The UNC Tar Heels take on the Cal Golden Bears in Berkeley, CA. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Cal is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Cal prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 17, 2025.
UNC vs Cal Prediction
- UNC vs. Cal Pick: Under 47.5
My Cal vs. UNC best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UNC vs Cal Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
- UNC vs Cal point spread: Cal -10
- UNC vs Cal over/under: 47.5 points
- UNC vs Cal moneyline: UNC +300, Cal -380
UNC vs Cal Preview
UNC Tar Heels Betting Preview: Belichick Experiment Failing
Despite playing just one game since September, Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels have been well-represented in the news carousel.
Following an ugly 2-3 start, with wins over Charlotte and FCS Richmond, Hulu reportedly scratched its documentary about the program, and Belichick refuted the claim.
Since the first day, the Belichick-UNC experiment has resulted in noise, something college athletes don't handle as well as the pros.
Transfer quarterback Gio Lopez has been ineffective this season and, following a Week 4 injury, Belichick took the opportunity to bench him in favor of veteran Max Johnson.
Since we've only seen UNC once since then (a 38-10 loss against Clemson), how the offense functions under Johnson isn't well known. The Freddie Kitchens scheme hasn't proven to be anything exciting, and it simply lacks weapons.
The offensive line is one of the worst in the ACC and is missing center Christo Kelly, who hasn't played since Week 1.
Against power-conference opponents, North Carolina's defense looks like Swiss cheese. The season-long numbers are helped along by playing Charlotte (131st in the FBS in points per drive) and a Division I-AA opponent.
Against TCU, UCF and Clemson, the Tar Heels average 40 points allowed per game (some of which came by defensive scores).
Quarterbacks move the ball with ease on the Tar Heels' thin secondary, and the defense, as a whole, struggles to get off the field on late downs.
Two of the three corners with 100+ snaps grade below replacement level, while the third, Thaddeus Dixon, ranks 15th among PFF's ACC cornerbacks (min. 100 snaps).
Even removing the potential quit factor with this roster, this is a bad football team with few wins left on its schedule. Both bye weeks were burned in the last three weeks, setting up a seven-game ACC stretch with four road games to close the season.
Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview: Offense Holding Team Back
It turns out quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele may have been a flash-in-the-pan story early in the college football season.
Though clearly talented, Cal dropped two of its last three games, and the offense looked pedestrian in all three; the Golden Bears were blanked by what should have been an inferior San Diego State team.
Inopportune penalties and three-and-outs plague this Cal offense. In the losses to San Diego State (34-0) and Duke (45-21), Cal put together drives of three or fewer plays a ridiculous 13 times (five of which ended in negative yards).
The offensive line has 18 penalties through six played games, many of which were drive-killers.
So, clean things up and this Cal offense should get going, right?
Not quite. Cal also turned the ball over seven times in the two losses. It has a myriad of problems, most of which take time or personnel replacement to fix. That's to say, maybe the penalties trend down after the bye week, but there's foundational issues to this offense.
Fortunately, the Cal defense, now co-directed by Terrence Brown, has kept the Golden Bears afloat. It surrendered more than three touchdowns once this year, in the loss to Duke (SDSU scored twice on defense in that rout).
But the tough schedule stretch continues. From Weeks 4-9, four Cal opponents come off a bye week, three of those have the rest advantage and additionally, three opponents come off the bye at home.
UNC vs Cal Pick, Betting Analysis
At one point, this spread favored Cal by nearly two touchdowns, but that's come down close to the opening mark of -10.5.
North Carolina plays this game at 10:30 p.m. internal (ET), which is a tough ask for teams to play outside of traditional playing hours.
This is the first trip out West for UNC since the 2022 Holiday Bowl and the first cross-country ACC game for the Tar Heels since last year's realignment. Belichick brings plenty of pro travel logistics to the table, but this is a new experience for the players themselves.
Justin Wilcox has been terrible in two situations, both of which apply to this game: (a) as a home favorite (10-17-1 against the spread) and, (b) off a bye week (3-10 straight up at Cal).
Cal is both the home favorite and coming off a bye.
We're also looking at the possibility of rain in Berkeley in the second half, though forecasts remain fluid throughout the week.
Both Cal and North Carolina struggle to generate long plays and consistent drives. For the Golden Bears, it's long sustained drives, or it's a three-and-out.
For UNC, there's a lot of questions with the offensive personnel, especially around Johnson.
Neither scheme or cast of weapons gives many reasons for optimism in the scoring units here. In a weird matchup late on Friday night, I expect this game to be low-scoring and inefficient.
Wilcox stinks in this situation, and it's a nightmare for Belichick and North Carolina, too. It's gross all the way around and with the potential for weather, I'm betting under the posted total.
Pick: Under 47.5
