The UCF Knights take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Baylor is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 60.5 points.
Here’s my UCF vs. Baylor prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
UCF vs Baylor Prediction
- UCF vs. Baylor Pick: UCF +3.5 (-110, bet365)
My Baylor vs. UCF best bet is on the Knights to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCF vs Baylor Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- UCF vs Baylor point spread: Baylor -3.5 (-110), UCF +3.5 (-110)
- UCF vs Baylor over/under: 60.5 (-110o / -110u).
- UCF vs Baylor moneyline: UCF +140, Baylor -170
UCF vs Baylor Preview
UCF Knights Betting Preview: Heavy on the Run
Before the bye week, UCF got out of the Big 12 schneid with a 45-13 win over West Virginia.
But it only gets tougher against Baylor.
You may not think so, but the Knights have the most explosive offense in college football. Led by running backs Jaden Nixon and Myles Montgomery, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more dynamic duo in a backfield.
Nixon has received significantly fewer carries than Montgomery, but he’s posted multiple 100-yard games on just 32 carries, or 4.5 carries per game. Montgomery, on the other hand, has averaged 14 carries per game, with a total of 522 rushing yards.
UCF’s offensive coordinator Steve Cooper has the Knights running a unique offense. They throw the ball at a top-25 rate, and do it rather efficiently with a nice 4% spike in passing completion percentage from last season.
The difference is that they don’t really throw for distance.
Duane Thomas Jr. leads in receiving yards, yet he averages only 45 yards per game.
Tayven Jackson may have finally found himself a spot where he can fully trust himself. After failed stints in Tennessee and Indiana, he has been rather effective in his first season in Central Florida.
Defensively, it seems like this team needed to ease into Big 12 play, because ever since the Kansas State game, the Knights’ allowed points have literally dropped in intervals of seven — 34 against K-State, 27 against Kansas, 20 against Cincinnati, 13 against West Virginia.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: A Mean, Mean Stride
This week’s matchup will be a major test for Baylor.
For a team that likes to run the ball as much as UCF, the Bears are one of the worst run defense teams in the nation. They rank 134th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 114th in PPA allowed.
The defense is nothing to write home about as a unit, allowing 36.3 points per game, but there are some real dogs on it.
Linebacker Keaton Thomas is a monster with a Big 12-leading 40 solo tackles, but the stars on defense are mainly in the secondary.
LeVar Thornton Jr., followed by Caldra Williford, Caden Jenkins, DJ Coleman, and Jacob Redding, are defensive backs to look out for.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson is leading all Big 12 quarterbacks in nearly every category, including yards per game and touchdowns thrown. Not only that, he leads all of college football with 2,513 passing yards.
There’s a multi-headed monster in the wide receiver room led by Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins, but tight end Michael Trigg has been a huge target for Robertson down the stretch.
The run game has done reasonably well, with Bryson Washington getting the bulk of the carries, but I would expect the offense to be centered on the passing game.
UCF vs Baylor Pick, Betting Analysis
Both of these programs do one thing well, and they do it at a high level.
But the difference between them is that UCF can run the ball effectively and stifle the pass.
Baylor, on the other hand, is dreadful against the run.
The Bears rank 124th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, allowing the second-most first downs per game to running backs.
Robertson will look to get his. He has an abundance of targets who are ready, but we’ve seen a big progression from the Knights on defense.
Baylor is a highly explosive, highly volatile offense, and even though it’s going to be at home, I can’t seem to get behind the Bears in this duel.
Sure, UCF hasn’t won a game on the road yet, but something about this matchup intrigues me.
Let’s have some fun with this one and pick the Knights to cover.
Pick: UCF +3.5 (-110, bet365)
