The UTEP Miners take on the Sam Houston State Bearkats in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
UTEP is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Sam Houston, meanwhile, comes in as a +2.5 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 points.
Here’s my UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 15.
UTEP vs Sam Houston Prediction
- UTEP vs. Sam Houston Pick: Sam Houston +3
My Sam Houston vs. UTEP best bet is on the Bearkats to cover the spread at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UTEP vs Sam Houston Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- UTEP vs Sam Houston Spread: UTEP -2.5, Sam Houston +2.5
- UTEP vs Sam Houston Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- UTEP vs Sam Houston Moneyline: UTEP -140, Sam Houston +120
UTEP vs Sam Houston College Football Betting Preview
UTEP Miners Betting Preview: Nelson Underwhelming
The Scotty Walden era has yet to get its footing in El Paso.
Walden brought an ultra-tempo offense to UTEP with a promise of high-flying, high-scoring affairs. Through 18 games, UTEP has scored 30-plus against three FBS opponents (3-0 in such games!) and failed to score 14 eight times.
This season, the Miners topped out with 25 points scored in a loss to ULM and have averaged 14 points against FBS foes.
It doesn't help that transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson just hasn't been any good. The former blue-chip recruit has nine interceptions on the season, and his receivers have dropped 14 passes.
It's resulted in an offense that ranks 130th in points per drive scored and owns an 0-5 mark against FBS competition.
Despite the tempo, UTEP's defense has fared quite well.
No team has blown it out thanks to a unit that ranks 25th in Success Rate allowed and fourth in Success Rate allowed on third and fourth down.
Defensive coordinator Bobby Daly brought his scheme down from Montana State, and it has thrived through six weeks here.
Linebacker Micah Davey earned All-America honors at McNeese and now leads the team with 40 tackles and has added eight pressures. He's likely the best player on the field this Wednesday.
But as good as the defense can be, the offense sinks any chance at bowl eligibility.
Four of UTEP's final six games come away from home, and opponents after Sam Houston left on the slate are a combined 7-3 in CUSA play.
Perhaps the Miners move in the right direction, but an improvement on 3-9 from last year seems unlikely.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: Offense Continues to Struggle
Once K.C. Keeler left for Temple, Sam Houston decided to move in the opposite direction.
It went from a rock-fight specialist to an Air Raid attack, hiring Phil Longo to be the head coach. The move was meant to shift the identity of the Bearkats on the field and turn them into a fun watch.
But heading into midweek CUSA play, Sam Houston stands 0-6 with an offense that ranks 129th in points per drive and a defense that ranks 132nd. To put it kindly, the team has been downright awful.
Despite rostering many of the same pieces from last year's team — which scored just enough points per game to win 10 games and dropped 40 on Texas State — the offense looks confused and disorganized.
Quarterback Hunter Watson played well last week against Jacksonville State but missed two games to injury early on. There's little identity on the ground, and Sam Houston's top receivers haven't been utilized properly.
But even 24 points is enough to secure wins in Conference USA against some bottom-rung offenses. It's the defense that has sunk the ship early on.
The secondary can't cover, leading to a ranking of 135th in Passing Success Rate allowed, and Sam Houston is one of the worst tackling teams in the nation.
Sam Houston's best defender, linebacker JaMair Diaz, missed the last two games to injury and is questionable for Week 8.
Longo has a few years to get things on track. For starters, the school invested a ton of money to renovate Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, signaling more investment in a football program that hasn't spent like an FBS program since transitioning from FCS a few years ago.
His offensive system may take another year to integrate, and Longo needs to bring in players specialized for the Air Raid.
But for this year, it might be a lost cause.
UTEP vs Sam Houston Pick, Betting Analysis
UTEP opened as a +6.5 underdog in this game, a number that quickly disappeared, as the Miners are now favored by 2.5 points. The total was bet up from 45.5 to 47.5.
With a loss Wednesday night, Sam Houston's bowl aspirations come to an end at 0-7. While the feeling of bowl ineligibility is likely already cemented in the locker room, teams will often avoid losing that seventh game, if only for another week.
There are some advantages to playing games at Shell Energy Stadium if you're Sam Houston.
For one, more alumni likely live in Houston or close to Houston than in Huntsville proper.
But traffic jams, especially for night and midweek games, have become a real issue. Attendance is down, and the crowd is very late arriving at the venue due to Houston traffic. On a work/school night, going to this game is logistically difficult. That's to say, there's probably not going to be a full house.
This line moved drastically, and there are plenty of UTEP bettors with nice numbers in pocket. But results show that numbers are moving too far this season. Fading closing numbers at kickoff has resulted in a 55% cover rate (h/t Brad Powers).
Good practice says to take the home 'dog in a game with a low total. This year's practice says it's also sharp to fade closing numbers that swing too far.
We have two bad football teams, two horrendous offenses, and the visitors bring in a bad quarterback. That and good practice lead me to take Sam Houston at +3 or better at "home" on Wednesday night.
Pick: Sam Houston +3
UTEP vs Sam Houston Betting Trends
