Tonight's Champions Classic games and a ranked showdown in Lubbock set the scene for an exciting night to trade college basketball predictions on Kalshi. Register with our Kalshi promo code (ACTION55) to trade on Duke vs. Michigan State, Illinois vs. Texas Tech, and Kansas vs. Kentucky.
- Every team in the games I cover enters 2-0, so these lines lean on preseason projections more than on a deep sample of results.
- The spreads on the board run from 2.5 to 6.5 points and the totals from 147.5 to 161.5, so none of these markets is priced as a runaway mismatch.
Here is a snapshot of my NCAAB predictions, with every trade priced on Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets for college hoops.
| 🏀 Game | 🏷️ Pick: Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE vs. MSU | Under 147.5 (Over NO): No | 75¢ | $133.52 | Trade Now! |
| DUKE vs. MSU | DUKE ML: Yes | 72¢ | $138.04 | Trade Now! |
| DUKE vs. MSU | MSU +6.5 (DUKE -6.5 NO): No | 61¢ | $164.82 | Trade Now! |
| ILL vs. TTU | TTU +2.5 (ILL -2.5 NO): No | 59¢ | $168.65 | Trade Now! |
| ILL vs. TTU | Under 161.5 (Over NO): No | 55¢ | $182.66 | Trade Now! |
| ILL vs. TTU | TTU ML: Yes | 46¢ | $218.68 | Trade Now! |
| KU vs. UK | KU ML: Yes | 69¢ | $145.88 | Trade Now! |
| KU vs. UK | KU -5.5: Yes | 53¢ | $189.56 | Trade Now! |
| KU vs. UK | Over 155.5: Yes | 52¢ | $193.22 | Trade Now! |
Read our Action Network dedicated Kalshi review to learn more about the exchange, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
College Basketball Predictions Today: My Top Kalshi Picks for November 10
These college basketball predictions real trades placed on Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps for college basketball, and you can find more coverage on the Action Network NCAAB hub.
Each ticket below is a $100 buy, and together they make up the best college basketball picks today from the games I cover.
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Two of the three games are part of the Champions Classic at Chicago's United Center, while the third is a ranked non-conference test on Texas Tech's home floor.
Duke vs. Michigan State Prediction
Duke and Michigan State open the Champions Classic at the United Center, with both teams 2-0 and Duke ranked No. 2. It is the 21st meeting between the programs, and Duke owns a 16-4 edge in the series.
Michigan State's last game was a 91-61 win over Toledo, though its freshmen, including Jasiah Jervis, have shown a mixed bag of strengths and weaknesses so far.
Kalshi's Duke -6.5 and 147.5 total match the numbers at FanDuel, where Duke's -260 moneyline implies roughly 72%, right in line with Kalshi's moneyline price.
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE ML | Yes | 72¢ | $138.04 | Trade Now! |
| DUKE -6.5 | Yes | 55¢ | $181.82 | Trade Now! |
| MSU +6.5 (DUKE -6.5 NO) | No | 61¢ | $164.82 | Trade Now! |
| Over 147.5 | Yes | 59¢ | $169.49 | Trade Now! |
| Under 147.5 (Over NO) | No | 75¢ | $133.52 | Trade Now! |
Best Total Pick Today: Under 147.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 147.5 (Over NO) | No | 75¢ | $133.52 | Trade Now! |
A total of 147.5 is five points higher than the 142.5 FanDuel posted when these programs met in the 2023 Champions Classic.
Early-season games between teams still settling their rotations can also play slower than the number suggests, and Michigan State's freshmen are still finding their roles.
Under 147.5 is the No side of the Over 147.5 contract, so I am buying No.
Kalshi's board shows No at 53¢ on this contract, but a $100 buy fills at a 75¢ average and the ticket flags slippage, so I use the ticket price in the table since the return is built from it.
At that price the ticket gets about 134 contracts that each pay $1, and the price can move before tip.
- The combined score is 147 points or fewer: Return of $133.52 on the $100 ticket
- The combined score is 148 points or more: the full $100 is lost
That works out to roughly a 1.3x return, the lowest multiple of the nine trades.
Best Moneyline Pick Today: Duke
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE ML | Yes | 72¢ | $138.04 | Trade Now! |
Duke is the market favorite for a reason, and the series history backs it up with 16 wins in 20 meetings. With both teams unbeaten, the edge comes down to the market's read on Duke's talent and a history that leans heavily its way.
This ticket and the Michigan State +6.5 trade below both cash if Duke wins by six points or fewer.
Kalshi's board shows Yes at 71¢, but the ticket fills at that slightly higher average, so I use it in the table. A $100 buy at a 72¢ average gets about 138 contracts that each pay $1 if Duke wins.
- Duke wins: Return of $138.04 on the $100 ticket
- Michigan State wins: the full $100 is lost
That is roughly a 1.4x return.
Best Spread Pick Today: Michigan State +6.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU +6.5 (DUKE -6.5 NO) | No | 61¢ | $164.82 | Trade Now! |
Six and a half points is a sizable cushion on a neutral floor, where neither team has a home crowd to lean on. Michigan State has already shown it can score, and a two-possession number is one that a game between two unbeaten programs can stay inside.
The contract reads "Duke wins by over 6.5 points," so Michigan State +6.5 is the No side.
The board shows No at 56¢, but the $100 ticket fills at a 61¢ average, so that is the price in the table. That buys about 165 contracts that each pay $1 if Duke does not win by seven or more.
- Michigan State wins or loses by six points or fewer: Return of $164.82 on the $100 ticket
- Duke wins by seven points or more: the full $100 is lost
That is a return of roughly 1.65x.
Illinois vs. Texas Tech Prediction
No. 3 Illinois visits Texas Tech in Lubbock, with both teams 2-0.
It is the second half of a home-and-home series after the Illini won 81-77 in Champaign last November, the first meeting between the programs, and Illinois is coming off a 28-9 season that ended in the Final Four.
The Illini have scored 120 against Fairleigh Dickinson and 112 against Penn, while the Red Raiders' defense has reportedly given up about 50 points per game. Illinois is also without David Mirkovic and Jake Davis, who are both out.
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTU ML | Yes | 46¢ | $218.68 | Trade Now! |
| ILL -2.5 | Yes | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade Now! |
| TTU +2.5 (ILL -2.5 NO) | No | 59¢ | $168.65 | Trade Now! |
| Over 161.5 | Yes | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
| Under 161.5 (Over NO) | No | 55¢ | $182.66 | Trade Now! |
Best Spread Pick Today: Texas Tech +2.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTU +2.5 (ILL -2.5 NO) | No | 59¢ | $168.65 | Trade Now! |
Home court matters in Lubbock, and Illinois is thinner than usual with Mirkovic and Davis sidelined. Last year's meeting was a four-point game, and a spread this small means Texas Tech covers with any win or a loss by one or two.
The contract reads "Illinois wins by over 2.5 points," so Texas Tech +2.5 is the No side.
The board shows No at 52¢, but the $100 ticket fills at a 59¢ average, so I use the ticket price. That buys about 169 contracts that each pay $1 if Illinois does not win by three or more.
- Texas Tech wins or loses by two points or fewer: Return of $168.65 on the $100 ticket
- Illinois wins by three points or more: the full $100 is lost
That is a return of roughly 1.69x.
Best Total Pick Today: Under 161.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 161.5 (Over NO) | No | 55¢ | $182.66 | Trade Now! |
A total of 161.5 is the highest on the board, and it makes sense given Illinois' 120-point and 112-point outings. The counterweight is a Texas Tech defense that has reportedly held opponents to about 50 points per game, and one side of that matchup has to give.
Under 161.5 is the No side of the Over 161.5 contract.
The board shows No at 53¢, but the ticket fills at a 55¢ average, so I use it in the table. A $100 buy at that price gets about 183 contracts that each pay $1.
- The combined score is 161 points or fewer: Return of $182.66 on the $100 ticket
- The combined score is 162 points or more: the full $100 is lost
That works out to roughly a 1.83x return.
Best Moneyline Pick Today: Texas Tech
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTU ML | Yes | 46¢ | $218.68 | Trade Now! |
Texas Tech is the home underdog against a top-three team, and that is where the price comes from. The Red Raiders' defense is the reason to believe in an upset, and Illinois is short-handed.
If Texas Tech wins outright, the +2.5 ticket above cashes as well.
Kalshi's board shows Yes at 44¢, but the ticket fills at a 46¢ average, so that is the price I use. A $100 buy gets about 219 contracts that each pay $1 if Texas Tech wins.
- Texas Tech wins: Return of $218.68 on the $100 ticket
- Illinois wins: the full $100 is lost
That is the biggest multiple of the nine trades at roughly 2.19x.
Kansas vs. Kentucky Prediction
The two winningest programs in college basketball history meet for the 10th time in 13 seasons, this time as the second game of the Champions Classic at the United Center.
Both teams are 2-0, Kentucky leads the all-time series 24-12, and Kansas has won the last two meetings.
Kansas is averaging 92.0 points per game with a plus-37.0 scoring margin through two games, and it is plus-11.5 on the glass. Kentucky is in year three under Mark Pope, and KenPom projects an 83-76 Kansas win, with Torvik at 81-74 and Evan Miya at 81-72.
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| KU ML | Yes | 69¢ | $145.88 | Trade Now! |
| KU -5.5 | Yes | 53¢ | $189.56 | Trade Now! |
| UK +5.5 (KU -5.5 NO) | No | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade Now! |
| Over 155.5 | Yes | 52¢ | $193.22 | Trade Now! |
| Under 155.5 (Over NO) | No | 53¢ | $188.68 | Trade Now! |
Best Moneyline Pick Today: Kansas
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| KU ML | Yes | 69¢ | $145.88 | Trade Now! |
KenPom and Torvik both give Kentucky about a 27% chance to win, which puts Kansas near 73%. Kalshi's 69¢ ticket price sits a few points below that, so the market is a touch more cautious than the models.
Kansas has also won three of the last four meetings in the series. Kalshi's board shows Yes at 67¢, but the ticket fills at a 69¢ average, so I use it in the table. A $100 buy gets about 146 contracts that each pay $1 if Kansas wins.
- Kansas wins: Return of $145.88 on the $100 ticket
- Kentucky wins: the full $100 is lost
That is roughly a 1.46x return.
Best Spread Pick Today: Kansas -5.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| KU -5.5 | Yes | 53¢ | $189.56 | Trade Now! |
All three projections above have Kansas winning by seven or more, with Evan Miya at nine, so each one clears the 5.5-point number. The one concern is the foul line, where Kansas has hit just 28 of 52 free throws, or 53.8%.
The contract reads "Kansas wins by over 5.5 points," so I am buying Yes.
The board shows Yes at 51¢, but the $100 ticket fills at a 53¢ average, so that is the price in the table. That buys about 190 contracts that each pay $1 if Kansas wins by six or more.
- Kansas wins by six points or more: Return of $189.56 on the $100 ticket
- Kansas wins by five points or fewer, or Kentucky wins: the full $100 is lost
That is a return of roughly 1.90x.
Best Total Pick Today: Over 155.5
| 🏀 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 155.5 | Yes | 52¢ | $193.22 | Trade Now! |
This is the thinnest of the three Kansas-Kentucky trades because the projections are split. KenPom's 83-76 forecast totals 159 points, above the line, while Torvik at 155 and Miya at 153 land just under it.
The case for the Over rests on Kansas' scoring pace, which has produced 92.0 points per game so far.
The board shows Yes at 50¢, but the ticket fills at a 52¢ average, so I use the ticket price. A $100 buy gets about 193 contracts that each pay $1 if the game reaches 156 points.
- The combined score is 156 points or more: Return of $193.22 on the $100 ticket
- The combined score is 155 points or fewer: the full $100 is lost
That works out to roughly a 1.93x return.
Prices on all nine of these best college basketball picks today are a snapshot, so check the live order book on Kalshi before you place a trade.
What's Moving the Market: NCAAB Predictions for November 10
These screenshots capture a moment rather than a trend, so the most useful signal in these NCAAB predictions is how far each $100 ticket filled from the board price. The moneyline markets were the tightest, with fills one or two cents above the board on Duke, Texas Tech and Kansas.
The No-side tickets told a different story. Michigan State +6.5 filled five cents above the board, Texas Tech +2.5 filled seven cents above, and Under 147.5 filled 22 cents above, which is the widest gap on the slate and a sign of a thin book on that side. Every other spread and total ticket stayed within two cents.
The lines themselves are in step with the wider market, with FanDuel showing Duke -6.5 and a 147.5 total, and you can compare more numbers on the Action Network NCAAB odds page. My college basketball predictions today will keep shifting up to tip, and our prediction markets hub has more on how these exchanges price games.
How to Trade the Best College Basketball Picks Today on Kalshi
Ready to get in on these games? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading college basketball predictions:
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to get started!
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Final Thoughts on College Basketball Predictions Today
My college basketball predictions today lean on three themes: a Duke team the market clearly favors, a home underdog in Lubbock with a defense to match, and a Kansas side that every projection likes against Kentucky.
The board prices are a snapshot, so the fills matter as much as the lines.
If you want to look past this week, the NCAAB futures board shows where the market sees these programs heading into March.
For now, these are the best college basketball picks today across the games I'm covering, and the NCAAB predictions above give you three games' worth of Kalshi trades to weigh.
Kalshi Promo Code FAQs
What Are the College Basketball Predictions Today on Kalshi?
My college basketball predictions today cover three games: Duke vs. Michigan State, Illinois vs. Texas Tech and Kansas vs. Kentucky. Each game has a moneyline, spread and total trade priced on Kalshi, nine tickets in all.
Which Are the Best College Basketball Picks Today?
The best college basketball picks today in this piece are the nine Kalshi tickets above, listed by price within each game. Texas Tech to win is the longest shot, while Under 147.5 in Duke vs. Michigan State carries the highest price.
How Do NCAAB Predictions on Kalshi Work?
NCAAB predictions on Kalshi are Yes or No contracts that each pay one dollar if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not. The price you pay reflects the market's implied chance, so a 72¢ contract implies roughly a 72% chance.
How Do I Claim the Kalshi Promo Code Bonus?
Sign up through the links in this article, enter the Kalshi promo code when prompted, and complete the qualifying steps listed in the offer terms, such as a qualifying deposit. Review the full terms and conditions before you trade.
How Do Spread and Total Contracts Resolve?
A spread contract such as Duke wins by over 6.5 points resolves Yes if Duke wins by seven or more and No otherwise. A total contract such as Over 147.5 resolves Yes if the combined score is 148 or higher, so Under is simply the No side.
Why Is the Ticket Price Different From the Board Price?
A ticket fills at an average price across the order book, so a larger buy can cost more than the headline price on the board. When the two differ, I use the ticket price in my tables because the return is built from it.
What Does the Return Column Mean?
Return shows the total payout if a trade hits, including your original stake, for a 100 dollar buy. Tables labeled Est. Return use a calculation from the posted price and can differ from the exact figure Kalshi shows at checkout.
Which Games Are Part of the Champions Classic?
Duke vs. Michigan State and Kansas vs. Kentucky are the Champions Classic games, played at the United Center in Chicago. Illinois vs. Texas Tech is a separate non-conference game in Lubbock.
