Week 2 of the college football season continues with my two top NCAAF predictions for the afternoon slate, featuring two large spreads.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 2, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 70-53-1 (58.9%)
- 2025: 0-0 (0%)
- Overall: 169-123-2 (57.9%)
Week 2 NCAAF Predictions for Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Cincinnati -20.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UAB +21.5 |
Cincinnati -20.5 vs. Bowling Green
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Bowling Green experienced massive turnover in the offseason with a mass exodus of seniors on both sides of the ball, in addition to bringing in a brand-new staff led by head coach Eddie George.
On paper, George passed his first test with a 26-7 win over FCS Lafayette. However, if you watched that game, it wasn't pretty.
The Falcons benefited from an opening kickoff return touchdown and added another short-field touchdown to take a 17-3 lead into the half.
The offense looked rough under new quarterback Drew Pyne, who arrived late to campus this summer to take over a new offense in his fourth collegiate stop.
Pyne, who finished just 12-of-18 for 109 yards, likely won't find any success through the air against the Bearcats, who also have the defensive line to completely disrupt BG's run-heavy offense.
I'm just not really sure how the Falcons realistically sustain any drives in this game unless Harold Fannin magically regains eligibility.
Cincy's offense struggled immensely against Nebraska, especially through the air. While the Bearcats did eclipse 200 yards on the ground, Sorsby finished a pitiful 13-of-25 for 69 yards, capped off by the game-sealing interception.
I'm sure they want to get the bad taste out of their mouth, and a rebuilt wide receiver room should have much more success against a Bowling Green defense that lost a lot of talent from last year's stingy unit.
Scott Satterfield can't be trusted in close games, but we're in trouble if this plays out that way. I'd imagine this could end up looking like Cincy's 34-0 home win over Houston last season.
Notable Nugget
Satterfield is 26-17-1 ATS (60.5%) as a double-digit favorite vs. FBS competition.
Projection: Cincinnati -23.8
Pick: Cincinnati -20.5 (Play to -21)
UAB +21.5 at Navy
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
A service academy laying over three touchdowns? The 'dog will always pique my interest in that scenario (although Navy isn't certainly much more explosive than in years past).
The problem in this case is that it requires one to place real currency on Trent Dilfer and the dumpster fire UAB program. Reluctantly, I bit.
Navy did win in Birmingham last year by a score of 41-18 as a 5.5-point favorite. However, both teams had 22 first downs, and UAB finished with only about 50 fewer total yards (452-395).
The Blazers did successfully move the ball but just shot themselves in the foot with two turnovers and over 100 penalty yards.
The offense has enough juice to put up some points against a Navy defense that lost its top two linebackers and three key defensive backs from one of its best secondaries in years.
The biggest concern for UAB is its defense, which was torched by Alabama State last week. The Blazers should be healthier this week on that side of the ball, but the front seven is super reliant on a lot of lower-level guys.
I did like a lot of the transfers they added on the back end, but the results weren't great in Week 1 against an FCS opponent.
Navy did whatever it wanted on offense in last year's meeting, but the Midshipmen do have some questions along the offensive line — particularly at tackle — a position of uber-importance in terms of communication up front.
Can UAB take advantage? Probably not, but it did at least see this new-look Navy offense last year.
Additionally, the Blazers hired Steve Russ (and a number of NFL assistants) to run the defense in the offseason. Russ spent years with Air Force, so he has plenty of experience game-planning for these types of offenses. That's a major potential edge.
Bottom line, this is too many points for a UAB offense that can keep this close enough.
Plus, Navy has some looming regression in the red zone and turnover departments after last season. The Blazers may also have a special teams edge in this one.
I'm holding my nose and taking the points.
Pick: UAB +21.5 (Play to +21)
