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The UTEP Miners take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, N.M. Kickoff is set for 4:00 p.m. EDT on MW+.
New Mexico is favored by -22.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2800. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my UTEP vs. New Mexico prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
UTEP vs New Mexico Prediction
- UTEP vs. New Mexico Pick: New Mexico -22.5 (-110)
My New Mexico vs. UTEP best bet is on the Lobos to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
UTEP vs New Mexico Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | +1160 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | -2800 |
- UTEP vs New Mexico point spread: UTEP +22.5 (-110), New Mexico -22.5 (-110)
- UTEP vs New Mexico over/under: 48.5 (-115o / -105u)
- UTEP vs New Mexico moneyline: UTEP +1160, New Mexico -2800
UTEP vs New Mexico College Football Preview
UTEP Miners Betting Preview: Early Struggles
UTEP is off to a 1-3 start, but it has certainly challenged itself in nonconference with losses against Oklahoma, Michigan, and Oregon State. The Miners will look for a bounce-back outing after Oregon State spoiled their homecoming game.
The Beavers amassed 451 yards of total offense and more than doubled the Miners' 222 yards, despite having the ball for 34 minutes. It was already the third time this season the Miners have been held under 250 yards of total offense. They rank 136th in total offense, 128th in scoring offense, and 124th in Success Rate.
Quarterback E.J. Colson has shown some flashes, completing 66% of his passes with seven touchdowns and interceptions. He threw four touchdowns in the win over Texas Southern. However, he is also 133rd in the FBS in QBR. His offensive line has done him no favors, as he has already been sacked 14 times, and the Miners rank 137th in Havoc Allowed.
In its three losses, UTEP has been outscored 136-24, and that has produced some ugly defensive numbers. It ranks 134th in scoring defense, 131st in Success Rate Allowed, and 121st in Havoc.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Dominating Defense
UTEP and New Mexico share a common opponent in the Oklahoma Sooners. While UTEP lost 51-0 in Norman, New Mexico stayed within a possession in a 14-6 defeat. So far, it is New Mexico's only setback, as it is off to a 3-1 start and is coming off a 42-18 victory over rival New Mexico State in the Rio Grande Rivalry.
As usual, the run game led the way as UNM ran for 253 yards and five touchdowns. Scottie Humphrey led the way with 104 yards and two touchdowns and has run for 285 yards and five touchdowns this season. The Lobos run the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the FBS, and it has translated to a 59th-place ranking in Rushing Success Rate and 18th in Rushing Explosiveness.
Three different ball carriers had a rush over 20 yards as the Lobos scored 40 points for the second time this season. They are averaging 39 points per game while giving up just 11.5 points per game, the eighth-best scoring defense in the FBS. New Mexico may be in line to dominate defensively once again.
New Mexico has forced two turnovers or more in each of its first four games. Without committing a turnover in its first four games, New Mexico leads the FBS at +14 in turnover margin, with nine interceptions and five forced fumbles.
Safety Tavian Combs has seen a lot of football over the years and is now in his seventh season with the program. He leads the team with three interceptions and has now recorded one in each of his last three games.
The Lobos also have 12 sacks already, and four players have recorded multiple sacks, led by Brent Karhu's three. New Mexico ranks second in Havoc and 12th in Success Rate Allowed.
UTEP vs New Mexico Pick, Betting Analysis
UTEP is New Mexico's second-most common opponent, and UNM has a 43-33-3 lead in the series. This will be their first meeting as conference foes since 1998 and first overall since 2022, a 27-10 New Mexico victory. This time around, it could be even more lopsided.
New Mexico should dominate a UTEP offense that is both struggling to move the ball and protect its quarterback. If that translates into more New Mexico turnovers, it will set up its own offense with more opportunities with short fields.
Having an advantage on the line of scrimmage, New Mexico should be able to impose its will on the ground with its rushing attack.
New Mexico's three wins thus far have all been by 24 points or more, while UTEP's losses have all been by 26 points. At -22.5, I see a bit of value on the Lobos.
Pick: New Mexico -22.5 (-110, FanDuel | Play -23.5)
