Fernando Mendoza Player Props | Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Seahawks vs Raiders Prediction, Best NFL Player Props, First TD & Anytime TD Scorer Picks

The Novig promo code (ACTION) is perfect for Sunday's Week 10 game in Las Vegas. This Seahawks vs. Raiders prediction rounds up our best Fernando Mendoza player props.

• The Seahawks arrive at 5-4 as 6.5-point road favorites, bringing the NFL's top-ranked defense even with quarterback Sam Darnold out with a quad injury.
• The Raiders sit at 4-5 and hand the ball to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza for his first NFL start after trading Kirk Cousins to the Vikings.

Here is our full picks table from the best prediction markets before we break down every Mendoza prop, from the best NFL prop bets today to our first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer predictions.

Read our dedicated Novig review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.

Fernando Mendoza Player Props: Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Seahawks vs Raiders

No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza makes his first career start against the NFL's top-ranked defense, and Novig posts a full board of Mendoza props to trade it.

Mendoza's 2025 numbers came at Indiana against college competition, so we use them only as background. NFL defenses are faster, and Seattle's is the best of them, so matching last year's production is a much bigger ask.

Every pick below is a real trade we'd make on Novig, part of our best NFL player props for this matchup, and we rank them from the safest price to the longest shot. Not sure where to trade? Start with the best prediction market apps, or browse more matchups on our NFL hub.

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Best Longest Completion Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 27+ Yards

Mendoza averaged 9.3 yards per attempt at Indiana last season, but that was college football, and NFL secondaries close throwing windows much faster. We treat that number as background, not a projection.

Seattle limits big plays, and opponents produce an explosive play on just 11.1 percent of dropbacks when the Seahawks blitz, the lowest rate in the NFL. Still, this prop needs only one completion of 27 yards over a full game, and tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Tre Tucker give Mendoza two reliable targets, behind an offensive line that ranks second in pass-block win rate.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at 70.5% comes to roughly 142 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a total return of $141.84.

• If Mendoza completes a pass of 27 or more yards: Return of $141.84.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.4x on the shortest price on the board.

Best Passing and Rushing Yards Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 196+ Yards

Mendoza piled up big combined yardage at Indiana last season, mostly in lopsided college wins, and matching those totals against the NFL's top-ranked defense is much tougher. The 69% price already reflects that the college numbers don't carry over one-for-one.

The combined line still gives him two paths to the number. He moves better than the 38-year-old Kirk Cousins, so scrambles can fill the gap when Seattle takes away his first read.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at 69.0% comes to roughly 145 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a return of $144.92.

• If Mendoza reaches 196 or more combined passing and rushing yards: Return of $144.92.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.4x on a combined number that leans on his arm and his legs.

Best Passing Touchdowns Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 1+ Passing Touchdowns

Mendoza threw 41 touchdown passes at Indiana last season, the most in FBS, but he did it against college defenses, and Seattle plays on a different level.

Since Mike Macdonald arrived in 2024, rookie quarterbacks have thrown one touchdown pass in 174 dropbacks against the Seahawks, and the four rookies who made their first career start against Macdonald went 16 quarters without one. That history explains why this price sits at 66% instead of higher.

Raiders coach Klint Kubiak helps here. He spent last season practicing against this defense on the way to a Super Bowl title as Seattle's offensive coordinator, so he knows where to attack.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at 66.0% comes to roughly 152 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a return of $151.51.

• If Mendoza throws one or more touchdown passes: Return of $151.51.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.5x for a prop that needs just one touchdown pass, even against this defense.

Best Interceptions Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 1+ Interceptions Thrown

Macdonald's defense gives rookies fits. Rookie quarterbacks have thrown seven interceptions in 174 dropbacks against Seattle since 2024, and the four who made their first career start against Macdonald threw nine interceptions combined.

Mendoza threw only six interceptions in 16 college games, but that low rate came against college defenders, and he threw two more in the preseason. Rookies post a 29.9 percent success rate against Seattle, compared with 40.9 percent against everyone else.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at 58.5% comes to roughly 171 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a return of $170.94.

• If Mendoza throws one or more interceptions: Return of $170.94.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.7x on the one prop that bets against the rookie.

Best Passing Completions Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 18+ Completions

Mendoza averaged 17.1 completions per game at Indiana last season, but that was college football, and an NFL pass defense this good makes completions harder to find. We treat that average as context, and the case for this prop rests on game script instead.

Former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett recommends quick, high-percentage throws early for a quarterback making his first start. Short completions pile up fast, and they count the same as deep ones, especially if the Raiders trail as 6.5-point underdogs.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at a 54.0% price comes to roughly 185 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a total return of $185.18.

• If Mendoza completes 18 or more passes: Return of $185.18.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.9x on a number priced just above a coin flip.

Best Passing Yards Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 181+ Yards

Mendoza averaged 220.9 passing yards per game at Indiana last season, but that came in college, and we don't expect that pace to carry over against Seattle.

The bigger issue is efficiency. Rookies average 4.5 yards per attempt against Seattle since 2024, so a 181-yard day takes roughly 40 throws at that rate. This pick needs volume, and a Raiders ground game that ranks second-to-last at 71.3 yards per game pushes Las Vegas toward the air.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at a 54.0% price comes to roughly 185 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a return of $185.18.

• If Mendoza throws for 181 or more yards: Return of $185.18.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.9x on a yardage number that depends on how often the Raiders throw.

Best Rushing Yards Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 13+ Yards

Mendoza ran 90 times for 276 yards at Indiana last season, and NCAA stats subtract sack yardage from rushing totals, so he ran for more than that. College running doesn't translate automatically, though, because NFL defenders close faster.

He moves better than Cousins, and a Raiders run game that averages just 2.89 yards per carry leaves scrambles as one of the few reliable ways to move the chains against a defense that stops the run.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at 53.0% comes to roughly 189 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a return of $188.67.

• If Mendoza rushes for 13 or more yards: Return of $188.67.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.9x on a modest rushing floor.

Best Passing Attempts Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 31+ Attempts

This is the pure game-script prop. The Raiders enter as 6.5-point underdogs against the league's top-ranked defense, and sportsbooks set their team total at 16.5 points.

Mendoza's college workload says little here, since blowouts at Indiana kept his attempt totals low. A former NFL play-caller told Yahoo Sports that a first-time starter should throw 20 to 25 times, but trailing changes that math, so this coin flip asks whether Las Vegas falls behind early.

On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at a 50.0% price comes to roughly 200 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, and the ticket shows a return of $200.00.

• If Mendoza throws 31 or more passes: Return of $200.00.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of exactly 2x on the cleanest coin flip on the board.

Best Anytime Touchdown Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 1+ Touchdown

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for a quarterback come down to rushing touchdowns. Mendoza scored seven on the ground at Indiana, including a 12-yard run on fourth-and-4 in the national championship game against Miami. Still, those came in college, so we read them as a sign he runs in the red zone, not a guarantee.

Seattle history backs the angle. Of the four rookies who made their first career start against Macdonald, only Bo Nix scored an offensive touchdown, and he ran it in himself.

The Raiders rank second-to-last in rushing yards per game, which makes a goal-line keeper a live option for Kubiak.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at 14.0% comes to roughly 714 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, for a return of $714.28.

• If Mendoza scores a touchdown himself: Return of $714.28.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 7.1x on a prop that needs just one rushing score.

Best First Touchdown Scorer Pick Today: Fernando Mendoza

This is the lottery ticket. Only one player scores the game's first touchdown, and Mendoza's 3.8% price reflects how few quarterbacks find the end zone first.

The Raiders also need to score first against the Seahawks, whose defense allows the fewest yards per game in the NFL through nine weeks. Our first touchdown scorer predictions for this game start with the sneak or scramble that this offense might call near the goal line.

On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at a 3.8% price comes to roughly 2,632 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes result, and the ticket shows a return of $2,631.57.

• If Mendoza scores the game's first touchdown: Return of $2,631.57.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 26x, so size this one like a lottery ticket.

Seahawks vs Raiders Prediction: Moneyline, Spread and Total

Novig also posts the base game lines for this Seahawks vs Raiders prediction, and the latest Seahawks vs Raiders odds at Action Network show the same 6.5-point spread and 40.5-point total for comparison.

Novig gives Seattle a 73% chance to win outright and treats the 6.5-point spread as a near pick'em, with the Raiders at 50% to cover. Sportsbooks agree on the number, with Seattle at -6.5 on Action Network's odds page.

The total sits at 40.5 with the Over and Under separated by a single point, and sportsbooks set the Raiders' team total at 16.5. That low number shows how little the market expects from Las Vegas on the scoreboard, which leaves room for Mendoza's volume props to cash even in a low-scoring game.

What's Moving the Market: Fernando Mendoza Player Props

Prediction markets and prices move for many reasons, and the biggest swing on this game came on the spread. Seattle opened at -7, sat at -4.5 early on Nov 10, then climbed back to -6.5 within about 20 minutes, and sportsbooks held that number through Thursday.

Our best NFL player props lean on the same theme. Novig gives Mendoza a 58.5% chance to throw an interception, yet it also prices 31 or more attempts at a coin flip, suggesting traders expect the Raiders to chase the Seahawks.

We can't say what drove each move, since a board shows prices and not reasons. Check the live Novig order book before you trade, because thin prop markets can shift quickly.

How to Trade These Picks on Novig

Ready to get in on Mendoza's first start? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading:

• Read a comprehensive Novig review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Novig to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Novig to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Final Thoughts: Best NFL Player Props for Mendoza's First Start

Mendoza has no NFL film as a starter, and Seattle brings the league's top-ranked defense, so these Fernando Mendoza player props carry real variance. His college numbers came against different competition, and they don't promise anything in the NFL.

Our best NFL prop bets today split into two camps: volume and usage props that reward a trailing Raiders offense, and one interception prop that bets on Macdonald's track record against rookies. The touchdown props add leverage at long prices.

That wraps our Seahawks vs Raiders prediction for the No. 1 pick's debut. Compare every price against the latest Seahawks vs Raiders odds before kickoff.

Seahawks vs Raiders Prediction FAQs

What are the best Fernando Mendoza player props for Seahawks vs Raiders?

Our board centers on volume and usage. The 27-yard longest completion, 196 combined yards, and one-plus passing touchdown props carry the shortest prices, while the interception, attempts, and rushing props pay more.

Do Fernando Mendoza's college stats predict his NFL player props?

No. Mendoza put up his 2025 numbers at Indiana against college defenses, and Seattle fields the NFL's top-ranked defense, so we treat those stats as background and expect them to be tough to repeat.

Is this Fernando Mendoza's first NFL start?

Yes. The Raiders drafted Mendoza first overall in 2026, and he waited nine weeks to make his first start after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to the Vikings.

How does Seattle's defense play against rookie quarterbacks?

Since Mike Macdonald took over in 2024, rookies have averaged 4.5 yards per attempt against Seattle and thrown one touchdown pass and seven interceptions in 174 dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.

What are the best first touchdown scorer predictions for Seahawks vs Raiders?

Our first touchdown scorer pick is Mendoza himself at 3.8%, a long shot that cashes only if he finishes the game's first scoring drive with a sneak or scramble.

What are the best anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Seahawks vs Raiders?

Mendoza at 14% for one or more touchdowns is our anytime touchdown scorer pick. He scored seven rushing touchdowns at Indiana, and the only rookie to score against Macdonald in a first start did it on the ground.

How do I use the Novig promo code?

Create an account, make a $10 deposit, and enter the Novig promo code ACTION during sign-up to unlock the $50 trading bonus, subject to the terms and conditions.

How do Novig player prop contracts resolve?

A Yes contract resolves Yes if the player reaches the listed stat in the game and No if he doesn't. Each share pays 1 dollar when your side wins and nothing when it doesn't.

What does the Return column in the picks table mean?

It shows what a $100 trade returns if the pick wins, including your original stake, taken from the ticket's payout figure. Tables labeled Est. Return use an estimate based on the listed price instead.

Where is Seahawks vs. Raiders played, and what channel is it on?

The game kicks off Sunday afternoon at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on CBS.