David Leitch's heist movie "How to Rob a Bank" opens in theaters Friday with a Tomatometer of 32% that is still being counted, and prediction markets have priced the final Rotten Tomatoes score almost exactly there. Kalshi's forecast reads 32.7%, while Polymarket's ladder treats anything from 45 up as a long shot.
'How to Rob a Bank' Rotten Tomatoes score Kalshi odds: Top trading contracts
Kalshi lists a ladder of "Above X" contracts, each priced from 1 cent to 99 cents as an implied probability. A Yes pays $1 if the Tomatometer is above the threshold when the market resolves and nothing if it is not. The market has traded $1.09 million in volume, and Kalshi's page shows the score at 32% with a "Counting" label.
Interpolating between Above 30 (82%) and Above 35 (22%), the 50% line sits around a 33, matching Kalshi's 32.7% forecast. That is the market's rough median guess, not a prediction from us. The uncertainty is tight: the same math puts the 75% and 25% strikes only about four points apart, near 31 and 35.
Above 35 (22%, Yes 22 cents, No 79 cents, down 68 points)
This is the pivot, and the strike where the market is most divided. It needs the score to climb about three points from 32%, and it has lost 68 points as the reviews came in. At 22 cents, the market treats a rebound as roughly a 1-in-5 shot.
Above 30 (82%, Yes 83 cents, No 18 cents, down 14 points)
Traders see better than 4-in-5 odds that the score stays above 30, but that leaves only two points of cushion. Even this strike has been repriced lower as the number slid, which shows how little room the market thinks the film has.
Above 25 (99%, Yes 99 cents, No 2 cents)
This is the floor. The market treats a score of 25 or lower as nearly impossible, and a 99-cent Yes leaves just 1 cent of upside, so the price is a statement of confidence more than a trade.
Above 60 (<1%, Yes 1 cent)
This is the Fresh line, since a Tomatometer of 60% or higher earns the Fresh label. Leitch's earlier directing credits, including "Deadpool 2" (83%), "The Fall Guy" (82%) and "Atomic Blonde" (79%), cleared it comfortably, but the market gives this film essentially no chance.
- Above 40 and Above 42 (2%, down 45 and down 36 points): Both trade at 2%, with Yes prices of 3 cents and 2 cents. That one-cent difference is noise on a thin strike, not a signal. The large drops show how much probability sat here before the score fell.
- Above 45 (1%, down 9 points): The market sees a jump of more than 13 points as a remote possibility.
- Above 47 through Above 55 (<1%, Yes 1 cent): These strikes sit at the minimum price, so they are effectively priced as near-impossible.
- Above 65 and Above 70 (<1%, Yes 1 cent): The top of the ladder is priced the same way, with no meaningful probability.
The table below lists the Yes price for each strike Kalshi shares with Polymarket and the profit on a $100 position if that Yes hits. Profit figures exclude fees, and all of these are long-shot prices.
| Contract | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45 | 'How to Rob a Bank' | Above 45 Yes (2¢) | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 50 | 'How to Rob a Bank' | Above 50 Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 55 | 'How to Rob a Bank' | Above 55 Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 60 | 'How to Rob a Bank' | Above 60 Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 65 | 'How to Rob a Bank' | Above 65 Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 70 | 'How to Rob a Bank' | Above 70 Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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'How to Rob a Bank' Rotten Tomatoes score Polymarket odds: Top trading contracts
Polymarket uses "X+" contracts, and a Yes pays $1 if the score meets the threshold when the market resolves. The page lists a Nov. 16 date and $20,417 in total volume, so Kalshi's board is more than 50 times deeper. The visible ladder runs from 45+ to 75+ and every strike is at 2% or lower, which makes it a tail-risk board for a surprise rebound rather than a read on where the score will land.
One quirk to know: on thin strikes, the headline percentage and the Buy Yes price can differ. The percentage is the market's probability, while the buy price is what it costs to take a position right now.
45+ (2%, Yes 3.6 cents, No 99 cents, down 22 points)
This is the closest strike to the current score and the biggest mover on the board. The 3.6-cent Yes price sits above the 2% headline, a sign of thin liquidity. Kalshi prices the comparable Above 45 contract at 1%.
60+ (1%, Yes 1.5 cents, No 99 cents, down 1 point)
This is the Fresh line, and it has the lowest volume on the board at $890. Its 1.5-cent Yes price sits above the 0.8 cents for 50+, a quirk of thin order books rather than a signal that 60 is likelier than 50.
75+ (<1%, Yes 0.8 cents, No 99.9 cents)
The top strike costs less than a penny and represents a score more than double the current reading. It has traded $1,879, so there is some interest in the extreme tail, but the market treats it as a lottery ticket.
- 50+ (1%, down 9 points): Yes costs 0.8 cents, with $4,207 in volume.
- 55+ (1%, down 3 points): Yes costs 1.3 cents, with $2,937 in volume.
- 65+ (1%, no change shown): Yes costs 1.3 cents, with $2,822 in volume.
- 70+ (<1%, down 1 point): Yes costs 0.8 cents, with $3,218 in volume.
The table below lists the Yes price for each shared strike and the profit on a $100 position if that Yes hits. Profit figures exclude fees.
| Contract | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45+ | 'How to Rob a Bank' | 45+ Yes (3.6¢) | $2,677.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 50+ | 'How to Rob a Bank' | 50+ Yes (0.8¢) | $12,400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 55+ | 'How to Rob a Bank' | 55+ Yes (1.3¢) | $7,592.31 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 60+ | 'How to Rob a Bank' | 60+ Yes (1.5¢) | $6,566.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 65+ | 'How to Rob a Bank' | 65+ Yes (1.3¢) | $7,592.31 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 70+ | 'How to Rob a Bank' | 70+ Yes (0.8¢) | $12,400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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'How to Rob a Bank' Rotten Tomatoes score: Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds
Six strikes appear on both boards, and they tell the same story.
| Threshold | Kalshi (Above X) | Polymarket (X+) | Gap (Polymarket minus Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 1% | 2% | +1 point |
| 50 | <1% | 1% | Up to +1 point |
| 55 | <1% | 1% | Up to +1 point |
| 60 | <1% | 1% | Up to +1 point |
| 65 | <1% | 1% | Up to +1 point |
| 70 | <1% | <1% | Under 1 point |
Both exchanges price everything from 45 up as a long shot, with the gap between them within a point at every shared strike. The wider Polymarket numbers likely reflect sub-cent pricing and thin liquidity on a board with $20,417 in volume against Kalshi's $1.09 million. The Polymarket screenshot also starts at 45+, so the market-implied score of about 33 comes from Kalshi's lower strikes.
Kalshi's "Above X" and Polymarket's "X+" wording can differ by a point at the boundary, so treat these as near matches rather than identical contracts. Do not read a one-point gap as an arbitrage opportunity without checking each exchange's resolution rules.
'How to Rob a Bank' Rotten Tomatoes score price analysis: Market price influencers
The biggest swings sit in the middle of the ladder. Kalshi's Above 35 is down 68 points and Above 40 is down 45 points, while Polymarket's 45+ is down 22 points. Kalshi's chart shows the forecast starting in the low 60s in mid-October, before any reviews, and sliding to 32.7% now.
The slide tracks the critics. After the first reviews landed Wednesday, CinemaBlend described the score as hovering a little under 50%, and it has fallen since. Critics have faulted the film's social media-style presentation and an anti-corporate message that comes from an Amazon MGM release, even when they credit the action. The Guardian gave it two stars.
The key variable is the review count. A score that is still counting moves less with each added review, so Above 35 needs a run of positive notices rather than one or two. The drift so far has been down, which is why the market treats 35 as a 22% proposition and 30 as only 82%. Polymarket lists a Nov. 16 date, so the window for a rebound is short.
How to trade 'How to Rob a Bank' Rotten Tomatoes score on prediction markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
'How to Rob a Bank' Rotten Tomatoes score: Final thoughts
The 50% line sits around a 33 on Kalshi's ladder, just above the current 32% reading, and the band from the 75% to the 25% strike spans only about four points. The score needs a net gain of roughly three points to reach Above 35 and a small slip to break the Above 30 floor. Everything from 45 up, including the 60 Fresh line, is priced as a long shot on both exchanges.
'How to Rob a Bank' Rotten Tomatoes score FAQs
How do Rotten Tomatoes score markets work on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Both exchanges list a ladder of threshold contracts for a movie's Tomatometer, such as "Above 30" on Kalshi or "45+" on Polymarket. Each Yes contract trades between 1 cent and 99 cents, which maps to an implied probability, and pays $1 if the score meets the threshold when the market resolves.
What is the Tomatometer, and what makes a movie Fresh or Rotten?
The Tomatometer is the percentage of approved professional critic reviews that Rotten Tomatoes classifies as positive. A score of 60% or higher is Fresh, and a score of 59% or lower is Rotten. Certified Fresh is a separate seal that requires a higher score and a minimum number of reviews.
What is the "How to Rob a Bank" Rotten Tomatoes score right now?
Kalshi's page showed a Tomatometer of 32% on Friday, labeled as still counting. The score can change as more critic reviews are added.
What score does the market expect for "How to Rob a Bank"?
Kalshi's ladder crosses 50% at roughly a 33, and its forecast reads 32.7%. Polymarket's visible strikes start at 45+, where the market prices a 2% chance.
When does the "How to Rob a Bank" Rotten Tomatoes market resolve?
Polymarket's page lists a Nov. 16 date. Check the resolution rules on each exchange for the exact time the score is read, because the Tomatometer can move until then.
Can the Tomatometer still change after a movie opens?
Yes. Rotten Tomatoes keeps adding eligible critic reviews, so the percentage can rise or fall. A score that is still counting moves less with each additional review as the total grows.
Will "How to Rob a Bank" be Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes?
The markets say it is very unlikely. Kalshi prices Above 60 at less than 1%, and Polymarket prices 60+ at 1%. The score would need to nearly double from its current reading to reach the Fresh line.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Kalshi's board is much deeper, with $1.09 million in volume compared with $20,417 on Polymarket, and its ladder includes the lower strikes where the pricing action is. Kalshi uses "Above X" wording while Polymarket uses "X+," so strikes can differ slightly at the boundary.
