The Southern Jaguars take on the Alabama State Hornets in Birmingham, Alabama, on Saturday, Aug. 29. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Alabama State is favored by -19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1400. The total is set at 57.5 points.
Here’s my Southern vs Alabama State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, August 29.
Southern vs Alabama State Prediction
- Southern vs Alabama State Pick: Under 57.5
My Alabama State vs Southern best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Southern vs Alabama State Odds
| Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -113 | 57.5 -113o / -113u | +680 |
| Alabama State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -113 | 57.5 -113o / -113u | -1400 |
- Southern vs Alabama State point spread: Southern -4 (-105 ), Alabama State +4 (-115).
- Southern vs Alabama State over/under: 48.5 (-115o / -110u).
- Southern vs Alabama State moneyline: Southern +150, Alabama State -185.
Southern vs Alabama State Preview
Southern Jaguars Betting Preview: Ground and Pound
Southern had a disappointing 2025 season, resulting in the firing of Terrence Graves halfway through.
The offense struggled to get anything going behind a weak passing attack that failed to exceed 225 yards in any game. Cam’Ron McCoy departs, but Ashton Strother is back after throwing for 1,010 yards last season while completing 50.5% of his passes.
Trey Holly and Barry Remo are back at running back for the rush-heavy attack. Cam Jefferson and Malachi Jackson are the top two receivers returning, and the pair caught passes for 527 yards last season.
The Jaguars ran the ball on 59% of snaps last season and we should again see a run-heavy approach from head coach Marshall Faulk, who worked hard in the portal to beef up the offensive line.
Four starters are back from a defense that regressed last season but has been reliable over the last couple of campaigns.
A pair of transfers from New Hampshire and Liberty will look to strengthen a defensive line that gave up 4.7 yards per carry on the ground.
Markeis Batiste returns at linebacker and will be joined by Nebraska transfer Roger Gradney, as they try to re-establish the dominant presence of a once-proud room.
Four contributors in the secondary return, including Tay James, Ty Lee and Herman Brister III, and this secondary could end up being formidable with some better coaching from the new staff.
Alabama State Hornets Betting Preview: AnyBody's Game
Alabama State is equipped with the best player in the SWAC in quarterback Andrew Body. The senior threw for 1,770 yards with 20 touchdowns last season before an injury cut down his playing time after seven games.
Body is also a running threat and can make all the throws on the move while regularly avoiding turnovers. He should have an amazing season if he can avoid injury, something he's struggled with.
The running back room is going to be reliant on Jamarie Hostzclaw, along with a stable of other running backs who return with little experience.
The receiver room is also less explosive after a decent amount of production departs from last season, but Randall King and Israel Tate are players who should be able to take on more of the workload, and Alabama State will still have an explosive receiver group.
The offensive line is once again a strength as four major contributors return from last year and the Hornets will welcome in Mekhi Blue from UTRGV to bolster the starting platoon.
This unit paved the way for 213 yards per game on the ground last season while the Hornets surrendered just 10 sacks.
Seven starters are returning from an excellent defense that shut the door when needed and allowed just 21.4 points and 359 yards per game.
The defensive line wasn't overly domineering, but the Hornets do return Michael Joiner Jr., Patrick Smith Jr. and Myles Richardson, and the havoc numbers should increase once again.
The linebacker room is deep and Justin Horne and Mitchell Robinson transfer in, giving them plenty of depth.
A pair of secondary players return and transfers from Troy and Arkansas Pine-Bluff provide additional bodies.
Southern vs Alabama State Pick, Betting Analysis
Alabama State won last year’s game 30-7 with a dominating performance by the secondary. Southern threw for just 169 yards and couldn’t sustain possession enough to move into scoring position.
With a talented back-seven for the Hornets, I don't think Southern is going to be able to throw the ball very effectively here, and I would fully expect Faulk and this offense to continue to be run heavy.
On the other side, Alabama State should use its sizeable offensive line to dominate the line of scrimmage when it has the ball. I figure it doesn't want to rely on Body running frequently to avoid consistent contact.
The ground attack will be good here for the Hornets, but the deep passing attack might not quite have the timing down to connect on the deep pass plays.
I expect longer, methodical drives for the Hornets with the clock moving. I can't imagine Southern having a ton of success offensively and the Southern defense is going to be further along than its offense.
This should be a fun game, but I think we see a game that trends to a lower-scoring bout.
Pick: Under 57.5
