The Mississippi Senate race 2026 is still uncalled on Tuesday, deadline day for mail-in and affidavit ballots, with Democrat Scott Colom ahead by 2,536 votes on Kalshi's feed and trading at 99¢ on Polymarket and 98.7¢ on Kalshi.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls favored Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, but the midterm results have kept Colom in front for a week, and her best remaining hopes now sit in roughly 2,700 outstanding mail ballots and thousands of affidavit ballots.
Hyde-Smith is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket and 1.4¢ on Kalshi, and today's deadlines decide how many of those ballots can still count.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms on deadline day.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (99¢) | $100.91 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (2¢) | $4,574.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (98.7¢) | $101.21 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (1.4¢) | $5,986.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket quotes its Mississippi contracts in cents from 1¢ to 99¢, and a "Yes" share on the winner pays $1.00 while a "Yes" share on the loser pays $0.
The market resolves on the winner of the Mississippi Senate election, and a plurality is enough, so there is no runoff to wait for.
A methodology note: Polymarket's ticket quotes only the Yes price on each candidate, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their opponent's quoted Yes price. Independent Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot, so treat those figures as approximations.
Scott Colom (YES 99¢ / NO 2¢, 0 pts)
Colom is unchanged at 99¢ since Monday, a 99% implied probability, after climbing from 84¢ last Wednesday.
Polymarket's tracker still shows him ahead 468,339 to 465,643 (49.1% to 48.8%) with 95% counted, a margin of about 2,700 votes, and a $100 Yes ticket shows the same $100.91 to win.
That is the thinnest payout on the board, so the price is effectively a bet that deadline-day ballots do not change the order.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢, 0 pts)
Hyde-Smith sits at 2¢, a 2% implied chance, and a $100 Yes ticket shows $4,574.00 to win.
Her best remaining ground is in Republican counties, but the math is tough. Rankin County, where she leads 61.7% to 36.1%, received 1,667 affidavit ballots, and winning them by her full county margin would net her only about 499 votes, according to the Mississippi Free Press, before any rejections.
The early affidavit returns have also leaned Colom's way. In Oktibbeha County, which Trump carried in 2024, Colom took 401 of 503 processed affidavit ballots to Hyde-Smith's 96.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's board is a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate.
Volume has passed $40.8 million, up about $1 million since Monday, and the feed shows 97.4% of the vote counted with Colom at 467,961 (49.1%) and Hyde-Smith at 465,425 (48.8%), a margin of 2,536 that is 38 votes narrower than Monday's 2,574.
Scott Colom (YES 98.7¢ / NO 1.4¢, +0.1 pts)
Kalshi has Colom at 98.7¢, a tenth of a cent above Monday, with a Chance reading of 98.6%.
A $100 stake shows a max payout of $101.21, 30¢ more than Polymarket's $100.91.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 1.4¢ / NO 98.7¢, -0.1 pts)
Hyde-Smith is at 1.4¢ with a Chance reading of 1.4%, and a $100 stake shows a max payout of $5,986.73.
That is about $1,410 more than Polymarket's $4,574.00, up from a gap of roughly $1,060 on Monday, as Kalshi's longshot quote keeps falling relative to Polymarket's.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Mississippi Senate Race 2026
Both exchanges price the same outcome. Colom is YES 99¢ on Polymarket and YES 98.7¢ on Kalshi, while Hyde-Smith is YES 2¢ and YES 1.4¢, respectively.
The longshot gap keeps widening, with Kalshi's YES 1.4¢ now 30% cheaper than Polymarket's YES 2¢, which is why the $100 payouts sit about $1,410 apart.
The structure of the quotes differs too. Polymarket's two Yes prices add up to 101¢ while Kalshi's add up to 100.1¢, and Kalshi's NO 1.4¢ on Colom and NO 98.7¢ on Hyde-Smith undercut the derived Polymarket figures of NO 2¢ and NO 99¢.
The tallies still differ, with Polymarket's tracker at about 2,700 votes and Kalshi's feed at 2,536, and neither price reacts to the gap. There is no combo board on either exchange for this race.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith Polls and Midterm Results Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls are far behind the market, which is trading the count and the calendar. The lead has sat in a narrow band since Friday, at 2,574 on the Associated Press count Monday and 2,536 on Kalshi's feed Tuesday, a small giveback that left both prices essentially where they were.
The ballot pool is smaller than it looked a week ago. Secretary of State Michael Watson said Monday that 2,732 mail-in absentee ballots were still out, down from about 3,600 last week, and that 14,239 affidavit ballots had been processed with roughly 77% accepted. The midterm results leave Hyde-Smith needing that pool to tilt her way, while Mississippi Republican Party chair Mike Hurst has said up to 20,000 ballots could be outstanding.
Rejections cannot be undone. Rankin County has rejected about 20% of the affidavit ballots it has processed, with voting at the wrong precinct accounting for just over half of those, and there is no cure process for wrong-precinct or unsigned ballots.
Today's schedule is packed. Harrison County meets at 10 a.m. to decide on its 1,448 affidavit ballots, Rankin County planned to begin scanning its affidavit ballots around 5 p.m., and DeSoto County tentatively scheduled its roughly 2,100 for after 6 p.m., with Wednesday or Thursday as fallbacks. Counties must certify their results by Friday, November 13.
Legal action remains a possibility. Hurst said last week that state law gives the party nothing to do for now but that options may open up after the fact, more than 50 attorneys and observers have been dispatched, and with no recount law in Mississippi a recount would require a court order.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (99¢) | $100.91 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (2¢) | $4,574.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (98.7¢) | $101.21 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (1.4¢) | $5,986.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Mississippi Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Mississippi Senate Race 2026 and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls could not have anticipated a race this tight, and with both exchanges at roughly 99¢ the Mississippi Senate race 2026 now hinges on whether any deadline-day ballots, or a court challenge, can move a lead of about 2,500 votes.
Friday's county certification deadline is the next hard date, and a Colom win in the final midterm results would end a Democratic Senate drought in Mississippi that dates to 1982.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What are the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Scott Colom is trading at 99¢ on Polymarket and 98.7¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Hyde-Smith sits at 2¢ on Polymarket and 1.4¢ on Kalshi.
Has the Mississippi Senate race 2026 been called?
No. As of Tuesday, November 10, no winner had been declared, with Colom ahead 467,961 to 465,425 on Kalshi's feed, a margin of 2,536 votes, and by about 2,700 votes on Polymarket's tracker.
What did the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls show before Election Day?
The polls had Hyde-Smith ahead by three to four points, including a 52-48 Wedgewood Polls survey and a 43-40 Change Research poll for the Democratic-aligned 365 Project, and the major raters called the race Likely Republican.
How do the midterm results compare with the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls?
The midterm results are well ahead of the polling for Colom, who trailed in the final surveys but has led the count for a week, which is why Hyde-Smith's YES price has fallen from 17¢ on Wednesday to 2¢ on Polymarket and 1.4¢ on Kalshi.
What happens on Tuesday, November 10, in the Mississippi Senate race?
It is the deadline for mail-in absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive and for voters who cast affidavit ballots without photo ID to show ID to their circuit clerk. Several counties, including Harrison, Rankin and DeSoto, were also scheduled to review and count affidavit ballots.
How many ballots are left to count in Mississippi?
Secretary of State Michael Watson said on Monday that 2,732 mail-in absentee ballots were still out and that 14,239 affidavit ballots had been processed, with roughly 77% accepted. The Colom campaign says about 15,000 affidavit ballots were cast, and Mississippi Republican Party chair Mike Hurst has said up to 20,000 ballots could be outstanding.
Is there a recount in the Mississippi Senate race?
Mississippi has no recount law, so a recount would require a court order. Counties must certify their results by Friday, November 13, and there is no runoff, because the top vote-getter wins.
How do I trade the Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the race is called.
