The Troy Trojans take on the Texas State Bobcats in San Marcos, Texas. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Texas State is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Troy vs. Texas State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Troy vs Texas State Prediction
- Troy vs. Texas State Pick: Troy +9 (-110, bet365)
My Texas State vs. Troy best bet is on the Trojans to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs Texas State Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
- Troy vs Texas State point spread: Texas State -9 (-110), Troy +9 (-110)
- Troy vs Texas State over/under: 54.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Troy vs Texas State moneyline: Troy +265, Texas State -330
Troy vs Texas State Pick
This game activated one of our PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Small Dog in Small Game is a college football system built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season, within the first nine contests, when teams are still developing identities.
The underdog in this range is typically small to moderate, with spreads between two and 11.5 points, and often enters the game with little momentum, having won or lost only one or two games in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities where perception has more influence than true performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
For what it's worth, this system is 10-7 this season (59% win, 13% ROI). Four of the past five teams that have fit this system have covered, which includes three outright upsets (Akron over Central Michigan as a seven-point dog, Florida Atlantic over Rice as a 4.5-point dog, Western Kentucky over Delaware as a 2.5-point dog).
I’m terrified of backing the Trojans without starting quarterback Goose Crowder, as the passing attack is one of the nation’s worst.
However, they can still run the ball with Tae Meadows (337 rush yards at 5.8 YPC) behind a decent offensive line (51st nationally in Line Yards). Altogether, the Trojans rank 50th nationally in EPA per Rush and 53rd in Rush Success Rate.
That could be the difference in this game, given that Texas State’s front seven is a mess. The Bobcats rank 134th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed and 127th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Trojans are always tough on defense. So, if they can run the ball and play defense — specifically by stopping explosives, where they rank 42nd nationally in Explosiveness allowed — that’s a good formula to cover as a near-double-digit ‘dog.
Pick: Troy +9 (-110, bet365)
