The Troy Trojans take on the Old Dominion Monarchs in Norfolk, Virginia. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Old Dominion is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my Troy vs. Old Dominion prediction and college football picks for Thursday, November 13.
Troy vs Old Dominion Prediction
- Troy vs. Old Dominion Pick: Old Dominion 1H -6.5 (-115, bet365)
My Old Dominion vs. Troy best bet is on the Monarchs to cover the first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs Old Dominion Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Troy vs Old Dominion point spread: Old Dominion -11 (-110), Troy +11 (-110)
- Troy vs Old Dominion over/under: 52.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Troy vs Old Dominion moneyline: Troy +325, Old Dominion -425
Troy vs Old Dominion Preview
Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Running Out of Luck
Frankly, Troy is fortunate to be 6-3 at this point in the season.
It sits 3-0 in one-score games, including 2-0 in overtime, despite being outgained by 57.2 yards per game.
It beat a string of bad teams — Louisiana, ULM, Texas State, South Alabama, and Buffalo are currently a combined 17-29 (.370) — and then the wheels fell off in a 23-10 loss at Arkansas State.
But gauging this team fully is tough, since the other two losses came to Clemson and Memphis.
Without an elite back like Damien Taylor or Kimani Vidal, Troy’s offense has struggled. It’s a run-first approach from a program that doesn’t recruit top quarterback talent.
Remove an outlier Texas State game where Tucker Kilcrease threw for over 400 yards and five touchdowns, and you have a quarterback who hasn’t breached 250 yards and has as many interceptions thrown as touchdown passes (four).
Not ideal.
The offensive line isn’t very good, frequently losing the battle at the line of scrimmage even against average defensive fronts. It’s a thin group with a couple of injury concerns — notably guard Elijah Prather and those who sit behind him.
Defensively, Troy’s metrics are a bit inflated. Its last six games came against four offenses ranked in the bottom 30 nationally (points per drive), one ranked 63rd, and one ranked 27th. The last one, Texas State, scored 41 points in an overtime win for the Trojans.
It’s a subpar tackling unit with an undersized front. The second level is a liability, highlighted by safety David Daniel-Sisavanh’s near-40% whiff rate on tackles. In short, it’s just not a very good unit top to bottom.
Troy already secured its spot in a bowl game, but a place in the Sun Belt Championship Game is still up for grabs — it may come down to Week 14 in a game at Southern Miss. The Trojans sit a half-game over Arkansas State, which now owns the tiebreaker.
The current record is a good story for a team that finished 4-8 but won three of its last four games last year. But this is a team we should fade in the right situation — and I might fade in a bowl game.
Old Dominion Monarchs Betting Preview: Monarchs Mean Business
The steam on Old Dominion has cooled a bit since the Monarchs began 4-1, with a slight loss at Indiana as the measurable body of work.
Old Dominion dropped consecutive games at Marshall and at James Madison, allowing 111 points in the process, but the winning ways returned with two more heading into the bye.
Building the whole plane out of Colton Joseph has been an effective strategy.
The sophomore quarterback is the team’s leading rusher with nearly 700 yards and nine touchdowns; nearly 60% of those came on breakaway runs of 15-plus yards, highlighting his explosiveness. That’s not to discount a good year through the air, as Joseph has 19 touchdown passes against nine interceptions and over 2,200 yards.
The ever-present threat of Joseph ripping off a long run frees up back Trequan Jones, who averages nearly eight yards on 66 carries so far. It’s a dynamic rushing attack pieced together by Kevin Decker (previously of Fordham).
But where the Monarchs really shine is on defense.
The Monarchs field a top-30 defense nationally in points per drive allowed, and that includes the abysmal back-to-back stretch where Marshall hung 63 on this unit. It also includes the sudden retirement of one of the FBS’s all-time tacklers, Jason Henderson.
Anchoring the unit is a young but very talented and quite deep secondary. The number of interceptions logged by just corners and safeties (six) nearly matches the number of touchdowns allowed in coverage (seven).
Corner Brandon Crutchfield is putting together an All-Sun Belt season with a 21% forced incompletion rate — seventh-best among Sun Belt corners (minimum 80 snaps). It’s a physical group, but you’ll take the bad (penalties) with the good (a top-25 turnover defense).
Upending James Madison in the Sun Belt East is incredibly unlikely, especially with the Dukes’ tiebreaker over the Monarchs. But ODU projects to be favored in each of its last three games and finish 9-3, its best mark since 2016.
Troy vs Old Dominion Pick, Betting Analysis
Two 6-3 teams from the Sun Belt face off, but the initial line of Old Dominion -9.5 wasn’t enough.
The market bet the Monarchs up to as high as -11.5 early in the week.
Compare the routes to 6-3, and it’s easy to see why the market leaned toward Old Dominion.
The Trojans won five of their last six outings, none of which came against a top-90 opponent, and five of those six rank outside the top 100. Only one of those victories came against a team currently with a winning record (Buffalo, 103rd in aggregate power ratings).
Old Dominion’s losses came to Indiana (second), James Madison (44th), and Marshall (96th) — the latter two in games where the defense failed. The Monarchs' strength of record, per ESPN’s FPI, is 55th, while Troy’s is 72nd.
ODU’s gotten off to some good starts this year, while Troy has been slow out of the gate — either offensively, defensively, or both.
These two teams have never met before, so both coaching staffs are in for a fresh prep. Fortunately, each had the bye week to construct their approach.
When it comes to equal prep, I look for the more experienced coaching staff and the more dynamic scheme. Both of those checks go to Old Dominion. Ricky Rahne has proven to be more trustworthy than Gerad Parker — the former having coached in more one-score games than almost anyone in the FBS.
Troy is still a bit fraudulent, especially when you compare season-long yardage metrics and the margin between 6-3 and 4-5. There’s nothing elite for this team to lean on in a crunch.
Thursday night, I expect a quick start for Old Dominion. Rather than chase the already-steamed full-game spread, I’m looking to the first half to back the Monarchs.
Pick: Old Dominion 1H -6.5 (-115, bet365)
Troy vs Old Dominion Betting Trends
