Tennessee vs. Missouri Sharp Betting Pick: How Pros Are Moving the Over/Under
Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jeremy Pruitt
- A bit of sharp action had been hitting tonight's Tennessee vs. Missouri matchup (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network) throughout the week.
- On Saturday morning, another wave of smart money hit the total, causing oddsmakers to adjust their number.
While much of the SEC takes on FCS opponents in Week 13, Tennessee and Missouri won’t be so lucky tonight.
The two 5-5 teams will meet in Columbia where the Tigers are listed as 3.5-point home favorites. But while the spread may be the more attractive bet to most bettors (73% are taking the points with the Vols), it’s the over/under drawing heavy action from sharps — including some earlier today.
Both Mizzou and Tennessee have been profitable for under bettors over the course of the season, with the former being especially lucrative. Of Missouri’s 10 games, only two have gone over the closing total. Tennessee has hit the over four times.
Perhaps for that reason, most bettors are comfortable taking the under in this matchup. Sixty-five percent, to be exact, have bet it on a number that opened at 45.5.
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The total is now up to 47, however, thanks to professional action on the over.
The 35% of over bettors have generated 55% of actual money landing on the total. While that creates a tiny liability for sportsbooks, it more importantly reveals how bigger bettors –the ones more likely to be sharps — are seeing this total.
Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of professional action causing line moves, have revealed four such cases on this over throughout the week. The most recent came in the form of a steam move shortly after 11 a.m. ET this morning at 46, showing that sharps were still finding value even after almost a full week of market adjustments.
As a result, oddsmakers continued the line movement, and have now settled the number at 47.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 45.5 to 47) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]