The Republican presidential candidates 2028 race has opened up since the midterms, with JD Vance still leading Polymarket and Kalshi while Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis chase him.
Democrats won the House and Senate on November 3, and the presidential election 2028 markets are now repricing a Republican field that has to decide how close to stay to Donald Trump.
Vance sits at 33¢ on Polymarket and 34¢ on Kalshi, while DeSantis has jumped to 18¢ and 17¢ from under 5¢ the weekend before the midterms.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Republican presidential candidates 2028 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | JD Vance | YES (33¢) | $284.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | JD Vance | YES (34¢) | $281.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Marco Rubio | YES (18¢) | $525.38 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Marco Rubio | YES (22¢) | $423.18 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ron DeSantis | YES (17¢) | $555.88 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Ron DeSantis | YES (18¢) | $515.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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Republican Presidential Candidates 2028 on Polymarket: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's 2028 Republican nominee board lists each potential candidate as a Yes/No contract priced from 1¢ to 99¢, so every price maps directly to an implied probability.
A "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that person wins and accepts the Republican presidential nomination and $0 if anyone else does, and traders can buy or sell at any point before the nomination is decided.
Polymarket quotes both sides for every name in this piece except Rand Paul, whose No side is unavailable on the board, so none of the No prices below are derived.
JD Vance (YES 33¢ / NO 68¢)
JD Vance is still the favorite at 33¢, a 33% implied probability, but the midterms cost him ground, since he traded near 38¢ on Polymarket the weekend before Election Day.
Ohio, his home state, elected Democrat Amy Acton governor over Vivek Ramaswamy even after Vance campaigned for the Republican, and Vance publicly blamed the Iran war for the party's losses.
Trump said he approved of that post but told reporters he doesn't know who will run in 2028, adding that Vance may not. A New York Times/Siena poll of Republican primary voters from October 12-19 had Vance at 33% to Rubio's 23%, with 26% undecided.
Marco Rubio (YES 22¢ / NO 79¢)
Marco Rubio is priced at 22¢, 11¢ behind Vance, and his case got easier after the midterms because he stayed off most of the campaign trail and has avoided much of the blame for the Iran war.
Florida stayed red, with Byron Donalds winning the governor's race and Ashley Moody holding her Senate seat, and Rubio told The New York Times that working for Trump through the end of his term has always been his plan after reports he might leave the administration.
Rubio has also said he would defer to Vance, so his price depends on whether the vice president actually runs.
Ron DeSantis (YES 18¢ / NO 83¢)
Ron DeSantis is the biggest mover on the board at 18¢, up from under 5¢ before the midterms, as the term-limited Florida governor distances himself from both Trump and congressional Republicans.
The Washington Post reported on November 6 that DeSantis is preparing a 2028 run, citing three people briefed on his plans, and he denied it, saying the report was fabricated.
He has called the Iran war a drag on Republican candidates and described the midterm results as close to an extinction-level event for the party, and he leaves office in January.
More Republican Presidential Candidates on Polymarket
Eleven more names trade on Polymarket's board, all at 9¢ or lower, and two of them, Donald Trump and Elon Musk, are not constitutionally eligible to be president.
- John McEntee (YES 9¢ / NO 92¢, -22 pts): The former Trump White House aide, who co-founded the conservative dating app The Right Stuff and built a big TikTok following, was flagged by Polymarket as an emerging contender at 4% on November 8, and the price has since swung hard, with the board showing a 22-point drop.
- Tucker Carlson (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢): Carlson, who said he would not vote for Republicans this November, has told Alex Jones he doesn't want to run, and a MAGA push to draft him is a third-party effort that would not count toward a Republican nomination contract.
- Donald Trump (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢): Trump is barred by the 22nd Amendment, which says no person can be elected president more than twice, and he has acknowledged he is not allowed to run again, so this price is a bet on a constitutional change or a loophole.
- Glenn Youngkin (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢): The former Virginia governor is a regular on lists of potential 2028 hopefuls, usually alongside Georgia's Brian Kemp, and his 3¢ price is a bet on a field that is still wide open.
- Ted Cruz (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢): Cruz said the 2028 conversation would start after the midterms, and Democrat James Talarico's Senate win in his home state on November 3 is now part of that backdrop.
- Thomas Massie (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢): Massie lost his May primary to a Trump-backed challenger, then filed 2028 paperwork with the FEC and has declined to rule out a presidential run.
- Donald Trump Jr. (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): The president's eldest son has left the door open to a run after his father leaves office, saying that maybe one day the calling will be there.
- Elon Musk (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): Musk is not eligible: the Constitution requires a natural-born citizen, and he was born in Pretoria, South Africa and naturalized in 2002, a point he has acknowledged himself.
- Marjorie Taylor Greene (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): Greene resigned from Congress after a public break with Trump, has said she doesn't want to run in 2028, and has urged Tucker Carlson to run instead.
- Vivek Ramaswamy (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): Ramaswamy lost the Ohio governor's race to Democrat Amy Acton on November 3, even with Vance campaigning for him.
- Rand Paul (YES 1¢): Paul's Kentucky Senate seat is up in 2028, so he has a re-election decision to make alongside any presidential one, and Polymarket doesn't quote a No side for him on the board.
Republican Presidential Candidates 2028 on Kalshi: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same 2028 Republican nomination field as a regulated event contract, with Yes and No both tradable on every line and prices quoted to a tenth of a cent.
The market resolves to whichever person wins the Republican presidential nomination, and Kalshi's displayed Chance percentage can differ slightly from the YES price, so this piece uses the YES price as the headline number.
Kalshi's top three matches Polymarket's, and its board adds Brian Kemp, Nikki Haley and Ivanka Trump, while Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and Rand Paul appear only on the Polymarket board used for this piece.
JD Vance (YES 34¢ / NO 67¢, +1 pts)
Kalshi has Vance a cent above Polymarket at 34¢, a 34% implied probability, and the board shows him up 1 point on the latest move.
That follows a rough stretch, since Vance dipped to about 27¢ on Kalshi the morning after the midterms, down from 35¢ to 36¢ before Election Day.
A YouGov/Economist poll from October 23-26 found that 41% of registered voters viewed him favorably and 53% unfavorably, which gives primary rivals an electability argument.
Marco Rubio (YES 18¢ / NO 83¢, -3 pts)
Marco Rubio is the one top-three name Kalshi prices well below Polymarket, with YES at 18¢ against 22¢ there, and his board figure is down 3 points on the latest move.
The case for him is electoral: Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates 60% to 35% in NBC News exit polls, and Rubio's Cuban American background and Spanish fluency are his pitch for winning some of them back.
His risk is that he was part of the administration's decision to go to war, even if Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have taken most of the blame.
Ron DeSantis (YES 17¢ / NO 84¢)
Ron DeSantis trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, a cent below Polymarket, and the climb to get there was steep, since he sat under 5¢ before the midterms and jumped about 14.6 points on November 4.
His appeal is the break with the rest of the party, and Florida was one of the few conservative strongholds to hold firm on November 3.
The open question, according to the Post, is whether donors will fund him again after his 2024 campaign.
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More Republican Presidential Candidates on Kalshi
Eleven more names trade on Kalshi's board, all at 5¢ or lower, and Donald Trump is the one among them who is barred from another term.
- John McEntee (YES 5¢ / NO 95.1¢, +1.4 pts): Kalshi prices the former Trump aide and TikTok personality at 5¢, 4¢ below Polymarket, and the board shows a 1.4-point gain.
- Tucker Carlson (YES 3.5¢ / NO 96.6¢, +0.1 pts): Carlson is a half cent below Polymarket's 4¢ and up 0.1 points, and any draft-Tucker campaign would have to run outside the party.
- Glenn Youngkin (YES 2.9¢ / NO 97.2¢, +0.3 pts): The former Virginia governor trades just under Polymarket's 3¢ and is up 0.3 points.
- Brian Kemp (YES 2.7¢ / NO 97.4¢, +0.6 pts): Kemp appears on Kalshi but not on the Polymarket board used here, and the Washington Post reported on November 9 that the term-limited Georgia governor is weighing a bid and could also run for Senate in 2028, according to a person with knowledge of his thinking.
- Ted Cruz (YES 2.7¢ / NO 97.4¢): Cruz, the runner-up to Trump in the 2016 primary, described the midterms as a blue tsunami, and Kalshi prices him 0.3¢ below Polymarket.
- Thomas Massie (YES 2.5¢ / NO 97.6¢, +0.3 pts): Massie, who is leaving Congress after losing his primary, trades a half cent below Polymarket's 3¢ and is up 0.3 points.
- Donald Trump (YES 1.6¢ / NO 98.5¢): Kalshi prices Trump at 1.6¢, about half of Polymarket's 3¢, but the 22nd Amendment still bars him from being elected a third time, and House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he sees no path to one.
- Nikki Haley (YES 1.2¢ / NO 99¢, +0.1 pts): Haley, the last challenger standing against Trump in the 2024 primary, appears on Kalshi but not on the Polymarket board used here.
- Donald Trump Jr. (YES 1.2¢ / NO 99¢): Kalshi has Trump Jr. 0.8¢ below Polymarket's 2¢, with no movement figure shown.
- Marjorie Taylor Greene (YES 1.1¢ / NO 99¢, -0.1 pts): Greene is one of only two names with a down move on Kalshi's board, the other being Rubio, after resigning from Congress following her break with Trump.
- Ivanka Trump (YES 0.9¢ / NO 99.3¢, +0.4 pts): Trump's daughter is the longest shot on Kalshi's board here at 0.9¢, though her 0.4-point gain is the third-largest among names outside the top three.
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Republican Presidential Candidates 2028
The two boards agree on the order of the top three. Vance sits at YES 33¢ on Polymarket and YES 34¢ on Kalshi, while DeSantis is at YES 18¢ and YES 17¢, respectively.
Rubio is where they split. Polymarket has him at YES 22¢ and Kalshi at YES 18¢, a 4¢ gap that is the widest among the top three and large enough to look like a real disagreement rather than noise.
The long tail has its own gaps. John McEntee is at YES 9¢ on Polymarket and YES 5¢ on Kalshi, and Donald Trump is at YES 3¢ versus YES 1.6¢, even though the 22nd Amendment bars him from being elected again.
Part of every small gap is rounding, since Polymarket's board here quotes whole cents and Kalshi quotes tenths, and each board used here shows names the other doesn't: Musk, Ramaswamy and Paul on Polymarket, and Kemp, Haley and Ivanka Trump on Kalshi.
Presidential Election 2028 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The midterms reset the Republican presidential candidates 2028 board. Vance slipped from about 38¢ to 33¢ on Polymarket, DeSantis jumped from under 5¢ to 18¢, and Rubio sits at 22¢ on Polymarket and 18¢ on Kalshi, close to the roughly 20¢ he showed on both exchanges on November 1.
That is the pattern of traders trimming a favorite rather than abandoning him, and it leaves Vance, Rubio and DeSantis as the only three names above 10¢ on either exchange.
The primary electorate hasn't moved as far as the general electorate. The Times/Siena poll found that 63% of Republicans wanted a continuation of Trump's policies, while more than 80% of independents wanted the party to move away from him, which is the tension every candidate on this board has to solve.
Texas adds another wrinkle for the presidential election 2028, since Democrat James Talarico won the Senate race there on November 3 and one political scientist told Newsweek it is virtually impossible for a Republican to win the presidency without the state.
The next catalysts are the sit-down Vance has said he will have with Trump about 2028, whether Rubio leaves the State Department, DeSantis leaving the governor's mansion in January, and decisions from Kemp, Cruz and Massie.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | JD Vance | YES (33¢) | $284.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | JD Vance | YES (34¢) | $281.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Marco Rubio | YES (18¢) | $525.38 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Marco Rubio | YES (22¢) | $423.18 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ron DeSantis | YES (17¢) | $555.88 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Ron DeSantis | YES (18¢) | $515.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
How to Trade the Presidential Election 2028 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Republican Presidential Candidates 2028: Final Thoughts
This is a front-runner market that just lost some of its confidence. Vance still leads at 33¢ and 34¢, but with Rubio at 22¢ and 18¢ and DeSantis at 18¢ and 17¢, the Republican presidential candidates 2028 field now has three live names instead of one.
Watch the Rubio gap between the exchanges and whether DeSantis can hold his post-midterm gain, because both will say more about the presidential election 2028 than any of the long-tail prices.
Republican Presidential Candidates 2028 FAQs
Who are the top Republican presidential candidates 2028 on Polymarket and Kalshi?
JD Vance leads at 33¢ on Polymarket and 34¢ on Kalshi, followed by Marco Rubio at 22¢ and 18¢ and Ron DeSantis at 18¢ and 17¢.
Why did JD Vance's odds fall after the midterms?
Democrats won the House and Senate, Vance's home state of Ohio elected a Democratic governor, and Vance publicly blamed the Iran war for the losses, so traders trimmed his price from about 38¢ to 33¢ on Polymarket.
Why is Ron DeSantis rising in the 2028 Republican nominee market?
The Washington Post reported on November 6 that DeSantis is preparing a run, which he denied, and Florida stayed Republican in the midterms. He rose from under 5¢ to 18¢ on Polymarket.
Is Marco Rubio running for president in 2028?
Rubio has not announced a campaign. He told The New York Times that working for Trump until the end of his term has always been his plan, and he has said he would defer to Vance.
Can Donald Trump or Elon Musk run in the presidential election 2028?
No. The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice, which rules out Trump, and the Constitution requires a natural-born citizen, which rules out Musk, who was born in South Africa.
When is the presidential election 2028?
Election Day for the presidential election 2028 is November 7, 2028, and the Republican nomination will be decided in the primaries before then.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Republican nominee market?
Prices are within a cent on Vance and DeSantis, but Polymarket has Rubio at 22¢ against 18¢ on Kalshi. Polymarket lists Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and Rand Paul on the board used here, while Kalshi adds Brian Kemp, Nikki Haley and Ivanka Trump.
How does a Republican nominee contract settle?
A Yes share pays $1.00 if that person wins and accepts the Republican presidential nomination and $0 if anyone else does.
How do I trade the Republican presidential candidates 2028 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the candidate you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the nomination is decided.
