The FBS college football season kicks off on Saturday when the TCU Horned Frogs take on the North Carolina Tar Heels for some Week 0 action in Dublin, Ireland.
While it's not a conference matchup like last year's Aer Lingus College Football Classic, this is shaping up to be one of the most fun games on the docket this weekend.
North Carolina enters Year 2 of the Bill Belichick era after a disaster in Year 1. The Tar Heels finished 4-8 on the season, with one of those losses being a 48-14 beatdown at the hands of these Horned Frogs in Week 1.
However, this isn't the same TCU team. Gone are quarterback Josh Hoover and near 1,200-yard receiver Eric McAlister.
In comes Harvard transfer Jaden Craig under center. He has a few weapons in wide receiver Jordan Dwyer and running back Jeremy Payne, but we'll see how the former Ivy League signal-caller translates to a higher level of football.
So, who holds the advantage in this Week 0 opener? We polled 14 members of our college football staff to get their takes on the spread and over/under in TCU vs. North Carolina.
So, let's take a look at our TCU vs. North Carolina picks and college football best bets for Saturday, August 29.
TCU vs North Carolina Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: TCU -7.5
By Road to CFB
The Action Network crew largely favors the TCU Horned Frogs with the number in Ireland as they open their season against the North Carolina Tar Heels. Nearly two-thirds of the staff leans TCU -8.
North Carolina is dealing with the likely absence of defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, who's on leave for an unknown time due to reported medical issues.
Although far from extraordinary, Belichick led UNC to a 77th finish in Points Per Drive allowed a season ago, by far the more competent unit.
General manager Michael Lombardi is also on leave due to an investigation, bringing even more distraction and noise to this program.
TCU ushers in the era of Gordon Sammis, its new offensive coordinator from UConn. Outbound OC Kendal Briles underwhelmed in Fort Worth despite having a high-octane quarterback and plenty of talent.
Sammis joins the program with Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig, a good fit for Sammis’ pro-style system. Expect more tight end usage and a healthy dose of wide zone on the shoulders of rising star Jeremy Payne.
Our team expects a decisive advantage on both lines, as TCU projects to see some of the most improvement along the offensive line in the country under Sammis.
UNC also sees a much-needed boost on its offensive line with the return of starters Christo Kelly and Aidan Banfield, who both sat last year to injury.
Ultimately, it’s the underwhelming nature of Billy Edwards Jr., who was announced as the starter for Week 0. Though he sat with injury, Edwards ranks just 68th nationally in The Athletic QB tiers, among the lowest for Power Conference teams.
TCU defensive coordinator Andy Avalos excels in creating pressure up front, although that’s a department the Horned Frogs lacked last year. There’s turnover off the edges, so he'll need to manufacture those pressures.
This line climbed from TCU -7.5 at open and could breach -10 by kickoff. For that reason, our staff agrees with the line move and would back the Frogs.
TCU vs North Carolina Over/Under Pick
Over 46.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 4 Picks |
Under 46.5 | 8 Picks |
Or Staff's Pick: Under 46.5
By Joshua Nunn
The total on this game has ticked down consistently this summer, and our staff agrees with the move. About 80% of our staff members lean toward the under, and many have bet that side of the total as well.
Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, with TCU bringing Jaden Craig in from Harvard alongside new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis from UConn.
The Horned Frogs will have more balance offensively, a slower tempo and a renewed commitment to running the football.
I expect to see some 12-personnel (one running back and two tight ends) and a focus on the run game to help Craig acclimate to the speed of Power 4 football.
On the other side, UNC will go with Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr. at quarterback, but the talk on offense has surrounded offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino and his spread offense coming to Chapel Hill.
The North Carolina offensive line is rebuilding from scratch after the unit struggled with cohesiveness a season ago. I can't imagine the game plan being to line up and throw the ball 40 times against this TCU defensive front.
UNC has a pair of capable backs in Demon June and Benjamin Hall, along with LSU transfer Kaleb Jackson.
The Tar Heels had a serviceable rushing attack last season, but it wasn't explosive. In fact, they recorded only four rushing attempts that exceeded 20 yards all season. I expect a slog offensively.
For all the bad things that happened to UNC last year, it excelled in limiting explosiveness. The stop unit allowed just 10 plays that went for 30-plus yards last season and just five that went for 40-plus yards, both top-three in all of FBS.
I think both defenses are going to have the upper hand in this one.
While much of the value has evaporated with a total of 46.5, I would still lean toward the under in this matchup.
TCU vs North Carolina Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -325 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
