The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 road underdog and is +115 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 points.
Here’s my Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas Pick: Vanderbilt Team Total Under 21.5 · Diego Pavia Under 50.5 Rush Yards
My Texas vs. Vanderbilt best bet is on the Commodores to go under their team total, while quarterback Diego Pavia goes under his rushing yards player prop. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Vanderbilt vs Texas Odds, Spread, Line
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -165 |
- Vanderbilt vs Texas Spread: Texas -3, Vanderbilt +3
- Vanderbilt vs Texas Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Vanderbilt vs Texas Moneyline: Vanderbilt ML +140, Texas ML -165
Vanderbilt vs Texas NCAAF Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
Vanderbilt continues a march to the College Football Playoff after picking up two home conference games over LSU and Missouri.
Both victories came in convincing fashion, as the Commodores won with at least a 70% post-game win expectancy in both thanks an average of at least 5.6 yards per play on rushing attempts.
Quarterback Diego Pavia and running back Sedrick Alexander have led the multi-run concept attack. The new element is Makhilyn Young, who has posted three explosive runs in the past two games.
The Commodores' ground attack has been one of the best in the country, but top-10 ranks in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives have made this the most efficient unit in the SEC.
Pavia leads an offense that has the 14th-highest rate of standard downs, combined with the best overall Success Rate in passing downs.
At 30.7 seconds per play, the Vanderbilt game plan is to hold the edge in time of possession with a punishing ground game.
The defense is where the potential to miss the CFP comes in.
Missouri ran for three explosives on the ground, generating at least two first downs on half of its 10 offensive possessions.
The pass defense has struggled against a schedule of mostly average passing offenses, ranking outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and pass breakups per game.
As SEC offensive coordinators get more tape on the Commodores defense, expect shots downfield against a bottom-20 secondary in pass explosives allowed.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
Quarterback Arch Manning left the Mississippi State game with an injury and will be in concussion protocol throughout the week.
Backup Matthew Caldwell entered against the Bulldogs in mop-up duty, producing a touchdown in his only passing attempt.
Caldwell is a journeyman with a resume that includes stops at Troy, Gardner-Webb and Jacksonville State. The fifth-year senior has 14 big-time throws to 26 turnover-worthy plays, indicating the best part of the Texas offense may be the running game in Week 10.
Two areas have kept the Longhorns alive for a shot at the College Football Playoff: defense and special teams.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski fields one of the top units in all of college football in terms of Success Rate allowed and limiting explosives.
Texas ranks top-10 in creating a pass rush, PFF tackle grading and passing downs EPA allowed.
The special teams have been just as dangerous, even with an SP+ rank of 57th. Returner Ryan Niblett has generated instant offense with two punt return touchdowns in the past three games.
Vanderbilt vs Texas NCAAF Week 10 Pick
The question remains: Is any defense capable of shutting down Pavia in his quest for the Heisman Trophy and a Vanderbilt postseason run?
Texas' nickel defense has destroyed teams running man and counter run concepts, two of the most-used packages by Vanderbilt. Where the Commodores will have success is with inside zone, where the Longhorns' Success Rate falls to 44%.
More importantly, Pavia has only three rushing attempts off zone this season, with 20 going to Alexander. The Longhorns will surely key off Pavia in wildcat formation, leaving Vanderbilt to depend on Young and Alexander.
Texas should deny extra yardage to any rusher, as the Longhorns rank ninth in broken tackles allowed.
The unknown comes from a Texas offense that hasn't played at home since Sept. 20 against Sam Houston. Manning or Caldwell will have advantages with slot DeAndre Moore Jr. and wideout Ryan Wingo.
The Vanderbilt 2-4-5 has been shredded at the second level, ranking 89th in contested catch rank. Manning has found explosives against quarters coverage on out routes.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Texas to be favored by 5.5 points if Manning were to clear concussion protocol. Without the starter, the Longhorns would be at the current market number with Caldwell.
The better bet is on a Texas defense that's expected to lock down Pavia on man and counter concepts, leaving the Commodores to run inside zone with Alexander.
The Vanderbilt quarterback has also seen a dip in his yards per rush attempt and yards after first contact over the past four games.
Pick: Vanderbilt Team Total Under 21.5 · Diego Pavia Under 50.5 Rush Yards
Vanderbilt vs Texas Betting Trends to Know
