NCAAF Odds & Pick for Tulane vs FAU (November 18)

In Week 12, we are welcomed to beautiful Boca Raton, Florida where the Florida Atlantic Owls welcome in the Tulane Green Wave for a late-season American Athletic Conference bout.

The Owls have now lost two straight, and three of their last five, after jumping out to a somewhat competitive and promising start to the season.

The Tulane Green Wave have lived up to expectations and have won eight straight, sitting at 9-1 on the year with their only loss being to one of the best teams in the SEC in Ole Miss.

The Green Wave are in prime position to make a push in the AAC and will need to pick up a win on the road this weekend. Does this matchup favor them to win big?

Let's dive into our college football pick and prediction for Tulane vs FAU on Saturday, November 18.

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Willie Fritz has his squad rolling again following an AAC championship a year ago. Tulane is in a prime spot to take care of business in the conference again by continuing their winning streak in Boca Raton this weekend.

Tulane has a tough test next week against the Roadrunners of UTSA, who are also undefeated in conference play, so they could be in a look-ahead spot here on the road.

Michael Pratt has returned from last season after building some serious NFL stock, and while he has not been quite as impressive this season as he battles injuries, he has been pretty darn good. Pratt has 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions on the year and is leading his team to 28.2 points per game at a 47th overall success rate.

The success rate favors this air attack as Tulane is 12th through the air at an explosiveness of 53rd in the country. The run game has struggled at 99th in success rate. This has plagued Tulane’s ability to run away with games as they have only won each of their last four games by one score. They will need to find some more success on the ground this week to help build some confidence going into next week.

The Green Wave defense has bailed this team out down the stretch of games all season. They allow 19.6 points per game at a success rate of 79th. The defensive success rate is skewed by the strength of this Tulane run defense that ranks 36th. The pass defense has struggled at 120th against the pass.

The game plan to defeat Tulane is to keep the ball away from Pratt, and teams are trying to do that on the ground as Tulane ranks 2nd in rush play attempts. Fortunately, their run defense has been prepared for the test, but they will need to slow the FAU pass game in order to finally win by double digits and not let the Owls hang around in this one.

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Tom Herman started off strong this season and kept games competitive, but they have struggled the last two weeks against East Carolina and at UAB. He will have his team looking to play spoiler at home against a tough Tulane team.

FAU is not out of bowl contention, but they will need big wins this week and next week at Rice. I expect Herman ready to have his team prepared to fight in their home finale.

Daniel Richardson will look to try and control the ball a bit better than he has this season to date as he currently has nine interceptions on the season. His 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions is not good, and against a solid Tulane defense, he will need to be better if they want to hang around.

The Owls’ offense ranks 89th in success rate with pretty even splits through the air and on the ground. The key thing that has helped this offense put up 25.6 points per game is the average starting field position at 10th in the country.

Tom Herman has been excellent at playing field position, and that will be a key factor in giving themselves good opportunities against one of the AAC’s best.

Larry McCammon will look to keep things going on the ground at 4.7 yards per carry for the Owls, but it may be tough against a stout Tulane run defense. If he can get going, it will have a big impact on how this one plays out.

The Owl defense has been on par with how their offense has performed. The defense allows a similar points per game total at 25.8 points per game and ranks 97th defensively. The concern for me about their defense is that their pass defense only ranks 109th and ranks 72nd in explosiveness, which could spell trouble against Pratt and the Green Wave. They will need some key stops against this potent pass attack, or they could fall down big early.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Florida Atlantic match up statistically:

Tulane Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	95	49
Line Yards	56	103
Pass Success	11	95
Havoc	67	118
Finishing Drives	77	52
Quality Drives	24	54

Florida Atlantic Offense vs. Tulane Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	89	32
Line Yards	41	37
Pass Success	92	89
Havoc	110	12
Finishing Drives	75	70
Quality Drives	112	41

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	110	33
PFF Coverage	85	47
Special Teams SP+	40	92
Middle 8	32	114
Seconds per Play	29.8 (118)	24.5 (22)
Rush Rate	60.3% (18)	46.5% (113)

Ultimately, this game will come down to Tulane’s ability to close this one out. They are the better team in this one with the better quarterback. They have struggled to close out games this season, but this is the week they need to get in and out quickly to prepare for a tough home game against UTSA next week.

I expect Willie Fritz to attack FAU early through the air and jump out to an early lead and put this one away early to keep his guys fresh for next week.

Pick: Tulane -9.5

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