The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls called a toss-up, and the live midterm results finally moved Monday, with Mary Peltola stretching her lead over Dan Sullivan from 637 votes to 2,517 while both exchanges price her at 98¢.
The Alaska Beacon's calculations now show that first-choice lead outweighing Sullivan's ranked-choice advantage, though a much larger batch of absentee and early ballots is due Tuesday.
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a small Peltola edge, and the count now shows her up 1.1 points, so Tuesday's release is the next real test.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both exchanges as Alaska waits on its biggest batch yet.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (98¢) | $101.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (3¢) | $3,052.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (98¢) | $101.89 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (2.1¢) | $4,456.42 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and unless one candidate tops 50% of first-choice votes, the race cannot be formally decided until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
A methodology note: Polymarket's trade tickets only show each candidate's own odds, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against the opponent's quoted Yes price. Alaska's ballot also carries other candidates and ranked-choice tabulation, so those No prices are approximations rather than exact quotes.
Mary Peltola (YES 98¢ / NO 3¢, flat)
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Peltola at 98¢, implying a 98% chance, while a $100 ticket shows 99% odds and wins $101.00.
Polymarket's tracker now shows her ahead 106,329 votes (48.6%) to 103,805 (47.5%) with 71% counted, a lead of about 2,500 that was 637 as recently as Sunday.
The price held at 98¢ because traders had already priced a Peltola win, so Monday's batch mostly confirmed the trade. Her campaign says about 68% of the newly counted votes went to her, citing strength in Anchorage and Chevak.
Dan Sullivan (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢, -1 pt)
Sullivan is priced at 3¢, a 3% chance, down 1 point on the board, and a $100 ticket would win $3,052.00.
His ranked-choice advantage has shrunk. The Alaska Beacon had shown Sullivan finishing ahead once Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. were eliminated, but said Monday's gain gives Peltola enough first-choice cushion to overcome that.
That leaves the senator needing Tuesday's batch to break sharply his way, a reversal of the pattern in the ballots counted so far.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable, so the board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number.
Kalshi's tracker shows 75.9% of votes counted with the Democrat ahead 106,321 to 103,804, and volume has reached $41,684,118, up from $38.2 million on Monday.
Kalshi's rules govern exactly when the market settles, since Alaska's tabulation runs to November 18 and certification is targeted for November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 98¢ / NO 2.1¢, +0.6 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 98¢, a 98% chance, with the displayed chance at 97.9% and up 0.6, and a $100 ticket pays $101.89.
Peltola posted over the weekend that the trend shows her leading the remaining groups of voters by a wide margin and that she expects it to continue, and Monday's count gave that claim its first real support.
She is also closing in on an outright win. Her 48.6% first-choice share sits under the 50% threshold that would make ranked-choice tabulation unnecessary.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 2.1¢ / NO 98.2¢, -0.6 pts)
The Republican contract costs 2.1¢ for Yes, with Kalshi's displayed chance also at 2.1%, down 0.6, and a $100 ticket rounds the price to 2¢ and pays $4,456.42.
The courtroom is the other open front. A QNC News report says Peltola's team has sued the state for data on rejected absentee ballots, which could set up a court fight in Anchorage.
The Justice Department's appeal over the second Sullivan is also still pending, and the Alaska Beacon has reported it could be moot if Peltola's margin exceeds that candidate's vote total. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. holds about 1.7% of the vote, or roughly 3,700 votes, so her 2,517-vote lead has not cleared that bar yet.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare as Peltola vs Sullivan Polls Turn Into a 2,500-Vote Lead
The two boards now agree on Peltola. She sits at YES 98¢ on Polymarket and the Democratic Party at YES 98¢ on Kalshi, while Sullivan is at YES 3¢ and the Republican Party at YES 2.1¢.
The only real gap is on the long shot. Polymarket's Peltola ticket reads 99% odds against a 98% board price, but Kalshi's Yes prices add up to 100.1¢, a tight book that leaves Sullivan nearly a full cent cheaper than on Polymarket.
That shows up in the payouts. A $100 ticket on Sullivan returns $4,456.42 on Kalshi against $3,052.00 on Polymarket, about 46% more, while a $100 ticket on Peltola returns $101.89 on Kalshi against $101.00.
The movement is small but points the same way. Polymarket shows Sullivan down 1 and Peltola flat, while Kalshi's displayed chance is up 0.6 for the Democrat and down 0.6 for the Republican.
Both trackers now show a lead of roughly 2,500, with Polymarket at 71% counted and Kalshi at 75.9%, so the two exchanges are reading the same Monday update.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
Monday's batch moved the count far more than it moved the market. About 4,900 ballots lifted Peltola's lead from 637 to 2,517 votes, yet Polymarket's Peltola price stayed at 98¢ and Kalshi's rose less than a cent.
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up two to three points on first-choice votes, and the live midterm results had stalled at 0.3 until Monday, when the lead widened to 1.1. That is the first sign the count is catching up to the polling.
The ranked-choice picture flipped with it. The Alaska Beacon's calculations had Sullivan winning once second choices were redistributed, but Peltola's Monday gain was large enough to outweigh that advantage.
The next number to watch is 50%. Newsweek's earlier estimate said Peltola needed about 58.3% of the remaining ballots to win outright, and her campaign says she took about 68% of Monday's batch, though that figure comes from her side.
Tuesday's release is far larger. The Division of Elections is expected to add tens of thousands of absentee and early ballots received just before Election Day after officials finished checking poll registers for double voting, and the Beacon called the update potentially decisive.
After that, the Peltola vs Sullivan polls get one more check on Friday, November 13, with ranked-choice tabulation on November 18 and certification targeted for November 25.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (98¢) | $101.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (3¢) | $3,052.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (98¢) | $101.89 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (2.1¢) | $4,456.42 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a 2,517-vote race priced like a near lock, and Monday's count gave the price its first real support, with Peltola's first-choice lead now outweighing Sullivan's ranked-choice advantage. The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board and Kalshi are level at 98¢ for Peltola, so the exchanges agree on the read.
Tuesday's release is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, since it is the biggest batch left to test the Peltola vs Sullivan polls, and the November 18 tabulation can settle it.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up about 2 to 3 points on first-choice votes, including a 48-46 New York Times/Siena survey. After Monday's update the count has her up 1.1 points, 48.6% to 47.5%, a wider gap than the 0.3 points she held last week.
How do the Peltola vs Sullivan polls compare with the actual count?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a small Peltola edge, and the count is now moving toward it, with her lead at 2,517 first-choice votes. A much larger batch of absentee and early ballots is due Tuesday, which will show whether the gap keeps widening.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Mary Peltola at 98¢ and Dan Sullivan at 3¢. Polymarket's tracker shows Peltola ahead 106,329 to 103,805 with 71% counted, a lead of about 2,500 votes.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and both Polymarket and Kalshi carry live trackers on their Alaska Senate boards. For live midterm results here, remember that every update before November 18 shows first-choice votes only.
What changed in Monday's Alaska Senate count?
The Division of Elections added about 4,900 ballots, and Peltola's lead grew from 637 votes to 2,517. Her campaign says roughly 68% of the newly counted votes went to her, and the Alaska Beacon says her first-choice lead now outweighs Sullivan's ranked-choice advantage.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
Updates are scheduled for Tuesday, November 10 and Friday, November 13, with ranked-choice tabulation on Wednesday, November 18 and certification targeted for November 25. Until then, the midterm results are first-choice votes only.
How many ballots are left to count in Alaska?
Tens of thousands of absentee and early ballots are expected in Tuesday's release, after officials finished checking poll registers for double voting. Newsweek had estimated about 51,000 uncounted ballots before Monday's update added roughly 4,900.
Can Peltola win the Alaska Senate race without ranked-choice tabulation?
Only if she tops 50% of first-choice votes, and she is at 48.6% after Monday's count. Newsweek's earlier estimate said she needed about 58.3% of the remaining ballots to get there, and her campaign says she took about 68% of Monday's batch.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the two candidates by name, while Kalshi resolves by winning party. Both price Peltola at 98¢, but Sullivan is at 3¢ on Polymarket against 2.1¢ for the Republican Party on Kalshi, which makes Kalshi's long-shot payout larger.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the side you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
