Texas Tech at Iowa State Betting Odds & Pick: Expect Scoring From the Red Raiders in Ames (Saturday, Oct. 10)
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: KeSean Carter (82).
- Texas Tech heads to Iowa State as sizeable underdogs in this key Big 12 showdown.
- Both teams can light up the scoreboard, but Texas Tech specifically should have no problem finding the end zone.
- Darin Gardner previews the game and explains why he's eyeing a team total in this matchup.
Texas Tech at Iowa State Odds
|Texas Tech Odds||+14 [BET NOW]|
|Iowa State Odds||-14 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+390/-530 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||62.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET|
Iowa State welcomes Texas Tech to Ames on Saturday after a 37-30 victory over the reigning Big 12 champion Oklahoma. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, are coming off a 31-21 loss to Kansas State and are waiting to learn the status of starting quarterback Alan Bowman, who left last week’s game due to injury.
Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells offered some optimism earlier this week, indicating that Bowman’s injury is not long term, but there’s still no clear decision on whether he’ll play against the Cyclones. If he can’t go, Bowman will be replaced by Henry Colombi, who transferred to Texas Tech after backing up Jordan Love at Utah State for the past two seasons.
With Bowman’s status up in the air, the line has held steady at 12.5 all week with an over/under of 64.5 points. Will Bowman’s status influence the betting market, or will the line remain where it is? Regardless, there’s betting value on this matchup, so let’s identify where it’s at.
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Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders sit at 1-2 on the season after losing to Texas and Kansas State.
The defense has struggled this season, highlighted best by a dismal performance in which it allowed 63 points to the Longhorns. The Red Raiders rank 57th out of 74 defenses in success rate allowed, 37th in explosiveness allowed and 37th in yards per attempt allowed.
However, the Texas Tech offense has performed well despite playing most of the Kansas State game without its starting quarterback. The unit ranks eighth in success rate, with the Red Raiders relying heavily on the passing game and moving at a fast pace with a third-best rank in pass rate and 17th-best rank in plays per game.
Texas Tech also has the best starting field position in the nation thus far, despite its defensive struggles.
Although Texas Tech lost Bowman, the drop-off from him to Colombi was not terribly significant.
For one, Colombi showed much better mobility than Bowman, which could be an added wrinkle to the offense if the starter cannot go. Colombi threw 42 passes against Kansas State, completing 30 of them for a 71.4% completion percentage and 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt. Bowman has put up an adjusted yards per attempt of 6.6, but his came against easier opponents in Houston Baptist and Texas.
Overall, if Colombi ends up starting on Saturday, I do not project the drop-off to be nearly as much as it would be at most schools.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones are coming off a deserved win against the Sooners.
Although Iowa State and Oklahoma posted the same success rate (46%), the Cyclones were able finish drives and generate explosive plays more efficiently than the Sooners. Iowa State had 5.0 points per opportunity past the opposing 40-yard line in six trips, with the Sooners averaging only 3.75 points on eight trips. The Cyclones also had a +1.4 yards per play advantage despite the equal success rate.
Iowa State has had a weird season to say the least. After losing to Louisiana-Lafayette in Week 1, the Cyclones rebounded to a 2-1 record after beating TCU and Oklahoma.
Their advanced stats, however, are not very favorable.
The Cyclones rank 28th out of 74 teams in success rate and 34th in passing success rate. They also play at a slow pace and don’t throw the ball at a high rate, ranking 71st in plays per game and 40th in pass rate. The defense has also been unimpressive, ranking 40th in success rate, 56th in explosiveness and 57th in yards per pass attempt.
Although Iowa State has started out with 2-0 in Big 12 play, it could be a regression candidate moving forward.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
I’m interested to see what happens to this line after the Bowman injury news is announced. Personally, I’m not making a big adjustment no matter if he plays or sits.
Colombi’s play last week was comparable to Bowman’s showing, and Colombi should be more comfortable (if he does start) after getting game reps and having the opportunity to practice with the first team.
I actually project this game in the 70s, but I see more value on the Texas Tech team total rather than the game total.
I’ve seen the Red Raiders’ team total floating between 24.5 and 25.5. You’ll obviously want to find the best line you can, but this is somewhat of a “dead zone” when it comes to key numbers, so I like the over at either line.
Pick: Texas Tech team total over 24.5 (-110)
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