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The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, Georgia, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Georgia is favored by -25.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, enters as a +25.5 underdog and is +1600 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Vanderbilt vs. Georgia prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
Vanderbilt vs Georgia Prediction
- Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Pick: Under 50.5
My Georgia vs. Vanderbilt best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Vanderbilt vs Georgia Odds, Spread
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +1600 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -5000 |
- Vanderbilt vs Georgia Spread: Georgia -25.5 (-110), Vanderbilt +25.5 (-110)
- Vanderbilt vs Georgia Over/Under: 50.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Vanderbilt vs Georgia Moneyline: Vanderbilt +1600, Georgia -5000
Vanderbilt vs Georgia College Football Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
After squeaking past NC State, Vanderbilt fell hard back down to reality in a conference matchup against Auburn, losing to the Tigers 21-15.
Quarterback Jared Curtis struggled to air out the ball in the Commodores' loss, throwing for just 199 yards while failing to find the end zone.
Makhilyn Young and Sedrick Alexander were also unable to find success on the ground, combining for a total of 59 yards.
Vanderbilt’s lack of production on offense has made it difficult to be competitive this season, ranking outside the top 90 in Offensive Success Rate, Explosiveness and Points Per Opportunity.
While it has been able to take care of the ball, sustaining drives down the field has been a hassle, leaving the Commodores vulnerable to stalling out before reaching scoring position.
Luckily for Vanderbilt, the defense has been far more productive this season, entering Week 5 ranked 18th in Success Rate allowed, 24th in Passing EPA allowed, and 33rd in Havoc.
Even though the 'Dores do give up explosive plays at an alarming rate, they can mask it when in the shortened field, trading touchdowns for field goals to keep it close on the scoreboard.
Protecting the end zone will be vital in Vanderbilt’s chances of upsetting Georgia, as the Bulldogs lead the nation in Finishing Drives.
Prolonged possessions will also help drain the clock, swinging variance toward the Commodores' way while keeping it uncomfortably close on the scoreboard.
Georgia Bulldogs Betting Preview: Rolling Toward CFP
In Georgia’s toughest test so far this season, the Bulldogs made quick work of Oklahoma, routing the Sooners, 41-13.
Georgia’s defense suffocated John Mateer for all four quarters, holding Oklahoma’s quarterback to just 238 total yards of offense. The Bulldogs created Havoc at a high rate, forcing the Sooners into four turnovers to help pull away.
While a dominant performance against Oklahoma’s offense is hardly worth hanging a hat on, Georgia has been consistent since the start of the regular season, ranking near the top of the board in Success Rate allowed, Explosiveness allowed and Havoc.
The front seven has played a major role in the Bulldogs' success on defense this season, leaping into the top 10 in Rushing EPA allowed.
To help turn Georgia into a well-rounded contender capable of making a run to the national title game, Gunner Stockton has been efficient four games into the season, averaging over 200 yards of offense per game while completing 74.3% of his passes.
Stockton’s running ability applies pressure to opposing linebackers, forcing them to anchor across the middle, which helps the Bulldogs' pass-catchers slip behind them.
If the second level drops back, Stockton can extend plays with his legs when a running lane opens up while the back end is scrambled in coverage, keeping the Bulldogs ahead of the sticks en route to the red zone.
Once inside the 20, the Bulldogs have been able to capitalize on scoring opportunities, averaging 5.82 Points Per Opportunity.
Vanderbilt vs Georgia Picks, Betting Analysis
Even in a win over the Sooners, it’s tough to shake how poor Georgia’s offense looked when matched up against a high-quality defense. In his brief appearances, Stockton underwhelmed, throwing for just 171 yards while completing 56% of his passes.
While it didn’t matter in the long run, a sluggish outing like that will come back to bite Georgia while locked into a highly volatile contest.
Enter Vanderbilt, a defense that has played at a high level four games into the year while ranking above league average in Finishing Drives allowed.
The Commodores also create Havoc at a high rate at multiple levels of the field, making it easier to throw opposing quarterbacks off their rhythm while they struggle to connect with their pass-catchers.
If Stockton is unable to air out the ball, finding success on the ground will be a challenge against a front seven that excels at stuffing the run, with top-60 marks in Rushing Success Rate allowed and PPA allowed.
This will force the Bulldogs to make up a majority of the distance to gain on later downs, an unsustainable style of play that will result in hard stops.
With Vanderbilt lacking the talent on offense needed to move the ball on Georgia, Saturday’s SEC tilt will turn into a defensive slugfest, keeping the score under the listed total.
If Vandy's team total crosses through the key number of 14, diversify your risk by placing a separate wager on the Commodores to be held under that number as well.
Pick: Under 50.5
