We've reached the final spots piece for the 2025 college football season.
Let's close strong.
I've got three picks circled for Saturday night's slate, including a bold pick for this year's edition of the Iron Bowl.
Read on for our Week 14 College Football Picks and Saturday night predictions for November 29.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Auburn +6.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Illinois -7 |
  | 8 p.m. | Cal +13.5 |
Auburn +6.5 vs. Alabama
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Weird things happen at Jordan Hare, especially at night, where the Iron Bowl will be played at Auburn in primetime for the first time since 2007.
If you like crazy college football atmospheres, this is as good as home-field advantage gets for what is essentially a playoff game for Alabama, which has undoubtedly had its road woes in recent seasons.
In fact, since 2021, the Tide are just 5-13 (27.8%) ATS in true road games, failing to cover by over a touchdown per game.
Alabama deserves a ton of credit for an impressive turnaround following an opening week loss at Florida State, but it has escaped quite a few games that could've gone either way (Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina).
In fairness, they did statistically dominate Oklahoma, but that doesn't change the fact that the Tide could easily have three or four losses this season.
Conversely, Auburn has been snakebit all season. Just take a look at some of these losses:
- 24-17 at Oklahoma
- 16-10 at Texas A&M
- 20-10 vs. Georgia
- 23-17 vs. Missouri in double OT (missed several kicks)
- 10-3 vs. Kentucky
- 45-38 at Vanderbilt in OT
If not for a late, unnecessary Stockton touchdown run, Auburn would have six losses all by one possession, with four of those six coming against teams still in the College Football Playoff discussion.
I could also go into a long rant about how the refs have cost them several games, too. The Georgia game was the most egregious, as the Tigers should have been up 17-0 before every single call went against them for about 20 minutes straight, which eventually led to the suspension of the head referee.
They were also royally screwed several times in the close road loss at Oklahoma and didn't get a favorable late whistle for Missouri.
Maybe that happens again here. I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind, given that Alabama needs to win to get into the College Football Playoff, but I can't let that prevent me from making a bet.
Auburn doesn't get blown out by anybody.
The Tigers have been in every single game until the bitter end, even with incompetent quarterback play from Jackson Arnold for most of the season across one of the most challenging schedules in the nation.
How have they managed to do so? It all starts with the defense, which is arguably one of the nation's top-five units.
Alabama, which already struggles to run the ball, won't get anything on the ground in this matchup. That will leave it all on the shoulders of Ty Simpson and the passing attack. It's worth mentioning that he will be without tight end Josh Cuevas, which isn't insignificant.
You do want to attack Auburn through the air, but being completely one-dimensional on offense in this hostile an environment against a terrific pass rush (top-25 in pressure rate) is asking for trouble, especially considering the Tide rank outside the top-100 nationally in Sack EPA allowed.
However, it's on the other side of the ball where Auburn might be a bit undervalued, with an offense trending up following the departure of Hugh Freeze.
Since he was let go, Auburn has made several changes that have paid immediate dividends. The Tigers have started using more tempo and are getting the ball into space more quickly to their outstanding wide receiver corps.
Most importantly, they now only have one play caller.
The quarterback play has also improved since moving on from Arnold. Ashton Daniels (who threw for 353 in his most recent start against Vanderbilt) should get the start, but I'd expect to see some packages for Deuce Knight following his electrifying six-touchdown performance last week.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see some run packages for Arnold, especially given that Alabama remains vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
All that uncertainty at quarterback definitely makes this a much more difficult prep for Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack.
It's also worth noting that Auburn's offensive line has been trending up since moving Mason Murphy to center. The Tigers should be able to get the ground game going against the Tide, making life easier for whoever is under center.
Lastly, don't sleep on special teams. Alabama has been dreadful in that department (102nd, per SP+) with major kicking issues, while Auburn's Alex McPherson has righted the ship of late. Kick 6, anyone?
I'm expecting another classic in this series.
Pick: Auburn ATS (Waiting for +7, but would bet +6 smaller)
Illinois -7 vs. Northwestern
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I’ll keep this simple.
I make this closer to 10, and it’s a great buy-low, sell-high spot with the Illini coming off an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin (whose defense is playing at an incredible level at the moment).
At the same time, Northwestern just won thrillingly in the final seconds against Minnesota to clinch a bowl, which is a big deal for that team this year.
I expect the Illini to bounce back at home (where they’ve played much better all year) in primetime against a Wildcat team it can handle at the line of scrimmage, which should allow Luke Altmyer to move the ball through the air with relative ease.
I think we are getting Illinois at a discount here and could see the Wildcats coming out a bit flat.
Pick: Illinois -7 or Better
California +13.5 vs. SMU
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
This line opened around SMU -10.5, but it has since gone too far, in my opinion.
SMU does need to win to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship, so I believe we may be getting a bit of a "must-win" tax on a game I project at 10.5.
Ultimately, this sets up as a pristine buy-low/sell-high spot, with Cal coming off a blowout loss to Stanford in which it actually out-gained the Cardinal. At the same time, SMU is fresh off a blowout win over a checked-out Louisville squad that was extremely shorthanded (including at quarterback).
It's also a decent matchup for the Bears, who can't run the ball a lick. Well, nobody can run the ball against the Mustangs, so that won't matter much here.
It will be up to JKS slinging the pill against a vulnerable SMU pass defense. He has to avoid taking too many sacks, which is my primary concern going into this matchup.
Additionally, Cal's run defense is dreadful, but SMU has really struggled to find a consistent rushing attack all season long. The strength of the Cal defense, by far, is the secondary, which is critical against the pass-heavy Stangs.
Historically, Cal has thrived as a large underdog under defensive backs whisperer Justin Wilcox, whose defenses have consistently excelled at limiting explosive passing plays.
Wilcox is no longer in town after being let go following last week's loss. What impact will that have this week? It's hard to say, but the defense's structure should remain the same.
Plus, you could see a potential one-week coach bump with Nick Rolovich, as we've seen many times after in-season coaching changes. We could see some new wrinkles on offense that SMU doesn't have on tape.
This line is just too high. Cal closed as a 4.5-point underdog at home against Virginia not too long ago and should have covered if not for a pick-six in the final seconds.
This is also a team that recently went on the road and won at Louisville to end the Cardinals' season.
SMU has played better of late (in part due to a healthier Kevin Jennings), but this isn't an elite team by any stretch. The Mustangs have had plenty of very underwhelming results, including home games against Syracuse and Stanford that left a lot to be desired. This isn't easy travel, either.
Pick Cal +13 or Better
