Week 10 College Football Analytics Betting Preview: Success Rate, Havoc & More (November 4)
James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: A Coastal Carolina football helmet.
It has happened, folks. The under cashed in Texas State vs. Troy, bringing the Action Analytics previews to 4-0 on the season. Can we keep up the momentum on yet another great slate of games to bring us to 5-0?
This breakdown looks at three metrics that have proven to be relevant to covering the spread:
If you're interested in why these metrics have been chosen, check out this piece by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:
“Data from the past five years indicates defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives are the biggest indicators in beating oddsmakers this college football season.”
Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in Week 10.
Havoc
What is Havoc?
Havoc is a college football term defined as a play where there’s an unexpected outcome. Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these plays are used to build an identity for a team.
The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defensed divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.
Let's see where we can find some big Havoc discrepancies in Week 9:
Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Air Force Offense vs. Army Defense
- Texas A&M Defense vs. Ole Miss Offense
- Oregon Offense vs. Cal Defense
Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- SMU Offense vs. Rice Defense
- West Virginia Defense vs. BYU Offense
- Michigan Defense vs. Purdue Offense
Success Rate
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
To calculate Success Rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by down and distance above) by total plays.
This definition is taken from our article on Success Rate.
Home Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Away Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Oregon Offense vs. Cal Defense
- New Mexico State Offense vs. Middle Tennessee State Defense
- Air Force Offense vs. Army Defense
Away Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Home Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Oregon State Offense vs. Colorado Defense
- Tennessee Defense vs. Uconn Offense
- Utah Defense vs. Arizona State Offense (Akron vs. Kent State happened alread)
Finishing Drives
What is Finishing Drives?
Finishing Drives is calculated as points per opportunity when the offense passes the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Defensively, this is how many Points per Opportunity a defense allows when the opposing offense crosses the 40-yard line.
Home Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Away Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Oregon Offense vs.Cal Defense
- Wisconsin Defense vs. Indiana Offense
- Coastal Carolina Defense vs. Old Dominion Defense
Away Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Michigan Defense vs. Purdue Offense
- Western Kentucky Offense vs. UTEP Defense
- Duke Defense vs. Wake Forest Offense
College Football Week 10 Betting Takeaways
Matchup Analysis
Folks, we have found the most out-of-proportion total of the week. Currently set at 50.5, this seems significantly too high for a matchup featuring one terrible offense, one decent offense and two decent defenses.
Granted, both these teams are elite when it comes to big offensive plays, as they both rank in the top 10 in explosiveness. However, that's where the good news for these offenses ends.
Old Dominion is terrible at literally everything else on offense, ranking in the bottom 15 of Offensive Success Rate, Havoc Allowed and Points per Opportunity.
In addition, the Monarchs excel at limiting big plays for opposing offenses, ranking in the top 10 of explosiveness allowed on defense.
Coastal is a little more adept, with its numbers hovering in the lower-40s for Offensive Success Rate, Points per Opportunity and Havoc Allowed.
However, Old Dominion's defense is ranked slightly better in every metric, except Points per Opportunity Allowed, where they rank 35th.
Give me the under on two teams that really struggle to move the ball.
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