Best NFL Prop Bets & Picks for Bengals vs. Steelers on Monday Night Football
Pictured: Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver James Washington (13), Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
- The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN). The spread is Steelers -3.5, with the over/under set at 45.
- Let's run through how to bet the best NFL prop bets featuring Joe Mixon and James Washington.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:
- Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)
Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Let’s take a look at two props worth considering for the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Best Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Bengals RB Joe Mixon
THE PICK: Under 18.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Bengals have employed a committee backfield this season. Mixon leads the team with 32 carries, but he’s been on the field for just 49% of snaps. Giovani Bernand figures to continue to eat into his workload after signing a two-year contract extension before the start of the season.
Bernard’s specialty is catching passes out of the backfield, so it’s not surprising that Mixon has struggled as a receiver. He’s managed just 10 targets through three games, and he’s turned seven receptions into just 51 yards. One of his receptions went for 33 yards, so he’s averaged just 3.0 yards on his other six receptions.
Mixon is one of the more talented backs in the league, but this line is high given his involvement through the first three weeks. I’d play the under up to -130.
Steelers WR James Washington
THE PICK: Over 35.5 receiving yards (-112)
The Steelers’ WR corps has undergone a bit of a transformation since the start of the season. Washington played on just 52% of snaps in Week 1, which ranked fourth on the team among WRs. Donte Moncrief and Ryan Switzer both saw more snaps than him in that contest, but both players have essentially disappeared since then. Neither player saw a single snap in Week 3, while Washington played a season-high 92%.
That bodes well for his ability to rack up receiving yards in this contest. He’s someone who has the ability to beat defense over the top — he’s averaged 13.9 yards per reception through the first 17 games of his career — and he should see a solid handful of targets in this contest. He should also benefit from getting to catch passes from Mason Rudolph, who was his QB at Oklahoma State.
Finally, this sets up as an excellent matchup vs. the Bengals. They rank just 24th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA through the first three weeks, and Washington should be able to take advantage of their poor cornerbacks. TE Vance McDonald is also doubtful, and his absence could result in a few additional targets for Washington.
Washington has the potential to hit the over on this prop in just one catch. I like the over up to -135.