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The Washington Commanders (2-5-1) and New York Giants (5-2-1) kick off NFL Week 10 on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Giants are favored by -2.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 41.5 total points. The Giants are -134 favorites on the moneyline and the Commanders are +114 underdogs.
Let's get into my Commanders vs Giants predictions in my Thursday Night Football preview.
Commanders vs Giants Prediction
- Commanders vs Giants pick: Stefon Diggs Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
My Commanders vs Giants best bet is the under on Stefon Diggs' receiving yards. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Commanders vs Giants Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 41.5 -100o / -120u | +114 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 41.5 -100o / -120u | -134 |
- Commanders vs Giants Spread: Commanders +1.5, Giants -1.5
- Commanders vs Giants Total: 41.5
- Commanders vs Giants Moneyline: Commanders +114, Giants -134
Commanders vs Giants Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Commanders Have the Ball
The Commanders already had arguably the worst late-game clock management blunder of the season against the Giants back in Week 5. Jayden Daniels was stopped at the end of overtime and the Commanders couldn't get lined up in time to spike the ball for a potential game-winning field goal.
Both Daniels and head coach Dan Quinn took accountability afterward.
Last week wasn’t quite as egregious, but Washington once again turned the final minute into a game management disasterclass.
The Commanders got the ball with 52 seconds left in the game, down seven points against the Rams. Daniels hit Stefon Diggs for 42 yards to get to the Rams’ 45-yard line. From there, Daniels nearly threw two game-ending interceptions.
Rams safety Quintin Lake dropped the first after Daniels expected Antonio Williams to come back on a route but didn’t. Then Rams safety Kam Curl dropped another would-be interception on a deep ball intended for Diggs.
Finally, with three seconds left and clearly one play remaining, instead of throwing a Hail Mary against a defense with only two safeties deep, Daniels scrambled and dumped it to Chig Okonkwo around the 20. That turned into a desperate lateral, a fumble and the end of the game.
Just another mix of bad coaching, bad execution and bad late-game decision making. Long story short: I'm not dying to back the Commanders right now.
The injury reports are actually pretty clean for a short week, but Washington losing center Lucas Patrick matters.
Patrick is one of just seven qualified centers who hasn’t allowed a sack this season. His 3.5% pressure rate allowed ranks fourth-lowest, with only five pressures allowed on 218 pass-blocking snaps. Patrick's replacement, Matt Gulbin, has also allowed 5 pressures, but on just 79 pass blocks.
That makes Washington more vulnerable up the middle, and it could matter even more if we get rainy/wet conditions considering how often Daniels works from shotgun. This is one of those things that probably has no impact whatsoever, but all it takes is one bad snap to completely change a game.
Late last week, Gulbin actually snapped one so high that Daniels had to jump for it before nearly throwing an interception on the play.
If we hear Al Michaels or Kirk Herbstreit mention a “bad snap” at some point tonight, I won’t be shocked.
I’m also still very high on the upside of this Giants front.
Abdul Carter is commanding a ton of double teams. Kayvon Thibodeaux is officially Thibo“due” in my Sack Luck rankings. And first-round rookie Arvell Reese just had a breakout game with three sacks and 12 tackles and already looks like a STUD.
I think Washington could struggle offensively here.
When the Giants Have the Ball
J.J. McCarthy will try to play through what looked like a pretty painful hip injury that he sustained last week. He left the game, tried throwing on the sideline, fell to the ground in obvious pain and slammed his helmet near the bench. After supplying us with the latest round of McCarthy memes, he eventually returned in the fourth quarter and appeared fine.
I expect him to play, though there’s obviously some re-injury risk.
That said, with Jameis Winston behind him, I’d have the side and total essentially the same regardless of which Giants QB is under center.
Getting Cam Skattebo back should help the run game. Devin Singletary struggled badly as the lead back last week, while for whatever reason they only gave Greg Desrosiers Jr. three carries. He turned those attempts into 20 yards and cashed both his rushing over and 20+ alt for us while looking like he gave the Giants far more juice.
If active, I wouldn’t be shocked if he mixes in again.
Washington is also weakened up front after placing both Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw on IR.
I expect the Giants to lean a little more run-heavy here, especially if the weather gets ugly and if their defense is able to keep Washington in check.
McCarthy has looked much better with the Giants, but I also think we need to pump the brakes a bit on the recent hype. His impressive fourth quarter against New Orleans came with the Giants down big and facing soft/prevent defense for much of it. His play has regressed a bit across his two starts, but I’d still put his current real-life level around QB20-25.
That’s obviously a massive improvement from what we saw during what was essentially his rookie season in Minnesota.
Commanders vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is the third straight week where I’m basically in line with the market on the side and total.
Instead of getting creative and forcing something, I’m going with the player prop market where I’m actually showing an edge: Stefon Diggs Under 39.5 receiving yards.
I already gave out Diggs' Under 17.5 longest reception at -114, and I personally bet his receiving yards Under 41.5 as well. I still like it around 39.5-40.5.
The Giants are much more of a run-funnel defense, and only one quarterback (Matthew Stafford) has thrown for 200+ yards against them all season. They’ve also been extremely vulnerable to QB scrambling. Daniels ran for 9/103/3 against them back in Week 5.
Every time Daniels scrambles, that’s one fewer potential pass attempt and one fewer potential target for his receivers.
Diggs also gets a tougher individual matchup than the surface numbers suggest.
He lines up in the slot around 65% of the time, and the Giants have allowed the second-lowest yards per route run to slot WRs this season. They also use press coverage at the second-highest rate, and Diggs’ profile changes pretty dramatically against it. His aDOT drops all the way to 4.5 yards.
Even if Diggs gets peppered with targets, I’d expect his yards per catch to be lower.
And with Treylon Burks back, Antonio Williams improving every week as a rookie I’m pretty high on, plus Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler both capable pass-catching backs, Daniels has plenty of places to spread the ball around.
I’m projecting Diggs closer to a 35.5 yard median in perfect weather. If the rain/wind actually becomes a factor, that would only add more value to the under.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
A note on why I'm passing on spreads and totals tonight:
I would lean Under 40.5, but the total has already dropped from 41.5 and 41 is a key number for NFL totals. I’d also lean Giants -2.5, but am I really ready to trust J.J. McCarthy as a favorite yet? Not really.
And this is actually a pretty good example of why my main specialty has always been props.
I’ve been writing this TNF piece for close to a decade, and it’s still one of the things I look forward to most every week because it’s the one game where I have enough time to do a complete deep dive and write everything out.
But when I handicap a game, I’m not just choosing between the spread and total.
I’m responsible for the player projections that fuel our prop tools, DFS models and my fantasy rankings/tools. That means I’m effectively looking through 50+ individual markets, trying to isolate a specific usage change, matchup or player-level edge.
And that can matter because a side or total depends on so many things that have absolutely nothing to do with whether your actual read was correct.
The backup-center angle tonight is a perfect example. I think Washington could have an issue with snaps. If a bad snap happens in the red zone and kills a drive, that’s fantastic for the under.
If the bad snap happens backed up near Washington’s own goal line and sets up a Giants touchdown, it’s suddenly terrible for the under.
Same handicap. The thing I identified actually happened. Completely different betting result.
That’s why I’ve always viewed these pieces as more than just “here’s my pick.”
Last week, I lost Jaguars team total Under 24.5. I still went 4-1 on that game and finished the week 19-10 for +4.77u.
A couple people still screamed at me on Twitter about the Jaguars pick — that's fine, have at it. But I guarantee those same people probably have no clue how much of my actual work revolves around prop markets, or how much those markets tend to move after I post them.
Props can obviously lose because of dumb variance. It happens all the time. But they also let me hone in much more directly on the specific things I spend most of my time projecting in the first place.
And tonight, instead of forcing a side or total where I’m basically in line with the market, Diggs Under 39.5 receiving yards is the bet I’m most confident in, even if/when the markets moves even closer to my 35.5 projection.
