The Troy Trojans take on the James Madison Dukes in Harrisonburg, Virginia, in the Sun Belt Championship on Friday, Dec. 5. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
JMU is favored by 23 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2400. Troy, meanwhile, enters as a +23 underdog and is +1200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47 total points.
Here’s my Troy vs. JMU predictions and college football picks for Friday, December 5.
Troy vs JMU Prediction
- Troy vs. JMU Pick: Troy +23.5
My JMU vs. Troy best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs JMU Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
| JMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -2400 |
- Troy vs JMU Spread: JMU -23, Troy +23
- Troy vs JMU Over/Under: 47 Points
- Troy vs JMU Moneyline: Troy +1200, JMU -2400
Troy vs JMU College Football Betting Preview
Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Can Trojans Keep Up?
Troy has really rallied the troops the last couple of weeks since seeing quarterback Goose Crowder return from an injury that kept him out most of the way for a second consecutive season.
The Trojans defeated Georgia State a couple of weeks back and then went on the road as touchdown underdogs and defeated Southern Miss to gain entry into the conference title game by winning the Sun Belt West.
This is a spot the Trojans are used to being in. Troy won the Sun Belt back-to-back in 2022 and 2023, but this will be head coach Gerad Parker’s first title game in his second year as head coach.
The offense has played well the last two weeks, as Troy surpassed 400 yards in back-to-back games for the first time this season.
Crowder has looked much more comfortable, throwing for 641 yards with seven passing touchdowns while completing 65% of his passes during that stretch.
However, the ground attack will be up against it this week when it comes to taking the pressure off Crowder and the passing game. Troy hasn't run the ball effectively often this season, and it won't be easy against a stout JMU front.
The Trojans defense hasn't played all that badly this season. In fact, this unit ranks in the top half of the Sun Belt in most statistical metrics.
Troy's defense has shown flashes of brilliance in performances against Clemson earlier in the season and Southern Miss last week, while peppering in some solid performances in between.
The Trojans have played well against the run in many games this season, but they were exposed badly against Old Dominion and Texas State earlier this year.
Stopping the run at the point of attack and creating negative plays behind the line of scrimmage will be critical in slowing down this JMU attack.
James Madison Dukes Betting Preview: Clubhouse Leader
James Madison has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the Sun Belt this season and finds itself on the cusp of its first conference title in just its fourth season of FBS football.
The ground attack has paced the offense, led by Wayne Knight, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards with eight rushing scores.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III has contributed both through the air and on the ground with 33 total touchdowns.
This offense is potent enough to put up 50 on anyone it plays — something it has done four times in the second half of the season.
We've also seen some long stretches where JMU is unproductive, as the Dukes have played with their food against lesser competition at times.
On the other side, the JMU defense has a strong case to be made when it comes to being labeled as the top G5 defense in America.
The Dukes have allowed just 16 points per game this season and are excellent against the run and at preventing explosive plays.
JMU ranks first nationally in Success Rate allowed and eighth in preventing explosive plays.
The Dukes are allowing just 2.7 yards per carry on the ground and have been excellent both on third down and in the red zone. I expect this defense to show up ready to go in the conference championship game.
Troy vs JMU Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened at JMU -21.5 and has been bet up slightly throughout the week. The Dukes are now 23.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 47.5.
My personal power ratings can't get anywhere close to this number, as I make this game JMU -19.3.
To back the Dukes, you have to pay a significant tax, especially for a team that has played with its food a bit on numerous occasions this season.
I'm waiting on this one a bit longer, though. I don't see the line going down, but I really want to get +24 or +24.5 on Troy. This should steam up on game day, but if not, I'll log a play on Troy +23.5.
James Madison has played down to lesser competition time and again this season. The Dukes played a 14-7 game with Georgia State, defeated Louisiana, 24-14, and played closer games with Marshall and Washington State down the stretch.
The Wazzu result was the most puzzling, as JMU needed a fourth-quarter comeback to win the game outright while still playing to impress the College Football Playoff committee.
Troy's defense is no slouch, and those guys have put up some very good performances this season. The Trojans' stop unit ranks 56th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 57th in preventing explosive runs.
Containing the JMU rushing attack will be critical, but this front seven has shown that it can stop proficient rushing attacks. The Trojans also rank 48th in creating Havoc and have registered 78 tackles for loss this season.
If they can play on the other side of the line of scrimmage, James Madison's path to scoring becomes significantly harder.
JMU hasn't played teams with exceptional passing attacks in recent weeks, and I can see Troy having some success through the air in the first half.
Crowder has settled in since coming back from injury, and receivers RaRa Thomas and Tray Taylor are capable of stretching the field and making tough, contested catches to extend drives.
I'm not trying to make a case for Troy to win this game, but I think the Trojans can do enough defensively to provide some resistance to the JMU run game and force it into uncomfortable distances on third downs.
The offense will really be up against it here, but I think if Troy can cover this ultra-inflated number if it scores 14.
Pick: Troy +23.5
Troy vs JMU Betting Trends
