The TCU Horned Frogs take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown, West Virginia, on Saturday, Oct. 25. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
TCU is favored by 17 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. West Virginia, meanwhile, enters as a +17 underdog and is +525 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 points.
Here’s my TCU vs. West Virginia prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
TCU vs West Virginia Prediction, Preview
- TCU vs. West Virginia Pick: TCU 1H Team Total Over 17.5
My West Virginia vs. TCU best bet is on the Horned Frogs to clear their first-half team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
TCU vs West Virginia Odds, Betting Lines
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -700 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +525 |
- TCU vs West Virginia Spread: TCU -17, West Virginia +17
- TCU vs West Virginia Over/Under: 56 Points
- TCU vs West Virginia Moneyline: TCU -700, West Virginia +525
TCU vs West Virginia College Football Week 9 Preview
Why TCU Will Win
TCU stumbled in a familiar spot: against Kansas State in Manhattan. The Horned Frogs continued their winless drought at Kansas State on Oct. 11, one that dates back to 2017.
But TCU managed to rebound against rival Baylor with a 42-36 win that was less competitive before a lengthy weather delay shook things up.
This time, Idaho transfer wide receiver Jordan Dwyer stepped up for 111 yards and a touchdown through the air. Before then, it had been all Eric McAlister, who recorded 475 yards on just 16 catches and seven touchdowns in the previous three games.
Running back Kevorian Barnes returning to the lineup helped quite a bit, too. Barnes ran for 106 yards and two scores against Baylor (25 carries) and 81 yards against Kansas State (just 12 carries).
Few offenses in the country are as dangerous as TCU's when it's at full strength.
Quarterback Josh Hoover ties for the country lead with 21 touchdown passes. With deep threats like McAlister and Dwyer at his disposal, Hoover can open up more as a gunslinger, propelling the offense to 35-plus points four times this season (4-0 in such games).
Dig past the surface-level points per game, and you'll realize the defense is better than advertised. In its last two games, opponents scored 77 points combined, with 21 of those coming as defensive scores.
The Horned Frogs' stop unit struggles to get off the field on late downs occasionally and gives up some chunk plays through the air, but on a down-to-down basis, it's a sound defense.
While far from "great," TCU's defense is serviceable enough to win games with a high-caliber offense.
Two league losses may be enough to keep TCU out of the Big 12 Championship game this year (+3000 odds to win it after Week 8), but this is still a team with a shot at 10 wins.
Granted, the road there is tough — TCU's November opponents combine for a 24-4 record.
Why West Virginia Will Win
It's hard to win football games given West Virginia's quarterback situation. Preseason starter Nicco Marchiol was injured and took a medical redshirt with the intention to transfer after Week 3.
Backup and Texas A&M transfer Jaylen Henderson left Week 6 and missed Week 7 due to injury. Freshman Scotty Fox Jr. started the UCF game but also exited to injury (after going just 6-for-17 for 47 yards).
Now, in comes fourth-string QB Khalil Wilkins, who went 5-for-10 for 32 yards.
Star running back Jahiem White and starting receiver Jaden Bray suffered season-ending injuries at Ohio in Week 2.
WVU has been held under 17 points in four of its six FBS games so far this season. It also allowed 40-plus in three of its last four games and 38 in the fourth.
Oklahoma State dominates the bad headlines in the Big 12, but WVU realistically isn't that far behind. The Mountaineers are 129th in net points per drive (132nd in scoring!) and 130th in net available yards.
Jimmori Robinson — the former American Defensive Player of the Year at UTSA and highly-touted transfer — has been rotational and downright ineffective after winning an eligibility battle with the NCAA. Robinson has been limited to a single recorded tackle and no sacks through four games.
The overall trend of the season is looking poor, too.
WVU has gotten progressively less competitive throughout the season. It upset Pitt in the Backyard Brawl at home in a result that's looking more surprising by the week, but since then, it has been outscored, 172-61, with an average -27.8 point margin (and it only closed the BYU game in garbage time to lose by 14, not 21).
Things are bad in Morgantown.
It's clear the buy-in with the current roster isn't there. Rich Rodriguez is likely looking ahead to 2026 and another recruiting cycle to build his roster. There could be a measurable quit factor with the Mountaineers this year.
How To Make TCU vs West Virginia Picks
TCU opened as a -14.5 favorite and was bet up to -16.5 on the road here.
All indicators point to TCU winning big in this matchup, including early-market movement. On paper, TCU is the superior team by a considerable margin and should have its way with the Mountaineers in this one.
But there are two factors worth considering: (a) TCU is playing its seventh consecutive game, six of which came against Power Conference foes and five straight against Big 12 foes, and (b) TCU really struggles against West Virginia, especially in Morgantown.
WVU is 6-1 outright in its last seven against TCU, including twice as an underdog in its last three meetings (+14 in 2023, +4.5 in 2021). But those were more physical WVU teams, especially up front. The Mountaineers' physicality is what won those games.
The 2025 edition of West Virginia isn't that team.
I do worry about the toll of seven straight games, especially on the road. To hedge against the potential of the gas tank running empty in the second half before the bye, I'm looking to back TCU in the first half.
Hoover and McAlister should be able to take advantage of a subpar secondary and no pass rush early on. The Horned Frogs are aware of their struggles against the Mountaineers, especially those who were on the roster in 2023.
Outside of a poor start against Kansas State, TCU starts the game fast. Against Baylor, TCU dropped 21 points in the second quarter; at Arizona State, it jumped out to a 17-0 lead early.
This is a good opportunity to back the Horned Frogs early on against a team that's near rock bottom.
Pick: TCU 1H Team Total Over 17.5
How To Watch TCU vs West Virginia
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN+
TCU vs West Virginia Betting Trends
