The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks open the NFL 2026 season with a Super Bowl LX rematch, and Polymarket's board is loaded for it.
Seattle enters as the defending champion and a 62% moneyline favorite, while New England is priced as a live road underdog looking for revenge.
Below are the best NFL predictions today across the moneyline, spread, total, and a deep player prop board covering both rosters.
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Best NFL Predictions Today: Our Top Polymarket Picks for Seahawks vs. Patriots
These are the seven Editor's Picks we're trading on this board, ranked from highest to lowest implied probability.
Each pick shows the board price, our rationale, and the mechanics of the actual $100 ticket behind the pick.
Sam Darnold Over 225.5 Passing Yards (Yes 52%, Yes 52¢)
Darnold enters year two in Seattle's offense with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed all healthy, and New England's secondary is breaking in a new CB2 after Riq Woolen left for Philadelphia in free agency. On a $100 buy at an average price of 52¢, this converts to roughly 192 shares, and Polymarket lists a $186.92 payout if Darnold clears the number, a gap from the raw share math that reflects order book depth and fees rather than an error. A miss means the $100 stake is gone entirely, but the payout multiple here is close to even money for a passing floor that both starting quarterbacks are hovering right around on this board.
Cooper Kupp Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (board 49%, ticket filled at 52.87¢)
Kupp is no longer Seattle's clear No. 2 behind Smith-Njigba, with Shaheed and rookie Jadarian Price also earning early-season touches, but he remains the team's most reliable possession target on early downs. The $100 order moved the price from the board's 49% up to a 52.87¢ average fill, converting to about 189 shares against a stated $183.94 payout. Winning nets roughly $84 in profit on the $100 risked; losing forfeits the full stake.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (Yes 47%, Yes 47¢)
New England ruled TreVeyon Henderson out for this game with the ankle injury that kept him off the practice field all week, which hands Stevenson a clean lead-back workload for the opener. A $100 buy at 47¢ works out to roughly 213 shares, though Polymarket's stated to-win figure is $206.21, again reflecting the usual gap between raw share math and the platform's quoted payout. If Stevenson clears 60 yards, the shares pay out $1 each; if not, the $100 is lost outright.
New England Patriots Over 2.5 Team Touchdowns (Yes 41%, Yes 42.71¢)
New England's receiver room looks different with Stefon Diggs released in March and A.J. Brown now the clear WR1, and Drake Maye is entering year three with a full offseason to build that rapport. The $100 order filled at an average price of 42.71¢, working out to roughly 234 shares against a $226.37 stated payout. A push over three total touchdowns pays out in full; anything short and the stake is lost.
Tie Score After the 1st Quarter (Yes 22%, Yes 22¢)
Opening-week kickoff games are notorious for sluggish starts as both rosters shake off the pregame ceremony and early-season rust, and this board's 22% price reflects that. On a $100 buy at 22¢, the position converts to roughly 455 shares against a stated $434.22 payout, one of the widest gaps on this board and a sign of thinner liquidity on a narrow first-quarter market. If the first quarter ends tied, the shares pay out in full; any lead at the break loses the stake.
Drake Maye Over 0.5 Anytime Touchdowns (Yes 18%, Yes 18¢)
Maye's rushing ability has been a real weapon in his first two seasons, and this market is pricing in a real chance he punches one in himself against a Seattle defense that just won a Super Bowl but is breaking in new pieces at cornerback. A $100 buy at 18¢ works out to roughly 556 shares, with the board listing a $529.50 payout, the largest multiple of the seven picks here. Any Maye touchdown, rushing or otherwise, pays out in full; no score from him and the stake is lost.
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Seahawks vs. Patriots Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts (NFL 2026 Week 1)
Money line contracts resolve based on which team wins the game outright, with no overtime tie possible under NFL rules.
A contract settles at $1 per share if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so the current price directly reflects the market's implied win probability.
New England Patriots (39%, Yes 39¢)
New England is priced as the road underdog in this Super Bowl LX rematch, with the market pricing in Seattle's home-field advantage at Lumen Field and the champion's edge in continuity.
Seattle Seahawks (62%, Yes 62¢)
Seattle is favored to open its title defense at home, though the number has ticked down slightly with Emmanwori (ankle) and Tory Horton (hamstring) both listed as questionable on the final injury report.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Spread and Total Predictions
The spread and total contracts below cover the full game as well as the 1st half and 1st quarter alternate lines Polymarket is offering on this board.
Seattle -3.5 (Yes 47%, No 54%)
Seattle winning by more than 3.5 points is priced just under a coin flip, in line with a game where New England is live but Seattle is expected to control most possessions.
Full Game Total Over 44.5 Points (Yes 49%, No 52%)
The full-game total sits almost dead even, reflecting two offenses with new-look receiver rooms and no clear track record against each other under their current rosters.
1st Half: Seattle -2.5 (Yes 52%, No 49%)
Seattle covering the first-half number is a near coin flip, slightly favoring the champions to build an early cushion.
1st Half Total Over 22.5 Points (Yes 46%, No 55%)
The first-half total leans toward the under, consistent with the slower-start theme reflected in the Tie in the 1st Quarter Editor's Pick above.
1st Quarter: Seattle -2.5 (Yes 45%, No 57%)
Seattle winning the opening quarter by more than 2.5 points is priced as the less likely outcome, another data point supporting a cautious start from both sides.
1st Quarter Total Over 7.5 Points (Yes 47%, No 55%)
The first-quarter total also leans toward the under, and combined with the half and full-game numbers, this board is pricing a game that builds gradually rather than opening fast.
Team Total Points Props
Polymarket's board quoted New England's team total across the full game and both halves; Seattle's side of these specific contracts wasn't actively priced at the time of this screenshot.
New England Team Total Over 20.5 Points, Full Game (Yes 51%, No 51%)
New England's full-game total is priced almost exactly at a coin flip, which is reasonable given the uncertainty around a retooled receiver corps in its first live test.
New England Team Total Over 8.5 Points, 1st Half (Yes 61%, No 40%)
New England is favored to clear its first-half number, which lines up with the offense looking to establish rhythm early behind Stevenson's expected workload.
New England Team Total Over 11.5 Points, 2nd Half (Yes 64%, No 56%)
The second-half number carries the highest Yes price of the three New England team totals, suggesting the market expects the Patriots offense to be more productive later in the game.
Game Flow Props: Most Passing Yards, Race to Points & Winner Markets
This set of contracts covers who leads in passing, who scores first, and who wins specific segments of the game rather than the final result.
Most Passing Yards: Drake Maye (91%) vs. Sam Darnold (68%)
Both quarterbacks are priced well above 50% on this head-to-head passing yardage market, with Maye's price having jumped 21 points recently, a sizable swing worth watching as game time approaches.
Race to 7 Points
- Seattle Seahawks first to 7 (58%, 1.72x): Seattle is favored to reach the first touchdown-equivalent scoring threshold first, consistent with its overall favorite status.
- New England Patriots first to 7 (51%, 1.96x): New England is still live in this market despite its road underdog role, priced just above a coin flip.
- Neither team reaches 7 points (2%, 50.0x): A long-shot outcome reserved for an unusually low-scoring affair.
Half and Quarter Winners
- Seattle wins the 1st half (56%): Seattle is favored to lead at the break.
- New England wins the 1st half (38%): New England is priced as the underdog for the half, in line with its full-game number.
- Tie after the 1st half (8%): A tied score at halftime is priced as a clear long shot.
- Seattle wins the 1st quarter (46%): Seattle is favored but not heavily so for the opening quarter.
- New England wins the 1st quarter (35%): New England trails in this market, matching the broader early-game trend toward Seattle.
- Tie after the 1st quarter (22%): This is the same contract behind our Editor's Pick above, priced as a real possibility given the slow-start signals across the board.
First Team to Score
- New England scores the game's first points (67%): New England is a heavy favorite to score first, a notable disconnect from its underdog moneyline price and a sign the market expects Seattle to need longer scoring drives.
- Seattle scores the game's first points (49%): Seattle is still priced competitively here despite trailing New England on this specific market.
- Neither team scores (2%): Reserved for a scoreless start well into the game.
- New England scores the game's first touchdown (46%): New England is a slight favorite to find the end zone first.
- Seattle scores the game's first touchdown (54%): Seattle holds a modest edge in this touchdown-specific version of the market.
- Neither team scores a touchdown (2%): A long-shot outcome for a game defined by field goals.
Both Teams Score a Touchdown (Yes 99%, No 2%)
The market is almost certain both offenses find the end zone at least once, which tracks with two rosters that both return proven skill-position talent.
Margin of Victory, Highest Scoring Quarter & More Game Props
These contracts break the final result down into specific margin buckets, quarter-by-quarter scoring, and a handful of longer-shot game events.
Exact Margin of Victory
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Seattle by 1-6 | Yes 15% |
| New England by 1-6 | Yes 13% |
| Seattle by 7-13 | Yes 6% |
| Seattle by 14-20 | Yes 5% |
| New England by 7-12 | Yes 5% |
| New England by 13-18 | Yes 4% |
| New England by 19-24 | Yes 2% |
| Seattle by 21+ | Yes 2% |
| Tie | Yes 2% |
| New England by 25+ | Yes 2% |
A one-to-six point Seattle win is the single most likely margin bucket on the board, with a New England win of the same size close behind.
Highest Scoring Quarter
- 2nd quarter (46%): The second quarter is the clear favorite to produce the most points, up sharply from earlier pricing.
- 4th quarter (23%): The fourth quarter is a distant second, consistent with garbage-time or late-game scoring bursts.
- 1st quarter (5%): The opening quarter is priced as unlikely to be the highest-scoring frame, matching the slow-start theme.
- 3rd quarter (3%): The third quarter is the least likely of the four to lead in scoring.
Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown (Yes 25%, No 76%)
A one-in-four chance of a non-offensive score is a meaningful number for a Week 1 game with new special teams pieces on both sides.
Successful Two-Point Conversion (Yes 16%, No 85%)
A two-point try succeeding is priced as a real but unlikely event, standard for a single-game two-point market.
Team Total Offensive Yards
| Threshold | New England | Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Lower threshold | Over 300.5 (Yes 43%) | Over 350.5 (Yes 44%) |
| Middle threshold | Over 350.5 (Yes 36%) | Over 400.5 (Yes 30%) |
| Higher threshold | Over 400.5 (Yes 2%) | Over 450.5 (Yes 2%) |
Seattle is priced to gain more total offense than New England at every comparable threshold on this board, which lines up with its favorite status in the main markets.
Other Game Props
- Pick-six (Yes 50%, No 99%): A defensive touchdown off an interception return is priced as roughly a coin flip.
- Kickoff or punt return touchdown (Yes 51%, No 96%): A return touchdown is priced similarly to the pick-six market.
- Safety scored (Yes 2%, No 99%): A safety remains one of the rarest events on the board.
- Overtime (Yes 8%, No 96%): The game going to overtime is priced as unlikely but not negligible.
Patriots and Seahawks Team Prop Odds
These team-level props cover touchdowns, first downs, and yardage totals for each roster independently.
| Team Prop | New England | Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Total Touchdowns Over 2.5 | Yes 41% | Yes 57% |
| Total 1st Downs Over 19.5 | Yes 37% | Yes 37% |
| Total Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 | Yes 32% | Yes 32% |
| Total Rushing Touchdowns Over 1.5 | Yes 2% | Yes 2% |
| Total Passing Yards Over 205.5 | Yes 57% | Yes 57% |
| Total Rushing Yards Over 89.5 | Yes 51% | Yes 51% |
| Total Scrimmage Yards Over 332.5 | Yes 50% | Yes 50% |
| Total Receptions Over 19.5 | Yes 70% | Yes 48% |
| Total Field Goals Made Over 1.5 | Yes 55% | Yes 55% |
| Total 40+ Yard Field Goals Made Over 1.5 | Yes 27% | Yes 26% |
| Total 4th Down Conversions Over 0.5 | Yes 50% | Yes 50% |
| Total Sacks Over 1.5 | Yes 68% | Yes 68% |
New England's team total touchdown price sits well below Seattle's, but the receptions market is the widest gap on the board, with New England's pass-catching group priced 22 points higher than Seattle's.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds
New England ruled running back TreVeyon Henderson out this week with an ankle injury, and his anytime touchdown contract still shows a price from before that news; treat it as effectively frozen rather than a live number.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (Anytime TD: Yes 46%, No 55%): Stevenson projects as the clear lead back with Henderson out, and the market has him as the single most likely player on either roster to score.
- Jadarian Price (Anytime TD: Yes 42%, No 60%): Seattle's first-round rookie is priced as the second-most-likely scorer, taking over Kenneth Walker III's old workload after Walker signed with Kansas City in free agency.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Anytime TD: Yes 41%, No 60%): Coming off an Offensive Player of the Year season with 1,793 receiving yards, Smith-Njigba remains Seattle's clear top target.
- A.J. Brown (Anytime TD: Yes 37%, No 64%): Brown steps into New England's WR1 role after replacing the released Stefon Diggs, and he's priced as the Patriots' most likely scorer.
- George Holani (Anytime TD: Yes 31%, No 70%): Holani's price reflects real change-of-pace goal-line usage behind Price in Seattle's backfield.
- TreVeyon Henderson (Anytime TD: 28%, market frozen following his injury news): This price predates his being ruled out and should not be treated as live.
- AJ Barner (Anytime TD: Yes 25%, No 76%): Barner is a full practice participant this week and projects as a red-zone option at tight end for Seattle.
- Romeo Doubs (Anytime TD: Yes 25%, No 76%): Doubs joined New England in free agency this offseason and is priced as a rotational scoring threat.
- Hunter Henry (Anytime TD: Yes 24%, No 77%): Henry remains New England's primary tight end and a consistent red-zone target for Maye.
- Rashid Shaheed (Anytime TD: Yes 23%, No 78%): Shaheed stayed in Seattle this offseason and is priced as a big-play complement to Smith-Njigba and Kupp.
- Cooper Kupp (Anytime TD: Yes 22%, No 81%): Kupp's scoring price has slipped as Seattle's receiver room gets more crowded in year two of his deal.
- Drake Maye (Anytime TD: Yes 18%, No 83%): This is the same contract behind our Editor's Pick above, priced on Maye's rushing ability.
- Elijah Arroyo (Anytime TD: Yes 13%, No 88%): Seattle's second-year tight end is priced as a longer-shot scoring option behind Barner.
- Tory Horton (Anytime TD: Yes 12%, No 90%): Horton is questionable with a hamstring injury, which caps his scoring price this week.
- Emanuel Wilson (Anytime TD: Yes 11%, No 92%): Wilson rounds out Seattle's backfield depth behind Price and Holani.
- DeMario Douglas (Anytime TD: Yes 10%, No 91%): Douglas is priced as a depth scoring option in New England's receiver room.
- Sam Darnold (Anytime TD: Yes 9%, No 92%): Darnold's own rushing touchdown price is modest but not zero.
- Mack Hollins (Anytime TD: Yes 9%, No 92%): Hollins projects as a depth piece in New England's receiver rotation.
- Kyle Williams (Anytime TD: Yes 7%, No 94%): Williams is priced as the longest shot of New England's receiver room to find the end zone.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Player Props: Passing, Rushing & Receiving Yards
These player yardage props only show one active threshold per player on this board pull; if a fuller multi-threshold batch comes in later, this section can be rebuilt as a floor-to-ceiling table.
Passing Yards
| Quarterback | Threshold | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Over 225.5 | Yes 56% |
| Sam Darnold | Over 225.5 | Yes 52% |
Maye's passing yardage price sits four points above Darnold's on an identical threshold, our Editor's Pick above leans the other way on Darnold given the matchup against New England's retooling secondary.
Rushing Yards
- Jadarian Price (Over 49.5 rushing yards: Yes 57%, No 44%): Price carries the highest rushing yardage price on the board in his first career Week 1 start.
- Drake Maye (Over 24.5 rushing yards: Yes 53%, No 48%): Maye's rushing floor is priced above a coin flip, reinforcing his role as a real running threat at quarterback.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (Over 59.5 rushing yards: Yes 47%, No 54%): This is the same contract behind our Editor's Pick above.
- TreVeyon Henderson (Over 29.5 rushing yards: 47%, market frozen following his injury news): As with his touchdown price, this predates Henderson being ruled out.
- AJ Barner (Over 2.5 rushing yards: Yes 37%, No 99%): This is an unusual rushing threshold for a tight end and likely reflects a gadget-play market with thin liquidity.
Receiving Yards
- Hunter Henry (Over 29.5 receiving yards: Yes 61%, No 40%): Henry carries the highest receiving yardage price on the board, underscoring his role as Maye's security blanket over the middle.
- TreVeyon Henderson (Over 9.5 receiving yards: 57%, market frozen following his injury news): Another Henderson price that predates his being ruled out.
- A.J. Brown (Over 59.5 receiving yards: Yes 56%, No 47%): Brown's price reflects his new role as New England's clear top target.
- Rashid Shaheed (Over 29.5 receiving yards: Yes 54%, No 47%): Shaheed is priced as a reliable source of yardage in Seattle's rotation.
- AJ Barner (Over 24.5 receiving yards: Yes 54%, No 47%): Barner projects as a consistent underneath target for Darnold.
- DeMario Douglas (Over 19.5 receiving yards: Yes 53%, No 48%): Douglas is priced modestly above a coin flip in New England's rotation.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Over 79.5 receiving yards: Yes 51%, No 50%): Smith-Njigba's threshold is by far the highest on this list, and he's still priced above a coin flip to clear it.
- Cooper Kupp (Over 29.5 receiving yards: Yes 49%, No 52%): This is the same contract behind our Editor's Pick above.
- Romeo Doubs (Over 39.5 receiving yards: Yes 48%, No 53%): Doubs is priced just below a coin flip in his first game with New England.
- Jadarian Price (Over 9.5 receiving yards: Yes 45%, No 56%): Price's receiving floor is priced lower than his rushing number above.
- Mack Hollins (Over 14.5 receiving yards: Yes 40%, No 89%): Hollins is priced as a depth target behind New England's top three receivers.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market
New England's biggest offseason swing was releasing Stefon Diggs in March and replacing him with A.J. Brown, which explains why Brown carries New England's highest touchdown and receiving yardage prices on this board.
TreVeyon Henderson's ankle injury is the single biggest late-breaking factor here, and it's already visible in how much of Rhamondre Stevenson's usage and pricing has consolidated toward him as the clear lead back.
On Seattle's side, the market is still processing a full receiver room with Kupp, Smith-Njigba, Shaheed, and rookie Price all competing for touches, which is why none of them carry an overwhelming scoring price individually.
Seattle's defense also lost cornerback Riq Woolen to the Eagles in free agency, a real factor behind why New England's passing props are priced as competitively as they are for a road underdog. Anyone new to trading these contracts can read a full Polymarket review before getting started.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Seahawks vs. Patriots: Final Thoughts
This board has Seattle favored across nearly every major market, but New England's props around A.J. Brown, Drake Maye, and the team's touchdown total show real value for anyone searching for the best NFL predictions today on the underdog side.
The TreVeyon Henderson injury is the single most important piece of news heading into this NFL 2026 opener, and it's already reflected in how the market has consolidated rushing volume onto Rhamondre Stevenson.
For more context on how these contracts work before placing a trade, the Action Network prediction markets app hub is a useful resource, alongside our broader prediction markets coverage.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Prediction FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.
Who is favored in Seahawks vs. Patriots?
Seattle is favored on the moneyline at 62%, with New England priced as the road underdog at 39% in this Super Bowl LX rematch.
Is TreVeyon Henderson playing in this game?
No, New England ruled TreVeyon Henderson out for this game with an ankle injury that kept him out of practice all week, which hands Rhamondre Stevenson the clear lead-back role.
What is the point spread for Seahawks vs. Patriots?
Seattle is favored by 3.5 points, with the market pricing that spread at right around a coin flip.
What is the over/under for Seahawks vs. Patriots?
The full-game total is priced at 44.5 points, one of the closer-to-even markets on this entire board.
What is the best Editor's Pick on this board?
Our top-ranked pick by implied probability is Sam Darnold clearing 225.5 passing yards, priced at 52% against a New England secondary breaking in a new starting cornerback.
How do Polymarket contracts settle?
Each contract resolves to $1 per share if the outcome hits and $0 if it doesn't, so the current cents price is a direct read of that outcome's implied probability.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code ACTION?
Sign up through the promo link on this page, make a qualifying deposit, and the ACTION code applies automatically to unlock the trading bonus.
When does this NFL 2026 market resolve?
All game-level and player-prop contracts on this board resolve based on the final, official result of the Wednesday night game between the Seahawks and Patriots.
