The Giants host the rival Commanders in an NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will stream on Prime Video.
The Giants are 1.5-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread (Giants -1.5), with an over/under of 41.5 points. The Commanders are +114 underdogs and the Giants are -134 favorites on the moneyline.
Continue below for our Commanders vs Giants picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and three player props.
Commanders vs Giants Picks, Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Commanders vs Giants Odds
- Commanders vs Giants Spread: Commanders +1.5, Giants -1.5
- Commanders vs Giants Total: 40.5
- Commanders vs Giants Moneyline: Commanders +114, Giants -134
For the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 10 Odds & Action Report.
Commanders vs Giants Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
The Giants and Commanders are running it back after playing to what was, frankly, a ridiculous draw back in Week 5 in which both teams had opportunities to win the game with a field goal but didn’t even attempt the kick. The Giants at least fumbled away their opportunity from the Commanders' 24-yard line, while the Commanders took an unnecessary sack with 12 seconds left instead of kicking from the Giants' 26-yard line.
While I suppose there’s a case to be made that the Giants have improved since then thanks to the addition of J.J. McCarthy at quarterback – a sentence that would’ve seemed insane a couple months ago – they’ve also been much luckier than the Commanders. According to Nick Giffen’s Luck Rankings, the Giants are the ninth-luckiest team in the NFL, while the Commanders at 27th.
Plus, the Commanders are the better team by overall DVOA despite the worse record, which supports the Luck Rankings' suggestion that they “should” be much closer in total results.
Most importantly, there’s some variation in the line at various sportsbooks, so you can get the Commanders +2.5 at DraftKings at -115 odds, while other places have the G-Men at only -1.5. That’s not enough room for a middle, but it’s enough for me to take the (slightly) better team plus the points, and hope inexplicable coaching decisions don’t give it away.
Pick: Commanders +2.5 (-115)
Commanders vs Giants Over/Under Pick
Historically, divisional Thursday Night Football games played in November or later are a highly profitable spot for under bettors. In a sample of over 80 games, the under has hit 55.3% of the time. When oddsmakers have assigned a total of 42 or fewer, like they have for Commanders vs Giants, that hit rate increases to 58.1%.
The Giants defense boasts the highest success rate in the NFL over the last five weeks. For the season's entirety, teams are going 3-and-out against the Giants at a 42% rate, which is the best mark in the NFL.
The Commanders' rushing attack ranks 29th in success rate, which means they are going to find themselves behind the sticks often and face third down regularly. That does not bode well for their chances to sustain drives when you consider they are the league’s worst offense in converting third downs into a new set of downs, with an abysmal 31% conversion rate.
With plenty of faith in his defense, I expect Giants head coach John Harbaugh to once again implement a run-heavy gameplan. Even if they aren’t having tremendous success on the ground, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy will stick with the run.
New York was not comfortably in control during its game with Philadelphia a week ago, yet in mostly neutral situations, opted to rush the ball 31 times for a grand total of 80 yards. The Giants averaged just 3.8 yards per play in their victory over the Eagles.
With Cam Skattebo returning from injury, he should get plenty of opportunities in an effort to protect J.J. McCarthy, who is likely to enter this game at less than 100% health with his own injury he suffered just four days ago.
This conservative style of play will keep the clock churning as neither team will want to commit the game-changing turnover. This will not be an entertaining game to watch if you enjoy points and explosive offense plays.
I am expecting a slog of an affair between two NFC East teams playing good defensive football in their current form.
Pick: Under 41.5
Malik Nabers Player Props
By Brit Devine
Matchups don't get much better than this.
Malik Nabers cooked Washington for 121 yards earlier this season. Puka Nacua went off 150 yards against the Commanders in Week 9. Mike Evans went for 94 yards against them recently.
Over the past two games, Nabers has lined up out wide for 80% of his snaps. Washington has allowed the eighth-most yards per game and fifth-most receptions to receivers aligned out wide pre-snap.
J.J. McCarthy has been playing well and should be able to get Nabers the ball with ease.
Pick: Malik Nabers Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Jayden Daniels Player Props
By Brit Devine
With how the Commanders are currently playing on offense (not great!), I think this line is sitting far too low, so I am betting to win 2 units.
In the Week 5 Giants-Commanders game that went to overtime, Daniels only threw the ball 25 times — so why am I hammering the over in the rematch?
Since that game — either by chance, by design, or on his own — Daniels has only rushed the ball 10 times over a three-game span. He averages eight rushing attempts per game in his career. Daniels, of course, suffered a rather gruesome left elbow injury in Week 2, so maybe that has something to do with it. Either way, if Daniels isn't opting to rush, that creates more passing opportunities.
We also have a strange situation in the Commanders RB room, as both of the early down RBs, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols, are on IR. That leaves Rachaad White (career 3.9 yards per carry) and 31-year-old pass-catching specialist Austin Ekeler (3.5 yards per carry) as Washington's RB duo. Both of these players perform much better in the passing game than the run game — it would be silly to consider a high-volume rushing attack with this duo.
Last week against the Rams, Daniels had 35 pass attempts while Commanders RBs only had 15 rushes for 44 yards. The week prior in an easy win over the spiraling Eagles, Daniels still almost got there (29 pass attempts), but McNichols was still available in that game to run the ball. Against the 49ers, Daniels had 40 pass attempts (compared to just 13 RB rushing attempts).
Even against a good Giants pass defense, the personnel the Commanders have right now all but dictates them to throw the ball in what should be a competitive game.
I would also play this to 31.5 at anything under -125 for 2 units.
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-122)
Commanders vs Giants Anytime Touchdown Prop
Isaiah Likely has seen a dip in usage since J.J. McCarthy took over at quarterback for the Giants, but it's just a two-game sample size, and the tight end still a massive red-zone threat.
The matchup against the Commanders is one of the best in the league for a tight end — they have allowed eight touchdowns to the position this season. Inclement weather is a bit of a concern here, but I have the true odds around +170.
Pick: Isaiah Likely Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
