Florida vs. South Carolina Odds & Pick: Heavy Betting Action Moves Spread Towards Gamecocks (Saturday, Oct. 3)

Florida vs. South Carolina Odds

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In the second week of SEC play, South Carolina heads to Gainesville as 17-point underdogs to the Florida Gators.

The Gamecocks are looking to rebound off a close loss to Tennessee, and the Gators are feeling good after an impressive win over Ole Miss to start their season.

If you are a football player at the University of Florida named "Kyle", things are going pretty well right now. Quarterback Kyle Trask passed for 416 yards and 6 touchdowns against the Rebels. His favorite target, Kyle Pitts, finished the game with 8 catches for 170 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Florida looks like a legit playoff contender so far, but are they overvalued after last week's win?

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South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina faced a brutal schedule in 2019, and as a result, finished 4-8. Aside from its yearly SEC East matchups with Georgia and Florida, it faced Clemson, North Carolina, and Appalachian State in its out-of-conference schedule. If that wasn't hard enough, South Carolina's cross-division SEC schedule featured a home game versus Alabama and a road trip to Texas A&M.

The Gamecocks also had to maneuver through this schedule with a true freshman at quarterback after an injury to the veteran Jake Bentley in game one. The offense struggled mightily, but the defense performed well given the circumstances.

Despite facing a gauntlet of high-powered offenses, the Gamecocks still managed to finish 49th in success rate allowed (61st percentile) and 37th in limiting explosive plays (75th percentile).

South Carolina had two significant acquisitions this offseason with new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo and transfer quarterback Collin Hill. Interestingly, both came from Colorado State.

In Mike Bobo's five years with CSU, they finished in the top-20 in yards per play twice. Hill has battled injuries throughout his career, but in his three games before his season ended last year, he had an impressive 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt.

Hill seems to have developed a connection with receiver Shi Smith, who caught 10 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. South Carolina's -2 turnover differential was tough to overcome, even though they posted the same success rate as Tennessee, at 44%.

The Gamecocks got past the Tennessee 40-yard line six times and posted 4.5 points per trip inside the 40, despite a bad average starting field position of 76.2 yards from the end zone.

Although it was just one game, the South Carolina offense did show plenty of signs of improvement against a very solid Tennessee defense.

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Florida Gators

Florida came into this season with plenty of hype after an 11-2 finish in 2019. The Gators returned quarterback Kyle Trask, who was named to the preseason All-SEC first team. Florida's passing offense really excelled a season ago, ranking 10th in yards per attempt.

However, the rushing offense had a hard time finding success throughout most of the season due to an inexperienced offensive line. The Gators ranked 114th in rushing success rate, 97th in stuff rate, and 93rd in line yards.

On defense, the Gators ranked 21st in yards per play allowed and 25th in havoc in 2019. Florida did have some key departures on that side of the ball, and it really showed against Ole Miss.

Quarterback Matt Corral picked them apart with an adjusted yards per attempt of 13.2 and a completion percentage of 72%.  Florida had no answers for wide receiver Elijah Moore out of the slot, allowing him to catch 10 of 12 targets for 227 yards. Despite winning the game by 16 points, the difference in success rate was marginal. Florida posted a 53% success rate, while Ole Miss came in at 51%.

The difference in the game was Florida's ability to finish drives. Both teams had eight trips past the opponent's 40 yard line, but Florida put up 44 points on those opportunities while Ole Miss only generated 28.

Betting Analysis & Pick

As bettors, it is really easy to overreact to what we just saw in the previous game. Although Florida lit up scoreboard against Ole Miss, the points should not come as easily against a solid South Carolina defense.

Additionally, Florida's defensive performance was far too suspect for me to be excited about backing the Gators as a large favorite.

At the end of the day it all comes down to the number, and I see value on the Gamecocks here. I would play South Carolina at +17.5 or better.

Pick: South Carolina +18.5 (Play down to +17.5).

[Bet South Carolina +18.5 at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]