NFL Prop Bets Today | Bills vs. Vikings Prediction: Best NFL Player Props, Anytime TD Scorer (MNF Best Bets)

Our Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is ready to be claimed ahead on Monday Night Football. Look no further for NFL prop bets today than the Bills vs. Vikings prediction markets listed below.

• Bills (6-1): Buffalo has won three straight and ranks first in the NFL in EPA per play. However, its defense ranks 27th in opponent EPA per play.
• Vikings (6-1): Minnesota suffered its first loss of the season to the Lions last week. Carson Wentz will start at quarterback with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring strain.

Here are my best NFL player props for MNF, all available on Polymarket, one of the best prediction markets:

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Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Bills vs Vikings Prediction on Polymarket

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Best Passing Yards Prop Today: Josh Allen 250+ Passing Yards (No)

Buffalo leads the league in EPA per play, but Minnesota is first in opponent EPA per play and owns the NFL's best run defense.

Kalshi traders also trimmed the total to 44.5 after Carson Wentz replaced Kyler Murray, which points toward a slower game with fewer possessions.

Allen has done plenty of damage as a runner this season, with 270 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground, so the Bills do not need him to throw for volume to win.

Polymarket's board shows No at 63%, but the ticket fills at that higher average price, so we use it in the table. The risk is a stuffed ground game forcing Buffalo into a pass-heavy script.

I bought No at an average price of 69.94¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $139.01 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $139.01 (a profit of $39.01)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.39x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Receptions Prop Today: Justin Jefferson 6+ Receptions (Yes)

With Murray out, Minnesota turns to Wentz, and the Vikings enter the week ranked 29th in total offense at 279.4 yards per game. When an offense is that thin, the quarterback tends to lean on his best receiver, and Jefferson is that player.

Minnesota is also a 3.5-point underdog at home, and trailing teams throw more. Six catches is a high bar, which is why it carries a premium price, but Jefferson's target volume gives him a clear path to get there.

I bought Yes at an average price of 64.99¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $148.92 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $148.92 (a profit of $48.92)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.49x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Interceptions Prop Today: Carson Wentz 1+ Interceptions Thrown (Yes)

Wentz has not thrown an interception this season in limited action, completing 59% of his passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns. This start is a much bigger test, against the league's top offense by EPA per play.

Minnesota committed a league-high 30 turnovers in 2025, and Wentz went 2-3 as a starter last year. A backup quarterback chasing a Buffalo lead is exactly the script that produces mistakes.

I bought Yes at an average price of 59¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $163.13 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $163.13 (a profit of $63.13)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.63x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Today: Josh Allen 1+ Touchdowns (Yes)

Allen is the significant MVP favorite and a legitimate goal-line weapon, with nine touchdowns on the ground this season. When Buffalo drives stall inside the 10, his legs are often the best option.

Minnesota's run defense is elite between the tackles, which is exactly why Allen's mobility matters near the end zone. This is the first of three anytime TD scorer predictions on our board.

I bought Yes at an average price of 58¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $165.79 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $165.79 (a profit of $65.79)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.66x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Today: James Cook III 1+ Touchdowns (Yes)

Buffalo ran for a league-high 30 rushing touchdowns in 2025, and Cook is the lead back in that system. He has a clear path to a short-yardage score even against a stingy front.

The tradeoff is that Minnesota has the NFL's best run defense, so scores may come on short fields or through the air. Cook's receiving role helps, and at 58% he is priced almost identically to Allen.

I bought Yes at an average price of 57.95¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $165.94 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $165.94 (a profit of $65.94)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.66x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Rushing Attempts Prop Today: Jordan Mason 12+ Rushing Attempts (Yes)

Minnesota ranks 29th in total offense and 27th in scoring at 20 points per game. With Wentz under center, the Vikings are likely to lean on the ground game to keep drives manageable and shorten the game.

Twelve carries is a volume threshold rather than a yardage one, so it depends less on how efficiently Mason runs against Buffalo. The risk is game script, since an early Bills lead would pull Minnesota away from the run.

I bought Yes at an average price of 55.12¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $174.01 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $174.01 (a profit of $74.01)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.74x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Receiving Yards Prop Today: Justin Jefferson 80+ Receiving Yards (Yes)

Jefferson can reach 80 yards on a handful of big plays, and Buffalo ranks 27th in opponent EPA per play. The Bills' defensive ranking is the central reason to back the over here.

Wentz adds some uncertainty to the connection, and Minnesota's low-ranked offense limits the number of snaps. Polymarket's board shows Yes at 51%, but the ticket fills at that higher average price, so I use it in the table.

I bought Yes at an average price of 54.98¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $174.43 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $174.43 (a profit of $74.43)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.74x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Rushing Yards Prop Today: James Cook III 80+ Rushing Yards (No)

This is a direct bet on Minnesota's defense. The Vikings have the NFL's best run defense, and 80 rushing yards is a meaningful hurdle against it.

Buffalo also has Allen and the passing game to move the ball, which can limit Cook's carries even if the Bills control the game. This pairs cleanly with the Cook touchdown pick above, since he can score without getting to 80 yards.

I bought No at an average price of 52.43¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $182.49 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $182.49 (a profit of $82.49)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 1.82x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Receptions Prop Today: Dawson Knox 2+ Receptions (Yes)

Two catches is a low bar for a tight end on an offense that ranks first in EPA per play. Knox does not need big yardage for this to hit, which fits with our No on Allen's 250-yard line.

With receivers DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer listed as questionable entering this constest, any absence would raise his target share.

Polymarket's board shows Yes at 38%, but the ticket fills at that higher average price, so we use it in the table. At 40%, the market is discounting the chance Knox is only a minor piece of the plan.

I bought Yes at an average price of 39.97¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $236.67 if it settles in my favor.

• If it hits: Return of $236.67 (a profit of $136.67)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 2.37x payout on the $100 stake.

Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Today: T.J. Hockenson 1+ Touchdowns (Yes)

Hockenson is the longest shot on our board and the biggest potential payout. A tight end is a natural red-zone target for a quarterback stepping in on short notice, and anytime TD scorer predictions at this price reward that kind of role.

Minnesota ranks 27th in scoring, so touchdown chances will be scarce, and that scarcity is reflected in the 35% price. This is the high-variance ticket on the card.

We bought Yes at an average price of 34.9¢ with a $100 amount, and the ticket shows a payout of $269.85 if it settles in our favor.

• If it hits: Return of $269.85 (a profit of $169.85)
• If it misses: Full loss of the $100 stake

That works out to roughly a 2.70x payout on the $100 stake.

What's Moving the Market

The biggest move came at quarterback. Kyler Murray's hamstring strain opened the door for Carson Wentz, and Polymarket traders shifted from Bills -3 with a total of 46.5 earlier in the week to Bills -3.5 with the total down to 44.5.

That shift matters for my NFL prop bets today. Wentz's start adds uncertainty to every Vikings passing prop, while Buffalo's offense, first in EPA per play, keeps its touchdown props priced as favorites.

Prediction markets reprice quickly when injury news breaks, so check the board before kickoff for any change to Buffalo's questionable players or Minnesota's offensive line. My MNF best bets are built around the matchup as it stands now.

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• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
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Final Thoughts on the Best NFL Player Props for Bills vs Vikings

Tonight sets up as an unstoppable force against an immovable object, with Buffalo's top-ranked offense meeting Minnesota's top-ranked defense.

My NFL prop bets today lean on that tension, with fewer yards on the ground and through the air for Allen and Cook, but real touchdown chances near the goal line.

With Wentz starting, the best NFL player props on the board carry real variance, so check final injury news before locking anything in.

My anytime TD scorer predictions are the most exposed to that variance, and the receiving and rushing volume picks are the steadier tickets. My Bills vs Vikings prediction and MNF best bets are on the board now on Polymarket.

FAQs

What are the best NFL prop bets today for Bills vs Vikings?

My top NFL prop bets today include Josh Allen under 250 passing yards, Justin Jefferson over 5.5 receptions, Carson Wentz to throw an interception, and anytime touchdown scorers Josh Allen, James Cook III and T.J. Hockenson, all priced on Polymarket.

What are the best NFL player props for Monday Night Football?

The best NFL player props for this game center on Minnesota's top-ranked defense against Buffalo's top-ranked offense. That favors fewer rushing yards for James Cook III, plus volume plays like Jordan Mason's carries and Dawson Knox's receptions.

Who are the best anytime TD scorer predictions for Bills vs Vikings?

My anytime TD scorer predictions are Josh Allen, James Cook III and T.J. Hockenson. Allen and Cook are priced as the most likely scorers, while Hockenson offers the biggest payout if he finds the end zone.

What are the top MNF best bets on Polymarket for this game?

My MNF best bets combine Buffalo's goal-line touchdown props with a No on Josh Allen's 250-yard passing line and a No on James Cook III's 80-yard rushing line, while backing Vikings volume props with Carson Wentz starting.

Who is starting at quarterback for the Vikings on Monday night?

Carson Wentz will start for Minnesota. Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring strain, and Max Brosmer is the backup.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code for Bills vs Vikings?

Sign up for a Polymarket account through the link in this article, make a qualifying deposit, and enter the Polymarket promo code during registration. Then find the NFL tab and buy Yes or No contracts on the props you like.

How do Polymarket prices work for NFL player props?

Each price represents the market's implied probability. A Yes contract at 58% costs about 58 cents per share and pays out in full if the prop hits, while the matching No contract is the other side of that same market.