The Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, Florida. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Florida State is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Wake Forest vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Wake Forest vs Florida State Prediction
- Wake Forest vs. Florida State Pick: Florida State -9.5 or Better
My Florida State vs. Wake Forest best bet is on the Seminoles. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Wake Forest vs Florida State Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- Wake Forest vs Florida State point spread: Florida State -10 (-110), Wake Forest +10 (-110)
- Wake Forest vs Florida State over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Wake Forest vs Florida State moneyline: Wake Forest +280, Florida State -360
Wake Forest vs Florida State Pick
Last week, I said that Wake Forest might have the most underrated defense in college football.
The Deacs certainly looked the part in holding SMU to 12 points. Following that victory, they now rank among the top 10 nationally when adjusted for opponent.
Do I think they're a top-10 defense? Absolutely not. But this is a feisty bunch.
However, this is a very tough spot for the Demon Deacons following that upset win against a Florida State team coming off a bye following four straight losses.
As long as the Noles don't quit on the season and Tommy Castellanos suits up at quarterback (trending to play, per Mike Norvell), I like them at anything under 10.
Not only has Florida State played the much more difficult schedule, but it's also been snakebit in a number of close losses.
The Noles still boast a very sturdy run defense that has held opponents to 3.3 yards per rush, which should completely neuter this extremely limited Wake Forest offense that has used two quarterbacks in recent weeks.
The Deacs need to get running back Demond Claiborne going on the ground to have any shot at sustaining drives, but I'm not sure they'll have success doing so in this matchup.
The Demon Deacons are also one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone when they actually get down inside the 20. For the season, Wake's 72% red-zone scoring percentage ranks 129th in FBS. It has scored only nine touchdowns on 25 trips inside the 20 (36%); only Nevada and UMass have a lower touchdown rate.
Additionally, FSU will get starting cornerback Ja'Bril Rawls back from injury, which will have a ripple effect on the rest of a struggling secondary that Wake isn't really built to exploit, regardless.
Ultimately, I believe Florida State has the perfect offensive scheme to attack this Wake Forest defense. And if Florida State gets a lead, there's really not a lot of recourse for this Wake Forest offense to play from behind, while the Seminoles can stick with the ground game, limiting the heavy pressure Wake can generate when it knows teams have to pass.
Despite the tougher schedule, Florida State still has an enormous edge in Net Success Rate, available yards gained percentage, and quality drive ratio.
Assuming FSU still cares, this is a prime spot to buy the dip on the Noles, while selling high on Wake.
Pick: Florida State -9.5 or Better
