The 2026 NFL season is fast approaching, so fantasy football draft prep is well underway. But with prediction markets like Kalshi, you can find new ways to make a profit on your fantasy football takes. For example, you're able to make trades on the top-scoring fantasy quarterback for the upcoming season. The Kalshi market on the top-scoring fantasy quarterback has shifted quite a bit since June, so it's time to update the board before Week 1.
In this article, we're revisiting our best buys and sells for the top fantasy quarterback at Kalshi, with fresh prices and updated takes. We'll also flag whether you should look to take an early exit on any positions.
So, without further ado, here's a look at the updated buys and sells, including Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, and more.
Fantasy Quarterback Buys
When determining the best buys at quarterback, we're looking for undervalued signal-callers who can make an impact both through the air and on the ground.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (9 cents at Kalshi)
Jayden Daniels is coming off an injury-plagued season, which limited him to only seven games. However, we can't let that down year make us forget how impressive he was as a rookie, when he finished as QB5 for the season.
The Commanders promoted David Blough to be their new offensive coordinator. This is a coach who flew through the ranks and was highly coveted by the Lions. Blough is going to have Daniels play under center more, so he'll be put in a position to grow as a passer.
As one of the biggest rushing threats in the NFL, Daniels plays an extremely fantasy-friendly game. There are going to be several spike weeks that put him in a spot to contend for overall QB1, but we have to acknowledge his injury risk due to his playing style. That means that even though he's a good buy at 9 cents (down from 18 when we first ran this piece) this is still a spot where you can look to take an early exit from your position.
The Commanders have three tough games against the Eagles, Cowboys and Seahawks to start the year, but those are spots where they'll need Daniels to carry them. We wouldn't rule out a strong start even though two of three of those games are against great defenses.
After that, the Commanders face the Colts, Giants and 49ers, where two of those games could turn into shootouts. If Daniels is in the top three by the Week 7 bye, you could try to sell for a profit due to his injury risk.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (10 cents at Kalshi)
Caleb Williams finished as QB6 last season in his first year with Ben Johnson. Now more adapted to this scheme, we could see Williams take his game to new heights in 2026.
The Bears are loaded with talent on offense, including Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze, so Williams has a strong supporting cast that you need to finish as QB1.
On top of that, like Daniels, Williams plays a fantasy-friendly game, as he's able to make explosive plays off-script and add strong production on the ground. If the Bears offense takes off as expected, Williams will have a great chance to finish as the top scoring fantasy quarterback.
We haven't seen Williams miss much time so far this year, so I'm less worried about injury with him as with Daniels. We are willing to hold this one all year, given the play-calling and weapons on offense.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (13 cents at Kalshi)
Jalen Hurts just lost A.J. Brown, but the Eagles made some shrewd moves on offense, drafting Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers while bringing in Dontayvion Wicks.
The biggest upgrade for Philly is at play-caller, where Sean Mannion replaces Kevin Patullo, who was one of the worst play-callers in recent memory, given the talent he had at his disposal, so expect the Eagles offense to look a lot better this year.
Despite coming off a down year, Hurts has the ability to be among the top scorers at his position, especially because of the tush push, which allows him to rack up touchdowns on the ground.
The Eagles could be involved in a few shootouts to start the year, including against the Commanders (Week 1), Bears (Week 3), Rams (Week 4), and Jaguars (Week 5).
Once they hit the Week 10 bye, if Hurts is in the top three, you can look to sell. There's a chance that he'll be off to a great start due to the schedule.
Fantasy Quarterback Sells
The top fantasy quarterback sells are either based on price or injury risk. These are positions that you can hold all year.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (34 cents at Kalshi)
Josh Allen is the biggest favorite to finish as overall QB1.
You have to like the continuity on offense with the Bills promoting Joe Brady from offensive coordinator to head coach. Expect the team to once again have a run-heavy offense, where Allen can score double-digit touchdowns, since they use the tush push quite often.
The case for fading Allen is now less about the price and more about the opportunity. The market has already corrected a lot since June, so if you're holding a YES position, this stretch before Week 1 could be a good spot to take some profit.
If you're starting fresh, the value isn't as obvious at 34 cents as it was on the other side at 95. Either way, the Week 1 matchup against the Texans, who should have one of the best defenses in the NFL, is a useful early test.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (23 cents at Kalshi)
Lamar Jackson is coming off an injury-plagued season. We all know about his talent, and he has the ability to break fantasy football.
The Ravens brought in Declan Doyle to be their new offensive coordinator. He comes from Ben Johnson's staff, so there's some optimism there.
But the main reason to fade Lamar at 23 cents remains the same one that drove the original call: his play style makes it hard to stay on the field for a full season, and finishing as the top-scoring fantasy quarterback requires that kind of availability. The price has come down from 95 cents, but the underlying risk hasn't.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (12 cents at Kalshi)
We're finishing it off with a Justin Herbert fade.
The Chargers made a massive upgrade at offensive coordinator, replacing Greg Roman with Mike McDaniel. They're also likely to be in a lot more shootouts, since we could see regression on defense after losing their defensive mastermind, Jesse Minter.
The sell here has already played out well from 95 cents to 12. At this price, there's less margin on the NO side than there was, but Herbert has never finished close to QB1, and that track record is still intact. If you're looking for places to trade across this market, the YES contracts on Daniels, Williams, and Hurts offer better setups.
