Saints vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - September 13, 2026

Probably not hitting

Game 1 1H Unders NFL O/U 1H Record84-41-3, 67.2% Margin 1.93 Money Won +$3,522 ROI27.5% GradeA #TSA

@GDAWG5000 https://www.youtube.com/live/rmDj16Ak_rs?is=_BhFd9HeUh9fVv17

@gneiffer07 https://www.youtube.com/live/rmDj16Ak_rs?is=v74_gbgFwBBP35OM

The sneaky Week 1 angle here is Taysom Hill being gone. Hill was active for all 10 of Shough’s starts last year and regularly took him off the field for a handful of snaps, many of them designed QB runs. I’m not expecting Shough to simply inherit all of those, but I do think it creates some sneaky upside for a few more designed runs than the market may be accounting for. Detroit also plays man at a high rate, which can create more scramble opportunities, and they’re good at generating pressure. Shough was sacked on 25% of his pressures last year, second highest among qualified QBs, so I’d imagine Kellen Moore has worked with him on getting out of trouble with his legs more often instead of taking sacks. Add in a game where New Orleans could be trailing and forced into more dropbacks, and I have Shough closer to 18.5 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to clear 16.5.

This line is sitting at Lions -6.5 or -7, which feels like a trap dying to be teased. I don't truly believe in Tyler Shough leading this New Orleans offense, but the Lions secondary is remarkably banged up for a season that hasn't even started yet. Detroit is starting D.J. Reed and Rock Ya-Sin at corner, with veterans Avonte Maddox and Chuck Clark at safety. Detroit allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers in each of the last two years. Last season, the Lions faced what I would consider 11 "true" WR1s. Those receivers averaged 5.9 catches for 88 yards on 9.9 targets, hitting 100 yards five times and 120 yards four times. With rookie Jordan Tyson on IR, this is the Chris Olave show for New Orleans. Olave averaged 2.37 yards per route run with Shough last year (8th best among all WRs), which was a 45% improvement over his numbers with Spencer Rattler. In his last seven games with Shough, Olave averaged 6.4 catches for 86 yards on 9.9 targets—mirroring exactly what Detroit gives up to WR1s. He went for 100+ yards in three of those seven games, including twice with at least 119 yards.

@wheatonbrando https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-betting-playground-week-1/id1004530793?i=1000789000615

@GDAWG5000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0FRCvBCOjsMbSyaB9McQxr?si=qion2LxCRuqOsRTD66bmrg&utm_source=copy-link

Early road dogs that missed the previous postseason day games Overall: 130-69-6,65% (ROI:27%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA

Should only be 1