UNLV vs UTEP Prediction & Pick: Wrong Team Favored in El Paso

UNLV vs UTEP Odds

The Barry Odom era in Las Vegas is officially off and running, as the Rebels cashed their first big upset under the first-year head coach last week in a 40-37 victory over Vanderbilt.

The Rebels face a different test this week, traveling to the West Texas town of El Paso for a nonconference matchup with the UTEP Miners.

UTEP’s catching almost a field goal at home, with the total hanging around 50.

I think the market is way off in this game. But where is the betting value? Let's dive into the odds and make a UNLV vs. UTEP prediction & pick.

We need to throw out the record books with UNLV. Its season-long stats are wonky thanks to a blowout win over Bryant and a blowout loss to Michigan.

So, how’d it do against Vandy?

The defense was stifling, holding the Commodores to -0.28 EPA per Play (ninth percentile) and a 33% Success Rate (16th percentile). That’s excellent news, given Odom was hired to patch up this defense.

So, how’d Vandy score 37 points?

In short, explosive plays. The Rebels allowed five explosive passing plays, including a 56-yarder to London Humphreys, a 39-yarder to Jayden McGowan, a 34-yarder to Quincy Skinner Jr. and a 33-yarder to Will Sheppard.

UNLV finished 92nd in FBS last season in 30-yard plays allowed, so its performance last week is concerning. The secondary is more experienced, so where’s the improvement?

Meanwhile, Brennan Marion’s famous “Go-Go” offense wasn’t very “Go-Go.” It’s a rush-heavy scheme with deep, vertical passing shots in between, but the Runnin’ Rebels amassed 175 rushing yards on 40 carries, good for a mediocre 4.6 yards per carry and -0.03 EPA per Rush.

Ricky White is a legit deep threat who cashed in a 48-yard reception. Jacob De Jesus had a 48-yarder, too.

But what’s the point if the offense can’t generate consistent yards on the ground? A YPC mark of 4.6 isn’t bad, but it’s not a marked improvement from last year.

I’m not sold on UNLV yet. It seems the Rebels haven’t shaken the problems that plagued the Marcus Arroyo era.

Quarterback Doug Brumfield’s injury compounds my worries, and he’s currently questionable for Saturday.

I wouldn’t be thrilled to back this team behind Jayden Maiava. The redshirt freshman completed only 57.6% of his passes with a touchdown and a pick last week.

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Gavin Hardison has a cannon for an arm. Deion Hankins is a great running back. Tyrin Smith is a star receiver. UTEP has arguably the best offensive line in Conference USA.

What in the world is Dana Dimel doing?

His play-calling, and his play-calling alone, is why the Miners rank 93rd in EPA per Play and 110th in explosiveness through four games. The Miners rank 125th in scoring offense with 14.8 points per game.

At least he knows it.

A defense that returned its entire front six from last year — led by star defensive end Praise Amaewhule — has regressed against the run. Northwestern ran for almost 200 yards, posting .33 EPA per Rush, which ranks in the 80th percentile.

To be fair, there’s returning production on the defense but little experience.

I don’t want to bail out Hardison and Co. completely, given the quarterback is completing fewer than 60% of his passes while averaging a negative EPA per Dropback and throwing four picks.

And I don’t want to bail out the defense completely, either, given that the unit ranks 113th nationally in EPA per Play Allowed and 103rd in Success Rate Allowed.

But for a roster this talented to be this bad, coaching has to be the problem.

For example, UTEP ranks 115th in SP+’s Special Teams ranking — a sign of bad coaching. For another example, UTEP ranks 91st in Points Per Opportunity after ranking 122nd last season — another sign of bad coaching.

How does UTEP fix this? Outside of firing Dimel, I have no clue.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and UTEP match up statistically:

UNLV Offense vs. UTEP Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	95	112
Line Yards	94	102
Pass Success	92	103
Havoc	110	115
Finishing Drives	85	103
Quality Drives	62	94

UTEP Offense vs. UNLV Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	54	76
Line Yards	47	43
Pass Success	97	126
Havoc	47	87
Finishing Drives	94	67
Quality Drives	54	80

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	4	103
PFF Coverage	67	99
Special Teams SP+	117	115
Middle 8	69	76
Seconds per Play	23.6 (16)	29.3 (101)
Rush Rate	56.1% (64)	59.0% (38)

UNLV is 3-0 against the spread. It's coming off an upset win over an SEC school.

So, I think it’s time to sell high on a Rebels team that's a tad overinflated in the markets.

Considering the continued issues across the roster (rush efficiency, secondary) and the Brumfield injury, it's a fine time to sell. I refuse to back this team behind Maiava*.

*As an aside, Brumfield could still play on Saturday, although I doubt it. If he does, I'd likely flip sides and bet UNLV. But, again, doubtful.

It’s gross to back UTEP in its current form, but there’s too much talent on this roster for it to flail at this level. This is a solid bounce-back spot at home after back-to-back road losses against Power 5 teams.

Hardison has the arm and Smith has the legs to beat UNLV deep. Meanwhile, I think Amaewhule and the front seven can hold their own against a questionable UNLV rush-heavy offense led by a relatively inexperienced offensive line lacking depth, as only two starters return from last season.

Of course, Dimel probably decides not to attack UNLV’s weaknesses, instead opting to slice-and-dice a team that keeps nothing in front of it.

Still, I have to take UTEP here, considering the situational spot and market value. The Action Network’s PRO model makes Miner Nation a slight favorite in this one, providing us three points of edge against the current spread.