The Big Brother Week 5 eviction odds are locked into a three-way board tonight, and both Kalshi and Polymarket traders have already picked a clear side. With Kamu Kirk sitting on the Power of Veto and choosing not to touch it, Haley Thogmartin, Chuk Anyanwu, and Barrett Pfeiffer head into the BB Blockbuster and live vote exactly where LaTrice "Lala" Verrett wanted them.
Big Brother Eviction Odds: Kalshi Week 5 Odds, Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi runs its Big Brother elimination market as a set of event contracts, one per nominee, each priced between 1¢ and 99¢. That price maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" contract settles at $1.00 if that houseguest is evicted and $0 if they survive the vote.
This market resolves tonight, Thursday, August 13, when the live eviction episode airs, and Julie Chen Moonves reads the votes. The board is unusually clean heading into air: Kamu's decision not to use the Veto means nominations are frozen, and the only variable left is tonight's BB Blockbuster, which lets one of the three nominees save themselves before the vote.
Haley Thogmartin: The Market's Clear Favorite
Haley sits comfortably atop this board, and the case is straightforward. Lala named her as the primary target from the moment nominations went up, and nothing that has happened since, including Kamu's Veto decision, has changed that read.
Haley's own alliance has also started to crack under her. Feed watchers have noted Taylor Brown pushing hard against her behind the scenes, and with Kamu unwilling to spend his Veto to save her, Haley is left leaning almost entirely on tonight's Blockbuster to survive.
Chuk Anyanwu: The House's Backup Plan
Chuk trades a distant second, priced as the fallback if Haley finds a way off the block. Lala has framed him publicly as collateral rather than the true target, but the numbers still treat him as live.
The wrinkle here is Chuk himself. Reports out of the house suggest he has floated the idea of throwing tonight's Blockbuster if he believes it improves his position against Barrett in a final head-to-head, a gamble that traders appear to be pricing as unlikely but not impossible.
- Barrett Pfeiffer: Barrett is the market's long-shot pawn, and the board reflects it. Lala has repeatedly signaled he was never her real target, and with two bigger threats sitting beside him, the contracts treat his eviction as close to off the table.
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Big Brother Polymarket Odds: Week 5 Eviction, Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket structures its Big Brother eviction market the same way: a "Yes" or "No" contract for each nominee, priced in cents, with the price reflecting the crowd's live estimate of who goes home. Traders can buy or sell either side at any point before the market closes.
Like the Kalshi board, this market settles tonight when the eviction vote is read on the live episode. Total trading volume has been noticeably heavier on Haley's contract than on either of her fellow nominees, a sign of just how much attention her position has drawn since the block was set.
Haley Thogmartin: Where the Volume Is
Haley is the Polymarket favorite by a wide margin, mirroring the Kalshi board almost exactly. The two exchanges are essentially telling the same story: Lala's target from day one is still the target, Veto or no Veto.
What stands out on Polymarket specifically is the volume gap. Haley's contract has drawn several times the trading activity of Barrett's or Chuk's, suggesting the broader trading public sees this as a settled question rather than a genuine toss-up.
Chuk Anyanwu: The Live Second Option
Chuk again lands a clear second on Polymarket, priced well behind Haley but well ahead of Barrett. The Blockbuster is the swing factor traders are watching here too: if Chuk wins it and self-saves, his own contract effectively resolves "No" while reshuffling the vote between Haley and Barrett.
- Barrett Pfeiffer: Barrett's contract has actually seen one of the sharper single-day moves on the board, but it is moving further away from a "Yes," not toward one. The market continues to treat him as a pawn who is safe unless something unexpected happens tonight.
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on Big Brother Week 5 Eviction Odds
The two boards agree almost completely on shape: Haley is the clear favorite, Chuk is a distant second, and Barrett is priced as a near lock to survive. That kind of alignment across two independently traded markets is a strong signal that the underlying house intel is solid, not just feed-watcher speculation.
Where they diverge is in volume and volatility rather than direction. Polymarket's board has shown sharper single-day swings on Barrett's contract, while Kalshi's pricing has moved in smaller, steadier steps across all three names.
That gap likely comes down to trader base and liquidity rather than any disagreement about the outcome. Kalshi's regulated, US-based order book tends to move more conservatively, while Polymarket's global, crypto-funded liquidity can swing harder on the same news.
Big Brother Odds Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The single biggest event shaping both boards this week was Kamu's decision not to use the Power of Veto, the first time that has happened all season. That single choice froze the nominations and effectively told both markets there would be no last-minute swap to price around.
Before that, the nomination story itself moved the needle. Lala originally considered a plan built around Barrett, Drew Campbell, and Kamu, only to pivot straight to Haley and Chuk after Kamu himself argued that keeping them off the block long enough to win a Veto was too risky for the house's new majority.
Both markets are now effectively pricing tonight's BB Blockbuster as the last real swing event. Whoever wins it removes themselves from consideration entirely, which is why Chuk's contract carries more uncertainty than a simple "second favorite" label would suggest.
Beyond the Blockbuster, the wildcard both boards are watching is Rick Devens's Diamond Power of Veto, reportedly still in his back pocket and unused. It has no bearing on this week's frozen nominations, but traders on both platforms are aware it could reshape the house's power structure heading into Week 6.
How to Trade Big Brother Odds on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Trade $25, Get up to $500!
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Big Brother Week 5 Eviction Odds: Final Thoughts
Kalshi and Polymarket are telling the same story from two different order books: Haley Thogmartin is the house's target and the market's favorite, Chuk is a real but distant second, and Barrett remains priced as the pawn he was always meant to be.
The one thing neither exchange can price with certainty is tonight's BB Blockbuster. Until that competition plays out live, both boards are really betting on who survives one more twist before the vote is finally read.
Big Brother Odds FAQs
What are the current Big Brother odds for Week 5 eviction on Kalshi?
Kalshi prices a live event contract for each Week 5 nominee, Haley Thogmartin, Chuk Anyanwu, and Barrett Pfeiffer, with Haley trading as the clear favorite to be evicted. Because prices shift constantly, use the live widget embedded above for the current numbers.
What are the Big Brother odds for Week 5 eviction on Polymarket?
Polymarket runs the same three-way market and, as of the latest trading, agrees with Kalshi on the overall shape of the board: Haley as the favorite, Chuk a distant second, and Barrett a long shot.
When does the Big Brother Week 5 eviction market resolve?
Both markets resolve tonight, Thursday, August 13, when the live eviction episode airs on CBS, and the vote is read on air.
Why didn't Kamu use the Power of Veto on Big Brother 28?
Kamu won the Week 5 Veto but chose not to use it, the first time that has happened all season, leaving Haley, Chuk, and Barrett exactly where LaTrice "Lala" Verrett put them at nominations.
What is the BB Blockbuster and how does it affect tonight's Big Brother odds?
The BB Blockbuster is a live competition among the three nominees held on eviction night. Whoever wins it removes themselves from the block entirely, which is why both Kalshi and Polymarket are still treating tonight's board as unsettled.
Is Kalshi or Polymarket better for trading Big Brother odds?
Both platforms offer live, real-money markets on the same outcome. Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange with steadier pricing, while Polymarket often sees sharper swings tied to its global trading base. Reviewing both boards side by side is the best way to spot any pricing gaps.
Who is the target on Big Brother Season 28 this week?
Haley Thogmartin has been LaTrice's primary target since nominations were announced, with Chukwudi "Chuk" Anyanwu as the backup option if Haley finds a way off the block.
