The No. 20 Texas Longhorns (6-2, 3-1 SEC) host the No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1, 3-1 SEC) in a top-20 SEC showdown on Saturday, Nov. 1, at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas enters this game with its College Football Playoff hopes hanging by a thread. If the Longhorns happened to escape the Commodores, they'd still have two down 2 top-5 teams in Georgia and Texas A&M to finagle their way into the 12-team field.
Vanderbilt, meanwhile, has a bit more room for error. The Commodores come into this game with a 7-1 record and play only 1 ranked team — No. 14 Tennessee — in their final 3 games.
So, who holds the advantage in this one? Let's take a look at our Texas vs. Vanderbilt picks and college football predictions for this marquee matchup on Saturday, Nov. 1.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
Oh, how the narratives surrounding this game have changed since the preseason.
Instead of Texas asserting itself as the dominant team, Vanderbilt comes into this SEC showdown as the top-10 squad capable of hanging with almost any team in the nation.
Instead of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning pacing the Heisman Trophy odds board, it's been Commodores signal-caller Diego Pavia racing his way up the board.
Instead of Texas being a lock for the College Football Playoff, it's Vandy that finds itself with a much more comfortable path.
The Commodores have shown that last year was no fluke, and they're only building on it. The expectation isn't simply a winning record anymore — it's the CFP.
However, they still have a tough task ahead of them when they travel to Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday. The Longhorns may have gotten off to a relatively slow start compared to expectations, but they enter this game as 3-point favorites.
This is a massive game from a College Football Playoff perspective. So, who owns the edge?
We polled eight members of our college football crew to get their takes on the spread and over/under for this top-20 SEC showdown. Let's dive in.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Vanderbilt +3
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is split almost right down the middle on this game, with a slight lean given to the Commodores.
We're looking at what could be Vanderbilt’s toughest test yet, lining up against a Texas defense that grades out first or second in the SEC in many defensive metrics, including tackling, run defense and overall defensive rankings.
The one weakness of this Longhorns defense has been allowing early-down success. Vandy is comfortable running plays on first and second down designed to gain four yards at a time to set itself up for third-and-short situations.
The Commodores have been excellent on third down this season (53%), and I think they can keep possession of the football and score enough to keep the pressure on the Horns.
Texas has struggled more than most this year in protecting the quarterback. The offensive line has given up 18 sacks and 53 tackles for loss this year for an offense that ranks just 118th nationally in offensive explosiveness and 120th in EPA Per Play.
Defensively, Vanderbilt has stepped up and ranks 13th nationally in Havoc and 34th in explosiveness allowed, two areas the Longhorn offense struggles with.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning is questionable to play in this one, but the offense hasn't taken off with or without him this season.
When diving into the Longhorns' game last week, they were down three scores in the second half and drawing dead. A forced turnover by their defense and a special teams touchdown jump-started the comeback, but what would this narrative be had that not taken place?
Vanderbilt is a legitimate top-10 team and should be power-rated accordingly.
Late steam in the market this week has moved this line all the way up to Vanderbilt +3, and in a lower-scoring game that the Commodores have shown a high comfort level in playing in, that's the side I would want to be on here.
Over/Under Pick
Over 46.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 1 Picks |
Under 46.5 | 2 Pick |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 46.5
I'm going to go against my counterparts here and take the under in this SEC matchup.
Both of these defenses are borderline elite, with Texas ranking fifth in PFF defensive grade and Vanderbilt ranking 28th.
However, even more importantly than their overall defensive grades, both of these stop units excel at causing disruption. Vanderbilt ranks 13th in Havoc, and Texas ranks 20th.
Unfortunately for both these teams, the offensive lines are questionable at best. Texas comes in at 77th in PFF Pass Block Grade, while Vanderbilt ranks 118th.
Expect sacks and turnovers to disrupt these teams, especially Texas. The Longhorns rank just 111th in Standard Down Rate. Look for them to be forced to throw the ball often, a situation they've struggled in, ranking just 114th in Passing Success Rate.
While the Diego Pavia-led Vanderbilt offense is more efficient, the Commodores play extremely slowly, ranking just 133rd in seconds per play.
Expect a lot of Texas struggling to string a drive together, while Vanderbilt has long, time-consuming drives to the red zone.
The most interesting matchup of the day should actually be Vanderbilt’s red-zone offense (second in Points Per Opportunity) vs. Texas’ red-zone defense (25th in Points Per Opportunity allowed).
If the Horns can hold the 'Dores to some field goals, I'd expect this under to cash easily.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
- Texas vs. Vanderbilt Spread: Texas -3, Vanderbilt +3
- Texas vs. Vanderbilt Total: 46.5
- Texas vs. Vanderbilt Moneyline: Texas ML -155, Vanderbilt ML +130
