Dancing with the Stars Grammy Night airs tonight, Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, and the dance-offs return. Tatyana Ali and Maura Higgins are the two couples most likely to be eliminated on both Kalshi and Polymarket, but the prediction market exchanges disagree on which one is the favorite.
Judges' scores post during the live show, so these prices reflect last week's results and this week's dance-off matchups.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
- Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman: eliminated Night 1 of the premiere (Sept. 15)
- Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills: eliminated Night 2 of the premiere (Sept. 16)
- Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten: eliminated Viral Hits Night (Sept. 22)
- Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart: eliminated Yacht Rock Night (Sept. 29)
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong: eliminated Mariah Carey Night (Oct. 6)
- Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson: eliminated Super Bowl Night (Oct. 13)
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess and Jackson Olson & Emma Slater: double elimination on Horror Movie Night (Oct. 27)
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa: eliminated Disney Night (Nov. 2)
DWTS Week 9 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
| Couple | Pick | Winnings on a $100 Bet | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (45¢) | $122.22 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Eliminated Yes (44¢) | $127.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Eliminated Yes (8¢) | $1,150.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Eliminated Yes (6¢) | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Eliminated Yes (6¢) | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Eliminated Yes (3¢) | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Eliminated Yes (2¢) | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price doubles as the market's implied probability. A "Yes" contract on a couple pays $1 if they are eliminated on the live results show, and this market has drawn more than $7.8 million in volume.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (45%, Yes 45¢ / No 56¢, +6 pts)
Ali is Kalshi's favorite to go home, with Yes at 45¢, implying a 45% probability. Her Weeks 6 and 7 scores of 32 and 28 totaled 60, the lowest combined mark among the seven remaining couples.
She dances a tango to "Boom Boom Pow" and meets Jenna Dewan in a cha-cha dance-off. Dewan earned a perfect 40 last week, which is a tough matchup.
Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (44%, Yes 44¢ / No 57¢, -3 pts)
Higgins is priced at 44¢, a 44% implied probability, after slipping 3 points. She landed in the bottom two on Disney Night alongside Stiles and posted the week's lowest two-dance total at 68 out of 80.
Tonight she has an Argentine tango to "Thong Song" and a cha-cha dance-off against Connor Wood.
Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (8%, Yes 8¢ / No 93¢, +1 pt)
Wood is at 8¢, an 8% implied probability. He scored 72 across Disney Night and brings an Argentine tango to "SexyBack."
Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (6%, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢, -1 pt)
Glenn is at 6¢, a 6% implied probability. She scored 70 on Disney Night and opens with a paso doble to "Bring Me to Life," then faces Ezra Frech in a rumba dance-off.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (6%, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢, -1 pt)
Dewan is also at 6¢, or 6%. She shared the top of last week's leaderboard with two perfect 40s and dances a jazz routine to "All for You" tonight.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (2%, -3 pts): Shum earned immunity from the dance-offs with the season's highest cumulative score, and his Yes contract sits at 3¢.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (<1%): Frech scored 77 on Disney Night and dances an Argentine tango to "Crazy in Love (The Remix)."
- None (2%, +1 pt): Kalshi also lists a contract for a night with no elimination.
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DWTS Week 9 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
| Couple | Pick | Winnings on a $100 Bet | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Eliminated Yes (46¢) | $117.39 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (43¢) | $132.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Eliminated Yes (9¢) | $1,011.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Eliminated Yes (7.5¢) | $1,233.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Eliminated Yes (6.6¢) | $1,415.15 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Eliminated Yes (2.5¢) | $3,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Eliminated Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's "Week 9 Eliminations" market works the same way, with each couple's "Yes" share priced from 1¢ to 99¢ and paying $1 if that couple goes home. The headline percentage sits slightly below the Yes buy price because of the spread.
Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (44%, Yes 46¢ / No 58¢, -14 pts)
Higgins is Polymarket's favorite to go home, with Yes at 46¢ and a displayed probability of 44%. That is still a 14-point drop, the largest move on either board.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (43%, Yes 43¢ / No 58¢, +9 pts)
Ali is priced at 43¢, a 43% implied probability, and is up 9 points. She sits just one point behind Higgins in the displayed probability.
Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (7%, Yes 9¢ / No 95¢)
Wood shows 7% with Yes at 9¢, the widest gap between display and buy price on the board. His cha-cha dance-off against Higgins gives him a path to matter in this market.
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (6%, -4 pts): Dewan's Yes sits at 7.5¢ after back-to-back perfect 40s.
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (6%): Glenn's Yes is 6.6¢ ahead of her paso doble and rumba dance-off.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (2%, -2 pts): Shum's immunity keeps his Yes at 2.5¢.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (1%, -1 pt): Frech's Yes is 1.0¢, the cheapest on the board.
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on DWTS Week 9
| Couple | Kalshi Yes | Polymarket Yes | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | 45¢ | 43¢ | Kalshi +2¢ |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | 44¢ | 46¢ | Polymarket +2¢ |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | 8¢ | 9¢ | Polymarket +1¢ |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | 6¢ | 7.5¢ | Polymarket +1.5¢ |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | 6¢ | 6.6¢ | Polymarket +0.6¢ |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | 3¢ | 2.5¢ | Kalshi +0.5¢ |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | 2¢ | 1.0¢ | Kalshi +1¢ |
The exchanges agree on the shape of the board. Ali and Higgins are both priced between 43¢ and 46¢, Wood is a distant third at 7% to 8%, and Shum and Frech sit at the bottom.
The favorite is where they split. Kalshi has Ali ahead at 45¢ to 44¢, while Polymarket has Higgins ahead at 46¢ to 43¢, and Polymarket also prices Dewan (7.5¢ vs. 6¢) and Wood (9¢ vs. 8¢) slightly higher.
These gaps are small, and liquidity is the likely reason. Kalshi's market has more than $7.8 million in volume, while individual Polymarket contracts show between $169 and $3,789, so a thin board can swing harder. That fits Polymarket's 14-point move on Higgins against Kalshi's 3, though the screenshots don't show the time window behind each figure.
DWTS Week 9 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges moved in the same direction this week. Ali gained 6 points on Kalshi and 9 on Polymarket, while Higgins fell 3 and 14.
The dance-offs are the main variable. Ali faces Dewan, who scored 80 out of 80 last week, while Higgins faces Wood, who out-scored her 72 to 68. Higgins' bottom-two finish on Disney Night keeps her in play, since eliminations combine judges' scores with viewer votes.
Shum's immunity explains his low price on both boards. Beyond the top two, no couple tops 9¢, so the market sees this as a two-couple race.
Tonight's scores and dance-off results could reprice the board before the results are read. A weak score for either Ali or Higgins could push one contract well past 50%.
How to Trade DWTS Week 9 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
