-108)
- S. Alabama vs Auburn over/under: 55.5 (-105o / -115u)
- S. Alabama vs Auburn moneyline: South Alabama +1350, Auburn -3500
South Alabama vs Auburn Preview
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: [Editorial Language]
South Alabama is coming into this game 1-1, with a win over FCS Morgan State and a loss against Tulane. Despite being down by 16 with six minutes to play, the Jaguars managed to come storming back before missing the game-tying two-point conversion and failing to convert the onside kick.
However, the Jaguars' defense was the reason they got put in the hole in the first place. From an efficiency perspective, they are damn near disastrous so far. They rank 99th nationally in Opponent Average Field position, 105th in Success Rate allowed and 123rd in Opponent's Finishing Drives. And that was against an FCS team and a Group of Four Tulane squad.
In particular, they struggled against the run, ranking 101st in Rushing PPA Allowed and 105th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Tulane noticed and did not let up, with three players rushing for 60 or more yards. Assuming Auburn has working eyes, they will have picked up on this with the tape. Expect some good old-fashioned SEC ground and pound out of the Tigers.
The Jaguars' offense is a bit tougher to measure. The first game was against an FCS opponent, and it didn't come alive until the last ten minutes of the game against Tulane. The question is, will we get the Jaguars team that scored 14 points in six minutes? Or will we get the team that was down 33-17 in the third quarter?
Unfortunately, I think it may be the latter. Despite the late-game success, Jaguars QB Bishop Davenport has struggled, posting only a 54.5 PFF grade and a Turnover Worthy Play rate of 8.9% compared to a Big Time Throw Rate of 2.4%. I don't expect him to improve against Auburn. See below for South Alabama's key metrics:
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Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: [Editorial Language]
The Tigers are coming into this game fresh off a 2-0 start that saw them torch Ball State and beat a good Baylor team in week 1. In a year where the SEC looks wide open, the Tigers could make some noise. We currently have the Tigers in the top ten of our power ranking, but the market has not caught up. The Tigers are +2500 (10th-best odds) to win the SEC and +5000 to win the National Championship (18th-best odds) if you are interested in that kind of thing.
The Tigers have been led by an offense that is less efficient and more grinding. The Tigers rank 12th in success rate and 19th in points per opportunity, but 117th in explosiveness. Unsurprisingly, this offense is powered by the run game, where the Tigers have had a lot of volume and success. They rank 20th in Rushing Plays Rate, 25th in Rushing PPA and 21st in Rushing Success Rate. Remember when I said South Alabama can't defend the run well? I don't think it will get better.
So far, Jeremiah Cobb and Quarterback Jackson Arnold have had nearly identical rushing yardages, with Cobb at 195 and Arnold at 182. While the Tigers CAN throw the ball (9th in Passing Success Rate), they've shown that if they don't have to throw the ball, they will not. With the brunt of an SEC schedule coming up, I don't see the Tigers going deep in their offensive playbook to beat the Jags. 
South Alabama vs Auburn Pick, Betting Analysis
I will be taking advantage of Auburn rushing props when they are released, but in the meantime, I am going to take Auburn over 40.5.
The Tigers have put up 38 and 42 points in their first two games, respectively. I don't see the Jaguars stopping that train.
Give me Auburn over 40.5, and then them to have a field day on the ground every which way.
Pick: Auburn Over 40.5
